Things even out over time, not many teams start a season winless after seven games especially when playing well. Liverpool for example will lose eventually but their winning streak potentially could be many many games, Wolves will win eventually but that could be after many many games too. Regarding Port Vale & Exter law of averages would be a Vale win because we haven't won yet which is unusual and Exeter are punching above their weight mid table and have the lowest budget in the league. Basically when two equal sides meet with the results as they have been so far, it favours the Vale somewhat. Having said that we could till get smashed 😅

2 hours ago, Darren Cooksey said:

Please could you explain fully why my 'maths' is off? Your English is off here but we'll let that pass!

The odds on tossing heads twice is 1 in 4. The odds on tossing heads AFTER you have already tossed heads on the first throw is 1 in 2. Likewise the probability of beating Exeter is not dependent on previous events, its an independent, discreet event.

Simplifying the maths to only wins and losses with a 50% chance of each event, their is a 1 in 256 chance you would lose all 8 games. However if you'd lost the previous 7 the 8th game remains a 50/50 chance.

Edited September 12, 2025Sep 12 by JRC

1 hour ago, JRC said:

The odds on tossing heads twice is 1 in 4. The odds on tossing heads AFTER you have already tossed heads on the first throw is 1 in 2. Likewise the probability of beating Exeter is not dependent on previous events, its an independent, discreet event.

Simplifying the maths to only wins and losses with a 50% chance of each event, their is a 1 in 256 chance you would lose all 8 games. However if you'd lost the previous 7 the 8th game remains a 50/50 chance.

My brain just melted!

On 09/09/2025 at 00:40, sandyford_valiant said:

I agree. Failure to win in 10 league games is a major concern and we would be almost certain to be looking at a quick return to league 2. With a very tough end to the season that would be putting big pressure on the middle part of the season to get a lot of points and if we havent done that after 10 games or so i cant see that changing in october november and december.

 

3 Huge games coming up which will kind of tell us where the season is heading. Win a couple and the table looks a hell of a lot different, lose them and then something will have to change.

We cannot have two relegations in three seasons. If that happens then something is clearly going wrong at the club.

2 promotions also suggest that there are some good things going on too

On 10/09/2025 at 12:09, Dipepa delight said:

450 sold now i think thats superb already with 3 full selling days till game .

Leyton Orient bought 349 Stevenage bought 132 something like that .

I wanted go but my ladies booked my birthday present for a meal on a train ,a curry infact then off too Warners next week do some archery etc like a nice  hotel for older people i think as never been .

We have lost 1 of our last 4 away including Blackpool  and Birmingham, wins, we have every reason to go into this weekends game confident in my opinion .

Down too Moore now choose the 11, too get Vales season winning 

Will he 

Who knows 

UTV 

 

 

I think the players will have a bigger say, once they cross the white line

Some people will say the game tomorrow is not a must win game. They are right of course because technically it only becomes "must win" when it comes to actually being relegated.  However, we all know how football works. Seven league games; 2 games and no wins. Most people say 10 games is the benchmark to see where you are heading so on that theory, time is running out to change the current course of being in relegation trouble this early. We all know where that leads - calls for manager to go, possible new man in with a squad of players he mostly might not want and no real chance of signings until the next transfer window. All with the pressure to get results and points immediately in a tough league. So while Exeter is not a "must win", the clock is ticking to get a must needed win ASAP as the pressure is mounting.

I fancy us to take a least a point tomorrow.

 

5 hours ago, Phil500 said:

My brain just melted!

Come on, heads up!😆

7 hours ago, JRC said:

The odds on tossing heads twice is 1 in 4. The odds on tossing heads AFTER you have already tossed heads on the first throw is 1 in 2. Likewise the probability of beating Exeter is not dependent on previous events, its an independent, discreet event.

Simplifying the maths to only wins and losses with a 50% chance of each event, their is a 1 in 256 chance you would lose all 8 games. However if you'd lost the previous 7 the 8th game remains a 50/50 chance.

The games gone........

Its time hopefully the Black and Whites too get a saturday of joy for our fans .

500 sold past last i heard which considering the distance , and cost get there is magnificent, especially if you listen too doom merchants on here we already relegated ,even though fair say we havent deseved lose one game yet somehow we have  contrived lose 5 of the opening 7 games you dont need me go over them if attended them games too realise could gave easily have won 6 out of them in my opinion of course.

 We are so damn close too turning this round and winning weekly .

Lets hope its tomorrow as i dont see a 2nd bottom side at all .

I see a top 10 side 

UTV 

8 hours ago, JRC said:

The odds on tossing heads twice is 1 in 4. The odds on tossing heads AFTER you have already tossed heads on the first throw is 1 in 2. Likewise the probability of beating Exeter is not dependent on previous events, its an independent, discreet event.

Simplifying the maths to only wins and losses with a 50% chance of each event, their is a 1 in 256 chance you would lose all 8 games. However if you'd lost the previous 7 the 8th game remains a 50/50 chance.

Are you on nights this weekend ? 

9 hours ago, JRC said:

The odds on tossing heads twice is 1 in 4. The odds on tossing heads AFTER you have already tossed heads on the first throw is 1 in 2. Likewise the probability of beating Exeter is not dependent on previous events, its an independent, discreet event.

Simplifying the maths to only wins and losses with a 50% chance of each event, their is a 1 in 256 chance you would lose all 8 games. However if you'd lost the previous 7 the 8th game remains a 50/50 chance.

I would agree with you JRC if the game was played by inanimate objects eg Robots but it's played by humans who are affected by feelings and confidence issues etc which affect their performance.

At the end of the day it's a them vs us situation, only two horses in the race, so I see no reason why Vale cannot win and I'm sure Exeter fans feel the same about their chances.

Not a must win game for Vale but a need to win game.

Edited September 12, 2025Sep 12 by Paul6754

Get the team settled and the points will come. I prefer to have an 11 that we stick with, then others ready to take their place if their performance drops, rather than rotating 4-5 every game.

13 hours ago, Darren Cooksey said:

Things even out over time, not many teams start a season winless after seven games especially when playing well. Liverpool for example will lose eventually but their winning streak potentially could be many many games, Wolves will win eventually but that could be after many many games too. Regarding Port Vale & Exter law of averages would be a Vale win because we haven't won yet which is unusual and Exeter are punching above their weight mid table and have the lowest budget in the league. Basically when two equal sides meet with the results as they have been so far, it favours the Vale somewhat. Having said that we could till get smashed 😅

Problem is if you look at recent league one history. Both Cheltenham and Cambridge were winless for a long time in the last 2 seasons, when they eventually found some form they both struggled to claw back the points and were in the end relegated. 

Vale need to change from being unlucky in games to being lucky in games.

If players give 110% then you will eventually stop being unlucky!