The definition of insanity.... (and how this relates to Andy Crosby)

[Trumpingtonvale]

4 hours ago, WV said:

20 games is a much better indicator of the quality in this league than 18 games. We have got 25pts. Multiply that tally by 46 games we get 58 points which is usually mid table. I suppose it depends on your predisposition and whether you ignore the last two games to alter the facts. 

As Andrew Lang’s originally quote goes:

‘An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination.’

Lots of unsophisticated forecasters on OVF, me included.😉

[aspin for england]

On 20/12/2023 at 18:01, Warren said:

We lost v Middlesbrough by an unlucky deflection, bad mistake in possession at the back and letting a player come inside and shoot. We were lucky that Balmer didn't gift them more goals before the manager subbed him. 

The stats are we had 39% possession making 4 shots with 1 on target. That's not going to win games. But Middlesbrough need some credit. You could see they had good defenders and showed it in the way they blocked crosses off. They only made one big mistake and it was Massey who just couldn't keep down the hard hit cross reaching out close to the line. 

Middlesbrough dominated possession. 618 passes. What stood out for me watching from Lorne Street was they were technically superior by quite a distance in controlling and manipulating the ball. They also had better player movement in the team to receive the ball in play. They could play quicker than PV in possession because of these factors. 

Middlesbrough were happy to make sure PV didn't harm them and did this by simply keeping possession. But their attacking stats are 10 shots, 5 on target and 3 goals. So they were potent. 

I can't say whether their great superiority is simply better players with more talent. Or whether better coaching plays a significant part. What did strike me, and worry me a bit, is that Walters looked out of his depth when he came on. So the point I'm making is he would improve much quicker and to a higher level at Middlesbrough.

If we are going to keep the players we bringing through and progress as a club we need coaching to be at Championship level. I don't see that presently at team level or individual level. 

Totally agree there Warren . I would say that their greater superiority WAS down to far better players with more talent , confirmed by their 22m budget , and 17 players on over 10k a week ( top earner 45k) . However a goal or half decent performance by the Vale would have been ok with some of us .

Edited December 21, 2023 by aspin for england

[Warren]

2 hours ago, aspin for england said:

Totally agree there Warren . I would say that their greater superiority WAS down to far better players with more talent , confirmed by their 22m budget , and 17 players on over 10k a week ( top earner 45k) . However a goal or half decent performance by the Vale would have been ok with some of us .

Your stats are a good measure of how hard it will be for PV to advance to that Championship level.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Warren

[LancyTony]

15 hours ago, Brian Johnson said:

You can not keep using injuries for an excuse of being on a bad run. All teams have injuries and suspensions.

We were really awful against Exeter but got a much needed win which you take everyday and then we played the best football we have done all season against Wigan and fully deserved the 3 points but then we are back to what we have been witnessing for most of the season against Middlesbrough.

 

You have a team that does well for a few games, then loses players to injuries and does badly - it doesn't matter a jot how other teams are affected, Brian - the fact is, we were doing well until we started to get the injuries that disrupted that team. Now the injured have started to get back to fitness we are improving again, We've lost one to a team in the top six of our League, having drawn against them at theirs; lost to a team in mid-table of the League above us; and won 2 against teams we needed to be beating, around us!  That's improvement over the 10 or so games beforehand. Yes - we got stage fright against Middlesbrough - having played the "best game of our season" the match before - it's not the only rime, over the decades, that Vale have been poor against teams when our expectations have been high!

[ollyandpatch]

It's a tough one.

AC's side is crap and its because of crap players he bought in. Arblaster Ripley Devine Lacavetti Sang Lowe Debra Chislett All crap or are they?

We are miles worse than last season but are actually one point worse off.

We are certain to go down but a win tomorrow and we move into the top 10.

It's simply a case of glass half full or empty.

The next 4 games including new years day are definitely season defining !

Or maybe not? 🙃

 

[Warren]

The next 4 games are very important over a short space of time. Lose all 4 or even 3 out of 4 will signal trouble. But I see the two away games as winnable. Surely against Barnsley on Tuesday, a tough game, we might be seeking redemption! Blackpool another tough home game. 

A good Christmas / New Year period would be win 2 and draw 2. We need players to stay fit and will have to use the squad. Bit concerned about midfield fitness in particular. 

Crosby can significantly strengthen his hand. But lose and plunge us close to the relegation teams - particularly Carlisle - and the pressure on him grows. 

[darren1810]

4 hours ago, Warren said:

The next 4 games are very important over a short space of time. Lose all 4 or even 3 out of 4 will signal trouble. But I see the two away games as winnable. Surely against Barnsley on Tuesday, a tough game, we might be seeking redemption! Blackpool another tough home game. 

A good Christmas / New Year period would be win 2 and draw 2. We need players to stay fit and will have to use the squad. Bit concerned about midfield fitness in particular. 

Crosby can significantly strengthen his hand. But lose and plunge us close to the relegation teams - particularly Carlisle - and the pressure on him grows. 

I think we have a nice buffer now Warren to limp to January. I'd take 4 points from the next 4 games. 

That would mean even if bottom 4 got 7 points we'd still have a decent cushion. 

[Smallthorne clampet]

On 21/12/2023 at 08:43, Warren said:

In my spectating career spanning 48 adult years now, I've seen many managers come and go at many clubs. Changing managers usually brings no medium / long term improvement. I think our latest change of managers was occasioned by the impact of adverse events in family life on job performance rather than a real wish for change. 

The system PV has played this season has driven me mad at times. Crosby has often not made it work and often made losing substitution / no substitution decisions.

He's also picked many teams with players being handicapped out of their best positions. Massey was one of the few players, picked in a sensible position, who looked up to the level of Middlesbrough on Tuesday. 

At times our play has been stunningly unentertaining - a master class in cross field passing going nowhere. Then compounded by poor marking / mistakes giving away goals we don't look like getting back. 

But despite all that, if it doesn't go badly wrong over the busy spell coming up, I'd stick with Crosby. View all this as learning. Hope his stability as a person can grow into long term management. 

That's partly because I think he's OK as a bloke representing the club well off the pitch. Partly because changing manager et al is also a big risk that mostly doesn't work. The real issue is sign better players - get better results etc. 

As Cloughy once said , you become a good manager by signing good players , and a great manager by signing great players . The problem in the modern game for a manager is who is signing the players .

[Warren]

4 minutes ago, Smallthorne clampet said:

As Cloughy once said , you become a good manager by signing good players , and a great manager by signing great players . The problem in the modern game for a manager is who is signing the players .

Or indeed not signing the players when some new influx is needed. 

[bomber]

The way things seem I can’t see us doing much if any business in January! 

[Bimbleabout]

The way things seem I can’t see us doing much if any business in January! 

Agreed, I'm not holding my breath at all for these amazing signings in January. If they happen then great but I'm not sure they will.

[smithie]

42 minutes ago, bomber said:

The way things seem I can’t see us doing much if any business in January! 

If we accumulate another 10 points by the end of January l can see the logic in holding off splashing the cash. 

I honestly don't see any team needing 50 points to stay up this season.

[Fosse69]

As Cloughy once said , you become a good manager by signing good players , and a great manager by signing great players . The problem in the modern game for a manager is who is signing the players .

Cloughie was not so good without Taylor by his side.

Sent from my SM-A715F using onevalefan mobile app

[AndyGeorge]

On 20/12/2023 at 17:14, andy jones said:

So why the hell did he try and take Boro on at their own game when even a blind man could see what the outcome would be?

I don't know, maybe he wanted to measure the gap. Their first goal came off Lowe's back and the second was a bad ball from Ripley, Massey was an inch away. Boro looked very comfortable and Vale didn't sparkle like Saturday. These are small margins though.

[LancyTony]

On 20/12/2023 at 14:34, Connolly said:

It's not exactly a official fa coaching badge... But having played football manager, I think I can see what they're trying to do behind the scene. Committing to a philosophy and that. I think it's more of a long term plan.. if so I'm assuming the academy is working to towards it too. 

Over coming years It's unlikely we will be able lure many proven championship / league 1 players, not in the peak age (21-29) with proven fitness and injury records atleast...  More likely to go to the likes of hollywood fc and other lowly clubs with bottomless pockets.

Our Academy may not be the ultimate answer, but it could a big part of the clubs future and bring sustainability, however Its unlikely too provide instant success. Perhaps with a committed philosophy, they are hoping transitioning these lads into the first team will be smoother? If I was a young player I'd want to join us over the other local clubs knowing I may get a craic. Man City & Chelsea can't sign them all..

Rest of the squad is likely to be well scouted chancers, who have the attributes and experience & character to work in the philosophy. Nothing's certain at this level but I'm trusting the scouting network for now, I'm sure rudgie is still helping the team with his experience. The likes of Chiz, for example, looks a gem of signing and a well liked character in dressing room. 

I think ollie and devine will be good patrons for us once they leave, luring other youngsters fancying a craic on loan. We are a perfect stepping stone for the talent from bigger clubs, who play a similar a philosophy.

I do think they could do with working on a better plan b tactic though. I do see small changes in games going against us, perhaps not brazen enough,  Something to work on in the next pre season perhaps. Yesterday was very disappointing, but  let's be honest Boro were clinical. 

I'm sure they'll be just disappointed as us, and will wanna bounce back. Anyway I'm probably a fool talking out my hole .. but one things for sure....

Again we go, Super Vale Away this Saturday.. the definition of insanity

In Crosby I trust

 

 

 

 

Great post showing no need for knee-jerk responses to events!