1 hour ago, jjvale_03 said:

That, my friend, is called an Arb. 

I place £10 on Vale to stay up at 7/4 (2.75)

I place £10 on Vale to go down at 7/4 (2.75)

I stake £20 and will guarantee a return of £27.50 regardless of outcome. 

Why?

There's a 100% probability that Vale will either stay up or go down. Your odds imply that there's a 36.36% chance of Vale staying up, and a 36.36% chance of Vale going down... leaving a 27.28% hole in your book. As an example, if you thought there's a 50% chance of Vale staying up and a 50% chance of Vale staying down - fair odds would be 1/1 (2.0) (50%) on each side, the same as a heads/tails coin flip. Offering these odds would be pretty boring over a big enough sample size because both you and the punter would break even. So, as others have explained already, you'd add an overround to build in a long term margin on the bets - ie offer 19/20 (1.95) (51.28%) on each side. 

In the industry we extensively use automatic anti-arb features in our algorithms to prevent arbs with other bookmakers, preventing humans (or 99% of the time, bots) from churning away tiny % arbs. 

35 minutes ago, Alan Vit said:

Yeah, alright, Captain Sark on yer bark ... ⛵🙂

My first version of my post above quoted the bookies offering 7/4 that Vale would be relegated.

And then posited offering 4/7 via Betfair that Vale would not be relegated.

But I ended up talking myself round in circles and then edited it (wrongly) to be 7/4 on both sides.

That's exactly why I'm talking it through on here rather than immediately rushing to my financial doom on Betfair.

If Vale lose their first 2 games you would probably get 7/4 to stay up.Aye aye Roger the cabin boy.

Just a quick one, is anybody else having problems with their loyalty points.  Mine have reduced by approximately 100 even after having my new season tickets points applied ?

3 minutes ago, PVP said:

Just a quick one, is anybody else having problems with their loyalty points.  Mine have reduced by approximately 100 even after having my new season tickets points applied ?

If those 100 points were from the season before last there is your answer. 

2 minutes ago, NW9Valiant said:

If those 100 points were from the season before last there is your answer. 

For example, I ended last season on 300 points.  I have bought a seson ticket for the upcoming season and my points have been applied so I should be on approx 450 points and my account now says 200 points ?????

14 minutes ago, PVP said:

For example, I ended last season on 300 points.  I have bought a seson ticket for the upcoming season and my points have been applied so I should be on approx 450 points and my account now says 200 points ?????

Points only last for 2 seasons, so lets say you have 

end of 23-24: 100 points

end of 24-25: 250 points (includes the 100 you had from 23-24)

start of 25-26: 150 points (100 points from 23-24 have now expired, 150 from last season carry over) 

2 minutes ago, NW9Valiant said:

Points only last for 2 seasons, so lets say you have 

end of 23-24: 100 points

end of 24-25: 250 points (includes the 100 you had from 23-24)

start of 25-26: 150 points (100 points from 23-24 have now expired, 150 from last season carry over) 

It doesnt make sense, my sons points have gone up (+150) and we have been to exactly the same games and season tickets next to each other over this time period ?

1 hour ago, Alan Vit said:

Yeah, alright, Captain Sark on yer bark ... ⛵🙂

My first version of my post above quoted the bookies offering 7/4 that Vale would be relegated.

And then posited offering 4/7 via Betfair that Vale would not be relegated.

But I ended up talking myself round in circles and then edited it (wrongly) to be 7/4 on both sides.

That's exactly why I'm talking it through on here rather than immediately rushing to my financial doom on Betfair.

Just let me know when you're about to pull the trigger on your betfair activity.

@jjvale_03

Or I could just post my bank account name, password and PIN here for you, to save time ... 

I think, to have a better chance of getting a return, I'd have to nudge the odds slightly in my favour, offering, for example, 1/2 or 4/9 via Betfair that Vale would not be relegated.

But I'm guessing that offering would not attract much interest across the market.

2 hours ago, NW9Valiant said:

Points only last for 2 seasons, so lets say you have 

end of 23-24: 100 points

end of 24-25: 250 points (includes the 100 you had from 23-24)

start of 25-26: 150 points (100 points from 23-24 have now expired, 150 from last season carry over) 

What a load of c___🤔

3 hours ago, Mellor! said:

LOVE betting nerds ME....‼️❤️❤️❤️

5 hours ago, PVP said:

It doesnt make sense, my sons points have gone up (+150) and we have been to exactly the same games and season tickets next to each other over this time period ?

As has been said above only 2 years points are totalled so you lose points that are 3 years old.  Strange quirk too with your sons points going up a mate of mine found the same, his went down and his lads increased.  He doesn't know why either.

I've got a mate linked to me. He's been to half the games I have over the last 2 seasons, but now has 110 points more than me. Not sure if they are still sorting through the points or if they've just ballsed up 🤷‍♂️

1 hour ago, Mellor! said:

I've got a mate linked to me. He's been to half the games I have over the last 2 seasons, but now has 110 points more than me. Not sure if they are still sorting through the points or if they've just ballsed up 🤷‍♂️

Wouldn't surprise me if they balls it up for some 😄 

I have 280. 

Quote

Priority Points System

Priority points are accrued through purchasing match tickets ONLY for league and cup competitive games.

• Season Tickets: 150 points are awarded for the purchase of a 2025/26 season ticket in alignment with the club's 150th anniversary season. For the 2023/24 and 2024/25 seasons, 125 points were given to season ticket holders.

 

• Match Tickets: 5 points can be earned for home competitive fixtures, and 10 points for away competitive games. (Season ticket holders won't earn points for home league games, as they receive the full 150 points at the start of the season. However, they can earn the additional 5 points for cup home games).

 

Away Ticket Priority

Below is an example of how away tickets work with regards to priority points. This is only an example, and the points threshold will be set on a game-by-game basis, depending on allocation and demand.

Priority Points examples...

Monday 12pm - 450 Points
Tuesday 12pm - 350 Points
Wednesday 12pm - 300 Points
Thursday 12pm - 250 Points
Friday 12pm - 150 Points
Saturday 9am - General Sale

So that's 150 for this season's ST, 125 for last season, +5 points for the Wrexham EFL Trophy game or the FA Cup game but no points for one of those for some reason.... (I attended Wimbledon away but that was a comp hospitality ticket through being part of a sponsor delegation at work)

I do wonder how the points work for buying extra tickets for high demand games - do you just get the +5 or +10 points for a single ticket, or all of them if they are assigned to yourself. 

Edited July 7, 2025Jul 7 by NW9Valiant

On 06/07/2025 at 14:26, Alan Vit said:

SkyBet have just confirmed that they don't offer this bet now, but may consider introducing such a market.

But I won't hold my breath.

Does Spireite till i die still visit us?

All suggestions for placing such a bet would be welcomed.

Hi Alan,

 

I'll be lumping on the vale @ 10/11 to finish above Burton.......

 

On a more positive note, I am considering a bet on the Vale for a top 12 finish......

Seeking out the odds for this but I reckon it will be around the 5/2 mark.....