A 2nd referendum

[davidatpreston]

Have you read my earlier posts?

You cannot entirely blame Brexit for the devaluation of the pound. It was over valued in the first place and has been declining since October 2015 well before a referendum was even announced. It is still worth more against the euro than it was 8 years ago. It will rise again but over the last 10 years it has averaged at around €1.20 to the pound when today it is €1.17 to the pound.

 

 

Phil, don't want to pick an argument with you but for part of that period I was working in a job where I needed to be very aware of USD/£ rates.

In 2007 there was actually a period where it was over $2 to the £1 and from 2008 to Brexit mid-2016 it never averaged a single month under 41.30, mostly being between 1.40 to 1.65.

There is no way the average for that 10 year period could be under 1.40, let alone 1.20, and whilst you are correct that it could rise again, it could also fall further.

The monthly rates for every year are here -

 

http://www.x-rates.com/average/?from=GBP&to=USD&amount=1&year=2016

 

The rate did not change much from December 2015 to June 2016 either, although the dollar was very cheap to buy for a period in the summer of 2015, so you are correct about a bit of a decline compared to those 3 months.

 

I don't know and am not making any connection to Brexit, but just posting accurate figures. UTV.

[philpvfc]

I was discussing the pound against the euro. The Dollar has performed particularly well against all currencies in the last 18 months.

[davidatpreston]

I was discussing the pound against the euro. The Dollar has performed particularly well against all currencies in the last 18 months.

 

My mistake, and apologies, but I read the opening part of your post 865 which seemed to be about, and mention the dollar/£1 rate.

I was concentrating more on the rather more important matter of the day, Vale winning, which is great but not used to having to hang on for so long and badly needing a second goal. That's my lame excuse anyway.

 

Can you conjour up a Cecilia second goal to improve the relegation exchange rate early in the second half please ? utv

[philpvfc]

I'd accept a 1-0 win with Oldham, Gillingham, Shrewsbury and Bury all losing.

[davidatpreston]

I'd accept a 1-0 win with Oldham, Gillingham, Shrewsbury and Bury all losing.

 

Well, so far Shrews and Gills obliging - most important that we keep the 3 pts though. Agonising hanging on like this and if Vale could make it 2-0 then I could relax a lot more.

 

wow,,, as I write 2-0

 

 

bet I bet they get one back - we always let that happen, however EAGLES has made it look a lot better.

[davidatpreston]

Oldham losing 0-1 at Southend now.

 

 

I do wish we'd started this run for the play-offs a few matches earlier.

[Paul6754]

Have you read my earlier posts?

You cannot entirely blame Brexit for the devaluation of the pound. It was over valued in the first place and has been declining since October 2015 well before a referendum was even announced. It is still worth more against the euro than it was 8 years ago. It will rise again but over the last 10 years it has averaged at around €1.20 to the pound when today it is €1.17 to the pound.

 

I'm just going to stick to the GBP/$ exchange rate for the sake of clarity, also this currency relationship has a large effect on UK inflation rate 'cause oil/fuel is paid for in US dollars.

 

The clearest evidence that Brexit did affect the GBP/$ exchange rate relatively massively is the precipitous drop in such a short time from 23rd Jun of 1.4789 (day of the Brexit vote) to 1.32 on 28th June, a huge drop in such a short time. Add to that the resulting increase in inflation rate post Brexit vote which has caused a further slight depreciation in the GBP's value to 1.2545, all this was predicted by the money men on a Brexit out vote.

 

My post was in reply to your point, " I was trying to say was that the politicians pushing for remain were claiming interest rates will go up, house prices will fall and the stock market will crash. I guess all this can still happen but at the moment there are no signs of this being the case in fact quite the opposite."

 

As I said above there are signs of increasing pressure in the UK economy, the UK inflation rate is increasing putting further pressure on the pound which may result in interest rates being increased by the Bank of England, all this takes time to trickle down to the economy.

[philpvfc]

You blame Brexit then. The stock market had one of its biggest crashes after the Brexit vote now look at it. Strange that the Dollar is doing remarkably well against the Euro and other currencies as well guess that must be because of Brexit!!!

[Paul6754]

You blame Brexit then. The stock market had one of its biggest crashes after the Brexit vote now look at it. Strange that the Dollar is doing remarkably well against the Euro and other currencies as well guess that must be because of Brexit!!!

 

Brexit did 'cause the precipitous drop in the value of the pound against the US dollar Jun 23-Jun 28th, the drop was more than coincidence and more than normal fluctuation. The increase in the FTSE post Brexit shows that what drives the pound is/can be different from what drives the FTSE.

 

The strength of the US dollar is mainly down to the current strength of the US economy as evinced by the major indicators, employment levels, manufacturing output, company profits etc.

[Paul6754]

Phil, There was also the same precipitous fall in the value of the pound/Euro exchange rate post Brexit, 23rd June 1 GBP = 1.35 Euro whereas on 28 June 1 GBP = 1.20083 Euro.

 

I was in Spain twice last year with my elderley parents, once in Jan 2016 where we got 1.27 Euros for a pound, the second time in October where we got 1.11. In October the topic of conversation amongst everyone but particularly the elderley people was the poor exchange rate and how few Euros they got for their pounds, they were not happy bunnies. It was quite ironic but sad.

[For Us All]

Phil, There was also the same precipitous fall in the value of the pound/Euro exchange rate post Brexit, 23rd June 1 GBP = 1.35 Euro whereas on 28 June 1 GBP = 1.20083 Euro.

 

I was in Spain twice last year with my elderley parents, once in Jan 2016 where we got 1.27 Euros for a pound, the second time in October where we got 1.11. In October the topic of conversation amongst everyone but particularly the elderley people was the poor exchange rate and how few Euros they got for their pounds, they were not happy bunnies. It was quite ironic but sad.

 

Yes,that could be a problem going forward for tourism into Europe.I am currently looking at future long-haul excursions that offer better exchange rates plus AI deals.

[philpvfc]

Trouble is the pound has devalued against all currencies. 2 years ago I got over 10k to the pound in Croatia now it's 8.77 and over 60b in Thailand, now its worth 43. The pound is starting to recover but I don't think it's going to get back to what it was 2 years ago, well not for a long time anyway. Maybe when we leave the EU.

[Paul6754]

Trouble is the pound has devalued against all currencies. 2 years ago I got over 10k to the pound in Croatia now it's 8.77 and over 60b in Thailand, now its worth 43. The pound is starting to recover but I don't think it's going to get back to what it was 2 years ago, well not for a long time anyway. Maybe when we leave the EU.

 

Yep, the money men perceive the UK economy will shrink/struggle during the next few years due to Brexit hence the pound has fallen against many currencies, they anticipate the pound will wobble around 1.2-1.3ish to the US dollar. I hope the pound goes up but I too think it will take some time.

[Paul6754]

Yes,that could be a problem going forward for tourism into Europe.I am currently looking at future long-haul excursions that offer better exchange rates plus AI deals.

 

There's SpaceX to the moon or has Branson got something up his sleeve......lol

[Regal Beagle]

Is the devaluation of the pound due to brexit, or is it part of Smurf's master plan?

 

I just don't know anymore.