League one relegation watch

[Shropshire_Valiant]

21 hours ago, Birches Head Fred said:

If Shrewsbury fail to beat Wycombe on Saturday then they are right in the mix looking at their next two away games.
Cambridge may well be safe by the time we play them but unless we pick up some wins by then it may already be irrelevant.
Plenty of twists and turns yet and considering just how bad we have been its amazing that we are still in with a shout of staying up.

Shrewsbury's 2 wins over us are basically what's keeping them out of the brown stuff(obviously they've won a few other games) but if we hadn't been so darned poor at home and trying to walk it in at their place even 1 win out of the 2 or at least a point they'd have been right in it with us.

Still it is what it is, sadly(for us at least) I think they'll scramble the 1 win or couple of points they need to stay up, as bad a run in as it looks.

[Doha]

3 minutes ago, Shropshire_Valiant said:

Shrewsbury's 2 wins over us

Same for Cheltenham, they'd be adrift if we weren't so <ovf censored>.

CS, DF to blame, ultimately.

Edited April 9 by Doha

[Doha]

Blackpool, Bristol Rovers, Carlisle wins tonight required.

[Shropshire_Valiant]

Agree 0 points from those 2(Shrewsbury & Cheltenham), 1 from Fleetwood and splitting the points with Carlisle and Burton tells you all you need to know if we do go that's basically why.

I think win the 3 home games and we have a fair to middling chance imho.

The annoying thing is a couple of (decent)signings in January and we'd have probably been comfortable (around where Bristol Rovers/Wycombe/Wigan are in the table). Can anyone honestly say that would have been too much to ask or punching above our weight for Vale budget and size of club wise? Personnally I don't think so!

Edited April 9 by Shropshire_Valiant

[Hitcher]

21 minutes ago, Shropshire_Valiant said:

Agree 0 points from those 2(Shrewsbury & Cheltenham), 1 from Fleetwood and splitting the points with Carlisle and Burton tells you all you need to know if we do go that's basically why.

I think win the 3 home games and we have a fair to middling chance imho.

The annoying thing is a couple of (decent)signings in January and we'd have probably been comfortable (around where Bristol Rovers/Wycombe/Wigan are in the table). Can anyone honestly say that would have been too much to ask or punching above our weight for Vale budget and size of club wise? Personnally I don't think so!

January was so poor wasn't it...

The Williams thing was a miss step --> Vales fault

Lopata I actually quite like, but not a massive upgrade on any of our other CBs and unfortunately injured --> Not Vales fault

Think we were hoping for Morecambe Weir but has been underwhelming in a Connor grant way --> Possibly Vales fault, maybe his Blackpool loan was a sign.

Mighten not really given a run and then injured -> Not Vales fault but struck me like the 2nd politic loan where we recognised we were short and got an attacking player to sign, with little plan on how he fits team

Will we ever know what's happening with Gore? He possibly is injured but I can't help wondering if there is a hint of the Williams situation in there. We've had a change of manager and DOF sacking --> Not entirely Vales fault but also it is a bit. Finally even if he does get fitness back he will have no connection to team having been at utd. Would you want to give him a role in last few games?

Also I know Conlon wouldn't have been the answer long term league 1, but you would have guaranteed committed performances. Could have been another body in the mix to avoid putting lowe in midfield.

Anyway such an important game tonight. If Carlisle can atleast draw with Cheltenham that will be great.

[For Us All]

41 minutes ago, Doha said:

Blackpool, Bristol Rovers, Carlisle wins tonight required.

Looks like Bristol Rovers are on the beach already,having failed to score in their last six games and taking just two points from a possible eighteen?

[Shropshire_Valiant]

Don't Bristol go to Cheltenham as well in the next 3? My only hope from that one is it's a local derby to some extent and Bristol you'd imagine will be taking 1000+ fans? You would hope they'd make some effort for them to appease their bad run a bit(even if they are safe).

[Shropshire_Valiant]

18 minutes ago, Hitcher said:

January was so poor wasn't it...

The Williams thing was a miss step --> Vales fault

Lopata I actually quite like, but not a massive upgrade on any of our other CBs and unfortunately injured --> Not Vales fault

Think we were hoping for Morecambe Weir but has been underwhelming in a Connor grant way --> Possibly Vales fault, maybe his Blackpool loan was a sign.

Mighten not really given a run and then injured -> Not Vales fault but struck me like the 2nd politic loan where we recognised we were short and got an attacking player to sign, with little plan on how he fits team

Will we ever know what's happening with Gore? He possibly is injured but I can't help wondering if there is a hint of the Williams situation in there. We've had a change of manager and DOF sacking --> Not entirely Vales fault but also it is a bit. Finally even if he does get fitness back he will have no connection to team having been at utd. Would you want to give him a role in last few games?

Also I know Conlon wouldn't have been the answer long term league 1, but you would have guaranteed committed performances. Could have been another body in the mix to avoid putting lowe in midfield.

Anyway such an important game tonight. If Carlisle can atleast draw with Cheltenham that will be great.

Some good points and generally I agree.  I think the reliance on loans has come back to bite us(2nd half of the season).  Whilst one of the things I applaud Flitcroft for was perhaps brokering those relationships with 'big clubs', and they are useful to have you should never rely on loanees as your best players. They should be a bonus to your permanent players.  OK in Arblaster and Devine they became 2 of our best players which is great, but when they inevitably leave(as they are both Championship standard players and above possibly even at 18-20 yo) it shouldn't rip the heart out of the team and leave you with a poor and unbalanced squad.  Lets be honest we weren't a brilliant side with them both playing 90% of the time.

Weir and Gore(although we've not seen him really) were never going to hit those standards.  That's no slight on either of them or Vale in the loan market but it's shows how sadly lacking the club has been in the permanent transfer market since we've been in league one.

[valefan16]

20 minutes ago, Shropshire_Valiant said:

Don't Bristol go to Cheltenham as well in the next 3? My only hope from that one is it's a local derby to some extent and Bristol you'd imagine will be taking 1000+ fans? You would hope they'd make some effort for them to appease their bad run a bit(even if they are safe).

Yeah the big issue for us is Cheltenham have Carlisle H, Bristol Rovers H, Burton A next three before three tough final fixures so it is possible they win all 3, they'd probably be bookies favourites to win each fixture, if that does happen then it would leave us needing 8 points, or likely win the three home games assuming we lose the two away due to goal difference and that is if they lost all 3 of their last games.

I think our fate lies largely with how Cheltenham do their next three games unfortunately. If they get 4-5 points max then we have a chance, otherwise winning all 3 home games and hoping we can overhaul Cambridge, Reading or Shrewsbury might come into it but thats a huge ask considering we've won 1 home game in months.

I have had a horrible feeling for a while that those two points thrown away V Fleetwood would come back to haunt us.

 

[JoeB2]

I think both us and Cheltenham will go into the last day on 44 points, with Cheltenham having a slight GD edge.

Will come down to us v Cambridge and Cheltenham at Stevenage.

 

[JoeB2]

I think Shrewsbury will be a tad nervous on 47 points with an inferior GD to both Vale and Cheltenham, and will need a point at home to Orient to guarantee survival.

[Shropshire_Valiant]

1 minute ago, JoeB2 said:

I think Shrewsbury will be a tad nervous on 47 points with an inferior GD to both Vale and Cheltenham, and will need a point at home to Orient to guarantee survival.

Wycombe Saturday is probably one they will target as well(not much to play for).  I know a number of Shrews fans who still think they are in trouble or at least squeeky bum. Fail to win Saturday and they could be right with Bolton and Charlton away to follow there's the potential they could be dragged right into the fertiliser.

[Hitcher]

49 minutes ago, valefan16 said:

Yeah the big issue for us is Cheltenham have Carlisle H, Bristol Rovers H, Burton A next three before three tough final fixures so it is possible they win all 3, they'd probably be bookies favourites to win each fixture, if that does happen then it would leave us needing 8 points, or likely win the three home games assuming we lose the two away due to goal difference and that is if they lost all 3 of their last games.

I think our fate lies largely with how Cheltenham do their next three games unfortunately. If they get 4-5 points max then we have a chance, otherwise winning all 3 home games and hoping we can overhaul Cambridge, Reading or Shrewsbury might come into it but thats a huge ask considering we've won 1 home game in months.

I have had a horrible feeling for a while that those two points thrown away V Fleetwood would come back to haunt us.

 

If you look at Rovers twitter it looks like they have sold out and fans atleast are up for it.

Also Matty Taylor desperately needs a performance. Rovers have gone 6 games without scoring and his stock is quite low with the fans.

[mr.hobblesworth]

Has Gore been spotted at the games at all? Wouldn't injured players still be expected to show their faces at at least some matches?

If not, I wonder if the injury story is a smokescreen to distract from off-the-field issues?

Edited April 9 by mr.hobblesworth

[darren1810]

1 hour ago, valefan16 said:

Yeah the big issue for us is Cheltenham have Carlisle H, Bristol Rovers H, Burton A next three before three tough final fixures so it is possible they win all 3, they'd probably be bookies favourites to win each fixture, if that does happen then it would leave us needing 8 points, or likely win the three home games assuming we lose the two away due to goal difference and that is if they lost all 3 of their last games.

I think our fate lies largely with how Cheltenham do their next three games unfortunately. If they get 4-5 points max then we have a chance, otherwise winning all 3 home games and hoping we can overhaul Cambridge, Reading or Shrewsbury might come into it but thats a huge ask considering we've won 1 home game in months.

I have had a horrible feeling for a while that those two points thrown away V Fleetwood would come back to haunt us.

 

Cheltenham 8/13 tonight. They are 19/20 to beat Bristol. That will change after tonight I'm sure.

Vale are 11/2 tomorrow and 5/6 to beat Exeter.