2 hours ago, wotsyobeef said:

Not a knowledgeable punter but I think this is what you are after

https://betting.betfair.com/how-to-use-betfair-exchange/beginner-guides/placing-a-lay-bet-010819-51.html

That’s very interesting, thank you, WYB.

 I don’t fully understand how I set it up, but I think it means that I offer a bet that Vale won’t be relegated this coming season, and then other people may choose to bet against my position.

But who decides the stakes and the odds?

For instance, if I paid in £100 to my account, then that must be the limit of the bets I will accept.

But do I then decide the odds being offered?

The bookies have Vale at 7/4 to be relegated, so if there were a punter who bet £10 on that outcome they  would get back £17.50 plus their £10 stake.

So would reasonable odds on Vale NOT being relegated be  7/4, or less, or more?

Sorry for all the questions, but I don’t understand this system properly.

8 hours ago, Alan Vit said:

That’s very interesting, thank you, WYB.

 I don’t fully understand how I set it up, but I think it means that I offer a bet that Vale won’t be relegated this coming season, and then other people may choose to bet against my position.

But who decides the stakes and the odds?

For instance, if I paid in £100 to my account, then that must be the limit of the bets I will accept.

But do I then decide the odds being offered?

The bookies have Vale at 7/4 to be relegated, so if there were a punter who bet £10 on that outcome they  would get back £17.50 plus their £10 stake.

So would reasonable odds on Vale NOT being relegated be  7/4, or less, or more?

Sorry for all the questions, but I don’t understand this system properly.

If you don't understand, it is probably not a good idea to get involved. Just saying...

2 hours ago, Rampant Zebra said:

If you don't understand, it is probably not a good idea to get involved. Just saying...

RZ,

I appreciate your kind concern.

But if everyone followed that approach, no one would ever stretch themselves to try something new which they didn't at first understand.

11 hours ago, Alan Vit said:

do I then decide the odds being offered?

The bookies have Vale at 7/4 to be relegated, so if there were a punter who bet £10 on that outcome they would get back £17.50 plus their £10 stake.

So would reasonable odds on Vale NOT being relegated be  7/4, or less, or more?

I think the answer must be that I do decide the odds which I would offer.

Then other people decide if those odds are good enough to tempt them to wager on the bet being offered.

On further thought, it seems to me that reasonable odds on Vale NOT being relegated would be the same as the bookies.

They have Vale at 7/4 to be relegated, so I would offer Vale at 7/4 not to be relegated.

And punters who thought that Vale would be one of the relegated teams would bet against the market I had created.

So if there were a punter who bet £10 on Vale to be relegated and they won, they would get back £17.50.

No need to return their £10 stake, since they would simply keep it in their own kitty.

Whereas if a punter bet £10 on Vale to be relegated and they lost, I would receive the £10 they had bet.

I'd welcome further reviews of this, my current best understanding.

Edited July 7, 2025Jul 7 by Alan Vit

Alan, I'm a bit confused what you're trying to achieve here. You're making betting sound more complicated than it is. 

12 minutes ago, Alan Vit said:

11 hours ago, Alan Vit said:

So would reasonable odds on Vale NOT being relegated be  7/4, or less, or more?

I think the answer must be that I do decide the odds which I would offer.

Just.. no. 

It depends really on the market and the current conditions on bets being placed. Not as much to do with likelihood as it is what people are currently prepared to put down. 

I don't do fractional betting, hurts my head, but if enough sums of money is put down on a particular wager then the odds shorten. Likewise others in the same market might make the odds longer, or even the current conditions in which that bet is being placed. 

It's not really about reasonable, it's whatever generally makes the house the most money. 

@NW9Valiant

Everything you say pertains to betting in a market which the bookies create and update.

This discussion is about how a punter could create (and then update) a market which doesn't yet exist, as per the instructions kindly provided by @wotsyobeef-

Just a moment...

BETTING.BETFAIR.COM

And it is somewhat complicated to understand fully, which is what I'm still trying to do.

Edited July 7, 2025Jul 7 by Alan Vit

Can't see the market(to be relegated) on Betfair exchange yet Alan but when it's there you can go on there and see what other people are offering. At that point you can place a bet (which matches you up with an offer that someone else is offering) or post your own offer...and then you are waiting for someone to come along and accept your offer.

 

Betfair matches users...backers (this is the traditional bet...eg vale to be relegated) and layers (in essence you become the bookmaker...so you are laying vale to be relegated and would win if vale stay up)

 

Working out the price to offer is tricky because the 7/4 you are seeing has the bookmakers profit margin built in. Betfair exchange often ends up being a "truer" price but this means there's a lot more sharks about sniffing out value.

 

Generally a two way market (there's only two possible outcomes) like this, where a price is 7/4 for outcome 1 then if you convert to decimal and do 100/decimal odds...you'll get a percentage (36.36 in this case). The two percentages must equal 100 or more to be a balanced book. 

Below 100 and people can guarantee a profit by backing both sides of the market. Any percentage points above 100 is the bookmakers profit margin (this is how they make money)

Exactly 100 is a completely "fair" book as long as the odds accurately reflect the chance of that outcome happening.

 

4/7 as a book percentage is 63.63 which gives you your 100. If a bookmaker was offering this, they'll build in some profit which means they'd likely be 4/9 or worse for vale to stay up. 

 

I do think that you'll be able to back this with a traditional bookies closer to the season starting. Be careful on the exchanges as you say, your "stake" is what you are offering the backer to win. 

 

 

Bit garbled sorry but this gives you a bit more to go off.

 

 

Just to add, I've never created or requested a market on Betfair so not sure how that happens. They will release them in due course I'm sure.

 

And a few random bullet points for extra context...

-betfair takes a commission, I'm not sure what it is, it's years since I've used the exchange.

-they more money being traded in a market the "truer" the price is generally. This market won't get much money being traded at all, I would think. 

 

 

If you've got two possible outcomes and one is 7/4, the other one is going to be about 2/5 with a bookmaker. 

7/4 = implied probability of ~36.4%

2/5 = implied probablity of ~71.4%

This is ~107.8% for example...a fair book would add up to 100%, but bookmakers want to make money so they build in an overround. The closer to 100% it is, the better for the punter and the higher it is, the more profit is baked in for the bookies.

9 minutes ago, Alan Vit said:

@NW9Valiant

Everything you say pertains to betting in a market which the bookies create and update.

This discussion is about how a punter could create (and then update) a market which doesn't yet exist, as per the instructions kindly provided by @wotsyobeef-

Just a moment...

BETTING.BETFAIR.COM

And it is somewhat complicated to understand fully, which is what I'm still trying to do.

Right - sorry! I get you now. 🙂 

Odds mean nothing otherwise the favourites to go up or down would be accurate every single time

There's another 3 weeks until the start of the season so players/managers will come and go

I think Vales key to doing well will be their home form as they won't win 10 and only lose 5 away games next season IMO

That said,I think squad depth is sufficient to stay up

Mansfield,Stevenage,Exeter,Northampton,Burton and the other promoted teams are the ones I think we will finish above

Edited July 7, 2025Jul 7 by DazFred

Alan Vit,please refer to Regal  Beagle’s and Rory’ s posts.If you can get 7/4 NOW about both scenarios please let me know.I can then order my yacht.😂😉🤧

1 hour ago, Rory said:

If you've got two possible outcomes and one is 7/4, the other one is going to be about 2/5 with a bookmaker. 

7/4 = implied probability of ~36.4%

2/5 = implied probablity of ~71.4%

This is ~107.8% for example...a fair book would add up to 100%, but bookmakers want to make money so they build in an overround. The closer to 100% it is, the better for the punter and the higher it is, the more profit is baked in for the bookies.

want a job?

2 hours ago, Alan Vit said:

They have Vale at 7/4 to be relegated, so I would offer Vale at 7/4 not to be relegated.
 

That, my friend, is called an Arb. 

I place £10 on Vale to stay up at 7/4 (2.75)

I place £10 on Vale to go down at 7/4 (2.75)

I stake £20 and will guarantee a return of £27.50 regardless of outcome. 

Why?

There's a 100% probability that Vale will either stay up or go down. Your odds imply that there's a 36.36% chance of Vale staying up, and a 36.36% chance of Vale going down... leaving a 27.28% hole in your book. As an example, if you thought there's a 50% chance of Vale staying up and a 50% chance of Vale staying down - fair odds would be 1/1 (2.0) (50%) on each side, the same as a heads/tails coin flip. Offering these odds would be pretty boring over a big enough sample size because both you and the punter would break even. So, as others have explained already, you'd add an overround to build in a long term margin on the bets - ie offer 19/20 (1.95) (51.28%) on each side. 

In the industry we extensively use automatic anti-arb features in our algorithms to prevent arbs with other bookmakers, preventing humans (or 99% of the time, bots) from churning away tiny % arbs. 

2 hours ago, Howjy04 said:

Alan Vit,please refer to Regal  Beagle’s and Rory’ s posts.If you can get 7/4 NOW about both scenarios please let me know.I can then order my yacht.😂😉🤧

Yeah, alright, Captain Sark on yer bark ... ⛵🙂

My first version of my post above quoted the bookies offering 7/4 that Vale would be relegated.

And then posited offering 4/7 via Betfair that Vale would not be relegated.

But I ended up talking myself round in circles and then edited it (wrongly) to be 7/4 on both sides.

That's exactly why I'm talking it through on here rather than immediately rushing to my financial doom on Betfair.