Gauci

            John  Humphreys   Hall

Clarke  Croasdale* Byers Walters   Gordon 

                      Garrity                     

                             New CF

(* or Ojo)

Having had time to process the result of Saturday more, I’m feeling a bit more optimistic.

Can’t remember who shared it on the Doncaster match thread, but our XG stats are actually good. Now obviously there are problems with XG, but it does give a somewhat useful indicator of underlying performance.

We currently have the 6th highest XG/game in the league, and the 5th lowest (best) XGA (expected goals allowed) in the league. So we are creating lots of chances and also not giving away a lot of chances.

Our current goals conceded per game is broadly in line with the XGA - 1 goal per game compared to 1.15 XGA. Conceding 1 goal per game is not bad and has us joint 8th. Our defence is doing its job.

The problem is with our XG. We are currently underperforming by a whopping 1.11, meaning we are scoring 0.4 goals per game against an XG of 1.51. 
By comparison, the next worst is Bolton, who are underperforming by 0.78. That’s a massive difference.

Obviously this can be influenced by the ability of your forwards - better forwards will convert more chances. However there is also an element of luck in there.

It’s highly unlikely we will remain this far outside the mean for the remainder of the season. There should be some regression back to the mean. And since our underlying numbers are ok, I’m confident results will come.

16 minutes ago, Powerline said:

Having had time to process the result of Saturday more, I’m feeling a bit more optimistic.

Can’t remember who shared it on the Doncaster match thread, but our XG stats are actually good. Now obviously there are problems with XG, but it does give a somewhat useful indicator of underlying performance.

We currently have the 6th highest XG/game in the league, and the 5th lowest (best) XGA (expected goals allowed) in the league. So we are creating lots of chances and also not giving away a lot of chances.

Our current goals conceded per game is broadly in line with the XGA - 1 goal per game compared to 1.15 XGA. Conceding 1 goal per game is not bad and has us joint 8th. Our defence is doing its job.

The problem is with our XG. We are currently underperforming by a whopping 1.11, meaning we are scoring 0.4 goals per game against an XG of 1.51. 
By comparison, the next worst is Bolton, who are underperforming by 0.78. That’s a massive difference.

Obviously this can be influenced by the ability of your forwards - better forwards will convert more chances. However there is also an element of luck in there.

It’s highly unlikely we will remain this far outside the mean for the remainder of the season. There should be some regression back to the mean. And since our underlying numbers are ok, I’m confident results will come.

So, in a nutshell, we need someone to put it in the onion bag!

12 minutes ago, Diego Maradona said:

So, in a nutshell, we need someone to put it in the onion bag!

Correct, but even without that we are underperforming by a ridiculous amount so there should be some regression back closer to the mean.

Edited August 25, 2025Aug 25 by Powerline

On 24/08/2025 at 14:13, TJHValiant said:

Even if we did sign Cole, he has been sitting on his ass for months. Won’t be match fit until Christmas. As a signing it gives me Uche vibes, much better than Uche, but equally he is going to cost more. 

Dunner matter if he's bin on a trek to Snowdonia ,

He can score goals at this level .

Edited August 25, 2025Aug 25 by Nippy Naylor

6 hours ago, Powerline said:

Having had time to process the result of Saturday more, I’m feeling a bit more optimistic.

Can’t remember who shared it on the Doncaster match thread, but our XG stats are actually good. Now obviously there are problems with XG, but it does give a somewhat useful indicator of underlying performance.

We currently have the 6th highest XG/game in the league, and the 5th lowest (best) XGA (expected goals allowed) in the league. So we are creating lots of chances and also not giving away a lot of chances.

Our current goals conceded per game is broadly in line with the XGA - 1 goal per game compared to 1.15 XGA. Conceding 1 goal per game is not bad and has us joint 8th. Our defence is doing its job.

The problem is with our XG. We are currently underperforming by a whopping 1.11, meaning we are scoring 0.4 goals per game against an XG of 1.51. 
By comparison, the next worst is Bolton, who are underperforming by 0.78. That’s a massive difference.

Obviously this can be influenced by the ability of your forwards - better forwards will convert more chances. However there is also an element of luck in there.

It’s highly unlikely we will remain this far outside the mean for the remainder of the season. There should be some regression back to the mean. And since our underlying numbers are ok, I’m confident results will come.

Got about as much relevance as quoting possession stats.

The only stat that counts ...

They score we dont!

Well sat you cannot really choose a side as no one knows who be in the building or out so too speak but ill go with this as away we have once again being really good 0 goals conceded in last 2 and goal attempts galore 

   Gucci 

John Debrah Hall 

Gabriel      Byers  Headley    

       Shipley Croasdale 

     New striker Curtis (Paton )depends which one stakes a claim tonight .

Thsts how id go Shipley scored a screamer against these v Shrewsbury so lets hope he can do it again .

Byers back so Vale to take full control of game .

UTV 

 

           

 

Edited August 26, 2025Aug 26 by Dipepa delight

Byers is suspended 

Correction m mistake ! 🤫

8 hours ago, andy jones said:

Got about as much relevance as quoting possession stats.

The only stat that counts ...

They score we dont!

You would agree Dave that sides that regularly create good chances and don't allow the opposition to create good chances will, in the long run, score more goals than they concede?

15 hours ago, Powerline said:

Correct, but even without that we are underperforming by a ridiculous amount so there should be some regression back closer to the mean.

That would be a good chant to the tune of “you’re not singing anymore.” We expect regression back closer to the mean.

If we can sign someone who knows where the net is before Saturday we have a good chance. If not, it will play similar to the Doncaster game. 

21 minutes ago, valiant_593 said:

If we can sign someone who knows where the net is before Saturday we have a good chance. If not, it will play similar to the Doncaster game. 

Maybe this time we will score instead of hitting the bar...

Gauci in goal surely

Interesting regarding the XG XA and XPts. 
Basically we have produced the chances and defended enough that we should be top.