League one relegation watch

[Emile]

Starting up a little thread for the facts and figures for relegation to see how this one develops.

The standings as of 09.01.24

13th - Charlton
14th - Port Vale
15th - Shrewsbury
16th - Wycombe
17th - Burton
18th - Wigan
19th - Cambridge
20th - Exeter
21st - Reading
22nd - Cheltenham
23rd - Carlisle
24th - Fleetwood

The odds;

24th - Carlisle 1/5
23rd - Fleetwood 1/5
22nd - Cheltenham 4/6
21st - Reading 5/4
20th - Exeter 7/5
19th - Burton 2/1 
18th - Shrewsbury 5/2
17th - Cambridge 4/1
16th - Wigan 11/2
15th - Wycombe 14/1
14th - Port Vale 16/1
13th - Charlton 25/1

Form last 5 games;

13th - Cheltenham - WDLWW - 10pts
14th - Reading WDDWD - 9pts
15th - Burton DLWWD - 8pts
16th - Cambridge LLWWD 7pts
17th - Exeter WDLWL - 7pts
18th - Wycombe DWDLD - 6pts
19th - Port Vale DLWLD - 5pts
20th - Carlisle - LWLDL - 4pts

21st - Wigan DWLLL - 4pts

22nd - Shrewsbury WLLLL - 3pts
23rd - Charlton DLLLD - 2pts
24th - Fleetwood - LLLDD - 2pts

Historic Points total needed to stay up;

22/23 - 46pts
21/22 - 41pts
20/21 - 48pts
19/20 - not considered due to pandemic
18/19 - 51pts
17/18 - 51pts
16/17 - 50pts

 

[Emile]

I think Fleetwood are as good as down and couldn't happen to a nicer club. Despite a better run of form currently Reading will also go down due to the off-field chaos and the forthcoming redundancies. I think Carlisle will also drop down as I don't think they have enough quality even with the new owners slapping a bit of cash about. I think Clarke will keep Cheltenham up looking at the upturn in form since he took over and so place for a team to go on a stinker of a run. Could be us, Cambridge, Burton, Shrewsbury or my pick, Exeter.

Bottom four;

Fleetwood
Carlisle
Reading
Exeter

[osprey]

Are you going to do the same for a Vale  promotion scenario? 😄

[Guppys left peg]

I think Fleetwood and Carlisle will drop and feel pretty comfortable saying that. The other two spots I’ll say Reading as you never know when their next points deduction is round the corner and Shrewsbury. Money is tight there it seems and a manager who failed in his previous job and not doing great there it points to them.

For the record I think we will maintain daylight over the bottom four all the way which really is the bare minimum I’d expect of us.

[valefan16]

Carlisle have had a take over and seem to be able to spend a bit more than most currently so may get out of it. Fleetwood do seem to be able to still pay for bigger name players so wouldn't rule that out.

Would say we will have a better picture in February once the window closes.

Burton and Shrewsbury seem to be flagging, Shrewsbury have got a few results but have scored only 17 goals all season and let in a lot, Burton seem to be going for an unproven manager.

 

[TJHValiant]

I think we need to do proper business in January. Charlton will probably go and get promoted now they have Clarke Harris. 

We do have some games in hand over teams above us. Lincoln for example. 

If we do get dragged in, it will be due to a poor Jan window. 

[Emile]

I thought Shrewsbury too but changed my mind to Exeter as I just think they're rubbish and unable to really change anything. 

[Bimbleabout]

Reading is a pivotal game for me, a must win. We win and theres a nice gap, lose and there isn't so nice of a gap. Big statement needed from the lads on Saturday

[valefan16]

31 minutes ago, TJHValiant said:

I think we need to do proper business in January. Charlton will probably go and get promoted now they have Clarke Harris. 

We do have some games in hand over teams above us. Lincoln for example. 

If we do get dragged in, it will be due to a poor Jan window. 

JCH wont help them defensively! They looked miles off, but oddly their forward line looked the only decent part aside from the keeper.

Lincoln could be a bit of a dark horse to slip into trouble, lost 4 drew 2 of the last 6 and seem way out of form.

[valiant_593]

I said Exeter at the start of the season and I still think they will go. Along with Fleetwood, Carlisle and I think Shrewsbury could get dragged into. Awful when they beat us. Cheltenham will stay up with DC 

[Loggerheads Sage]

1 hour ago, Emile said:

I thought Shrewsbury too but changed my mind to Exeter as I just think they're rubbish and unable to really change anything. 

I think Exeter have had 2 million " bonuses" recently,  I would expect them to be busy this month.

Huge game Saturday,  I was disappointed to see Readings recent form

[Loggerheads Sage]

When you look at the ridiculous amount of points we have lost to bottom teams, we should be nowhere near the bottom really. 

We really need a good window as the guys have been ripped out of our midfield. 

DC doing an amazing job at Cheltenham,  whether they can keep it up remains to be seen

[Osh]

The bookies rarely lose.

[osprey]

19 minutes ago, Osh said:

The bookies rarely lose.

The Vale do 😬

[MBE]

Great thread to start. 

When the Jan transfer window closes I think we will it be much clearer to pick but based on teams played my bottom 4:

Cambridge

Shrewsbury

Carlisle

Fleetwood

Leyton Orient could do a Vale and get dragged into it!