League one relegation watch

[valefan16]

35 minutes ago, valeparklife said:

I think Carlisle have had a good window and will escape.

Armstrong, Kelly, Vela, Neal, Lewis are really solid signings.

They've lost Moxon, but Vela is a good L1 player to replace him.

Georgie Kelly would have been good for us. Played a fair bit of Championship football and a really warrior leading the line.

They've had some of these players for weeks and still not improved, their fans seem on forums more to feel its built with L2 next season in mind. Fleetwood similar in getting rid of high earners to replace with loan youngsters.

[Playa Amodores]

I have two betting accounts and neither is offering any odds on relegation from L1. Last night before the close of the transfer window ppl were quoting what seemed extremely generous odds. Have the odds changed and what are the odds now and with which company

[darren1810]

3 minutes ago, Playa Amodores said:

I have two betting accounts and neither is offering any odds on relegation from L1. Last night before the close of the transfer window ppl were quoting what seemed extremely generous odds. Have the odds changed and what are the odds now and with which company

8/1 william hill

Comfortably safe by their reckoning.

 

[Trumpingtonvale]

2 hours ago, Playa Amodores said:

I have two betting accounts and neither is offering any odds on relegation from L1. Last night before the close of the transfer window ppl were quoting what seemed extremely generous odds. Have the odds changed and what are the odds now and with which company

Try Oddschecker.com. Compares all the bookie’s odds we’re still 9’s at 6 of them.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/english-league-one/relegation

 

[Mr Brightside]

It may not be much consolation but looking at the clubs from 12th down and looking at their fans reactions and the player incoming and outgoings on different sites, the following 6 (excluding us) also look weaker after the Jan transfer window:

Fleetwood/ Cheltenham/ Reading/  Burton/ Shrewsbury and Wigan.

This seems to be reflected in the bookies odds who have the following teams in front of Vale for the drop:

Fleetwood/Carlisle/Cheltenham/Reading/Shrewsbury/Burton and Cambridge

With us same odds as Wigan and Wycombe to go down.

Obviouy It all means nothing if we don't win our games, so let's get behind the team and push them on.

On a side note there's been a lot of critiscm about amount of loan players we've bought in (4 both window), looking at teams in league 1 majority have bought in 5, some 6.

UTV 

[JoeB2]

We aren't going to go down.

The more important question is whether the football operators are good enough to take us beyond where our budget will.

Taking a team with the 18th largest budget to 18th isn't much of an achievement. 

We're broadly finishing in line with our average attendance - 5th in 21/22 (4th average attendance), 18th in 22/23 (14th highest), and currently 20th (15th highest).

I guess the question at present is whether Flitcroft has helped us to overperform our budget, which we're going to have to do pretty emphatically if we want to compete in the top 6 of League 1 under the present ownership. We either outperform it by 10-12 places, or we increase our budget fairly substantially.

Whilst Flitcroft hasn't been a disaster to this point, has he done enough to suggest he is helping us to punch above our weight?

Edited February 3 by JoeB2

[Brian Johnson]

10 minutes ago, JoeB2 said:

We aren't going to go down.

The more important question is whether the football operators are good enough to take us beyond where our budget will.

Taking a team with the 18th largest budget to 18th isn't much of an achievement. 

We're broadly finishing in line with our average attendance - 5th in 21/22 (4th average attendance), 18th in 22/23 (14th highest), and currently 20th (15th highest).

I guess the question at present is whether Flitcroft has helped us to overperform our budget, which we're going to have to do pretty emphatically if we want to compete in the top 6 of League 1 under the present ownership. We either outperform it by 10-12 places, or we increase our budget fairly substantially.

Whilst Flitcroft hasn't been a disaster to this point, has he done enough to suggest he is helping us to punch above our weight?

Do we need a DOF to fight relegation and finish 18th every season?

[Mr Brightside]

24 minutes ago, JoeB2 said:

We aren't going to go down.

The more important question is whether the football operators are good enough to take us beyond where our budget will.

Taking a team with the 18th largest budget to 18th isn't much of an achievement. 

We're broadly finishing in line with our average attendance - 5th in 21/22 (4th average attendance), 18th in 22/23 (14th highest), and currently 20th (15th highest).

I guess the question at present is whether Flitcroft has helped us to overperform our budget, which we're going to have to do pretty emphatically if we want to compete in the top 6 of League 1 under the present ownership. We either outperform it by 10-12 places, or we increase our budget fairly substantially.

Whilst Flitcroft hasn't been a disaster to this point, has he done enough to suggest he is helping us to punch above our weight?

I agree.

I guess this year's footballing budget for first team may have been impacted by the pitch and extra academy investment and next seasons may he impacted if we need to sort out training pitches, however the next seasons and season after transfer activity and league positions we should see if any improvements/advancements are being made to being League 1 steady.

 

[JoeB2]

14 minutes ago, Brian Johnson said:

Do we need a DOF to fight relegation and finish 18th every season?

Stevenage signed Vadaine Oliver last week.

Hadn't started a game for Bradford this season, and hadn't scored a league goal since Jan 1st 2023.

However, Evans knows exactly what his team is going to do, and what each player in his team is going to do. Oliver fit his profile.

They're in 7th, after promotion last year, with no DoF or equivalent, on sub 5,000 crowds. Evans sets the model. Made me think whether this is an alternative route to success.

[Diego Maradona]

1 minute ago, JoeB2 said:

Stevenage signed Vadaine Oliver last week.

Hadn't started a game for Bradford this season, and hadn't scored a league goal since Jan 1st 2023.

However, Evans knows exactly what his team is going to do, and what each player in his team is going to do. Oliver fit his profile.

They're in 7th, after promotion last year, with no DoF or equivalent, on sub 5,000 crowds. Evans sets the model. Made me think whether this is an alternative route to success.

I wonder if it will be sustainable though? What happens whens Evans goes?

[1]

Looks like the same as last year to me. No progress, just a few points better than the ones that go down. Then a 3rd year would have to have significant change to reach mid table.

[Mr Brightside]

7 minutes ago, JoeB2 said:

Stevenage signed Vadaine Oliver last week.

Hadn't started a game for Bradford this season, and hadn't scored a league goal since Jan 1st 2023.

However, Evans knows exactly what his team is going to do, and what each player in his team is going to do. Oliver fit his profile.

They're in 7th, after promotion last year, with no DoF or equivalent, on sub 5,000 crowds. Evans sets the model. Made me think whether this is an alternative route to success.

Stevenage are also bankrolled by Phil Wallace who is worth £100m and for all Evans making out that they are poor are believed to have a decent players budget (which we won't know until accounts are released) and with a fit for purpose stadium built 23 years ago dont have a lot of our overheads.

 

There aren't many clubs now league 1 and above who don't have DOF, I don't know the facts or the pros and cons of having a DOF, so can't really comment on if best for a club or not.

 

[DazFred]

I always try to post glass half full posts.

However my worry is that we haven't enough goalscorers to win us enough games.

I firmly believe that 48 points stays up. That's 5 wins 3 draws. Fleetwood (twice), Shrewsbury,Cheltenham,Exeter, Lincoln,Wycombe,Orient(twice),Bristol,Burton,Northampton,Cambridge(last game)...all winnable

Reading is fated to lose,Wigan,Posh,Oxford, Borlton, Derby ,Stevenage...all games I don't feel confident we can win.

And yet there are enough games to get enough points. Formation is the key. The squad we have now should not continue with 3 CBs. We will get overrun in MF and there's too many gaps in our defence. The run of scoring 3 v Stevenage in the cup,2 v Barnsley,3 v Wigan and 3 v Blackpool,are a distant memory.

We have to put an unbeaten run together of the next 3 games before Posh away. Then the next 4 after that. Come the end of February I think we will a clearer idea of where we are....

[Bimbleabout]

We aren't going to go down.
The more important question is whether the football operators are good enough to take us beyond where our budget will.
Taking a team with the 18th largest budget to 18th isn't much of an achievement. 
We're broadly finishing in line with our average attendance - 5th in 21/22 (4th average attendance), 18th in 22/23 (14th highest), and currently 20th (15th highest).
I guess the question at present is whether Flitcroft has helped us to overperform our budget, which we're going to have to do pretty emphatically if we want to compete in the top 6 of League 1 under the present ownership. We either outperform it by 10-12 places, or we increase our budget fairly substantially.
Whilst Flitcroft hasn't been a disaster to this point, has he done enough to suggest he is helping us to punch above our weight?

Carol has stated we have an upper league 2 budget and financial status. To get that upto League one status requires the relative infrastructure and revenue streams to be morphed and put in place which is kind of what seens to be happening atm. Ie money into acadamy, pitch etc etc etc
There is a big increase in outgoings in league 1, mainly cost of players and wage bills accordingly. This is why we are where we are.
Obviously it doesn't help the immediate, but imo that comes down to the Dof and manager bringing in the right players, where ever possible and choosing the right tactics on the pitch to pacify and impress the fan base on a week to week basis. That's where we are failing atm, not by a huge amount, but enough to make the natives restless.
Someone posted the amount of players DF has got in in his tenure so far. It's a huge amount of players, where only a small amount has been relatively successful at league one level. So we literally keep searching for the bargains, hoping they will make the mark, until we can afford our league 1 budget and not upper league two budget.
Stay up this season and it's another foot forward to this, however we need a positive product on the pitch to keep us happy in the meantime.
UTV KTF

[Trumpingtonvale]

8 minutes ago, DazFred said:

I always try to post glass half full posts.

However my worry is that we haven't enough goalscorers to win us enough games.

I firmly believe that 48 points stays up. That's 5 wins 3 draws. Fleetwood (twice), Shrewsbury,Cheltenham,Exeter, Lincoln,Wycombe,Orient(twice),Bristol,Burton,Northampton,Cambridge(last game)...all winnable

Reading is fated to lose,Wigan,Posh,Oxford, Borlton, Derby ,Stevenage...all games I don't feel confident we can win.

And yet there are enough games to get enough points. Formation is the key. The squad we have now should not continue with 3 CBs. We will get overrun in MF and there's too many gaps in our defence. The run of scoring 3 v Stevenage in the cup,2 v Barnsley,3 v Wigan and 3 v Blackpool,are a distant memory.

We have to put an unbeaten run together of the next 3 games before Posh away. Then the next 4 after that. Come the end of February I think we will a clearer idea of where we are....

All those clubs’ having similar worries (they may have plenty of forwards/strikers but not goal scorers) too DF. You forgot the 3 v Charlton too which was our last full game previous to last week - may feel like a distant memory may because of the abandonment and postponement in between.