Odds for Vale v Millwall

[davidatpreston]

I think we are all used to Vale being tipped for relegation at the start of each season, but I am at a loss to understand what is going on for the Vale v Millwall fixture this week with bookies.

 

Vale, with 100 per cent home record in 6th place v Millwall in 14th place with a mediocre away record and a shocking loss last match, no win in the last four.

 

Pretty clear to me that Vale should be favourites to win - Millwall also have a 5-1 away defeat at Peterboro not long ago but on both Betfair and Skybet (and presumably all other bookies) the Londoners are clear favourites.

 

Why ? Does someone know something we don't - on Betfair Vale are 3.30 and Millwall 2.24 - a very big difference, (that means £1 on Vale would return £3.30 if they win, £1 on Millwall only £2.24 both include stake).

 

Millwalls team news is not good either after a sending off v Rochdale at the weekend-

 

 

Millwall will be without midfielder Ben Thompson through suspension after he was sent off in Saturday's 3-2 defeat to Rochdale for two yellow cards.

 

Forward Aiden O'Brien might also be missing after limping off in the first half against Rochdale, with the Irishman set to undergo a scan before Tuesday to determine the severity of the injury.

 

Calum Butcher and Jimmy Abdou are options to replace Thompson in midfield, while one of David Worrall and Fred Onyedinma could take over from O'Brien if he fails to make it.

 

Defender Joe Martin is back in contention after missing the Rochdale loss through suspension, but Shaun Cummings (knee) and Shaun Hutchinson (hamstring) are still sidelined due to injury.

Read more at http://www.football.co.uk/port-vale/port-vale-v-millwall-at-vale-park-match-preview/7813719/#IagCKHUT4WVYXHf6.99

 

 

Is it possible something VERY BAD is happening with this match, which I dare not even type ? It makes no sense to think anything else - the odds are dictated by bets made and there are some very strange bets being made to produce these odds.

 

Any sensible and logical theories anyone - look at the league table and current form and see if I have missed something.

[Regal Beagle]

11/8 to beat rock bottom cov at home too, and we should have grant back for that one. Absolutely insane that we are not odds on there.

 

I don't think there is anything untoward in the millwall prices, they still have an incredible strike force for this league and are certainly under achieving. Although I will definitely be investing in vale to win with our home form this season it looks great value.

[butt lane vale fan]

Prob because law of averages state will are guaranteed to drop points at home soon. Millwall were also the 1st team win at VP last Season. And then the usual moaners will be out in force

[sheffield61]

Before the odds were published I didn't think the bookies could split the two sides & expected around 13/8 for both the home & the away win. To find the Vale as big as 12/5 (Lads), seems amazing value. Whatever the result, Millwall as low as 11/10 represents daylight robbery, IMO....😉

[beasty77]

With William Hill, Millwall are still 3rd favs for promotion, where were expected to finish 15th as it stands with the bookies. Obviously the bookies still think were punching well above our weight. But a Millwall win tonight and they'll go above us.

[beasty77]

Prob because law of averages state will are guaranteed to drop points at home soon. Millwall were also the 1st team win at VP last Season. And then the usual moaners will be out in force

 

Problem we got at the moment is we cant afford drop any points at home especially with our dreadful away record.

[sheffield61]

The league's so tight that with two more home wins this week we could then be at the top of it come Saturday night!......😆

[TJHValiant]

Our record against Millwall is truly dreadful and we never have ever come close to beating them down the last few years

[inner sanctum]

In the last 3 home games against them we have won 2 and lost 1. Not that bad.

[cheshirevaliant]

If we finish above Millwall, we will have had a very good season. I think that will have something to do with it. They were the best team I saw last year (home and away) by a long stretch.

[davidatpreston]

Previous records against a club shouldn't matter except in perhaps local derbies, and that line of thought conflicts with the 'law of averages' too - I don't believe either.

 

It is true that Millwall were the first club to win at VP last year, and also that it was on a Tuesday night, but a good number of our players won't even know that, let alone remember it !

 

Yes, they are underachieving, but in some ways Id rather be playing a pretty good side like the Lions than one right at the bottom - after all, look where Scunny are and our best home game was against them and we also had a magnificent 2nd half destroying a decent Gillingham side, but only just beat Rochdale and Southend.

 

I think it may be a draw tonight, the key to the result could be not conceding early and getting the crowd to react like they did against Gillingham and really make Vale Park a fortress. Millwall will certainly be looking to tighten up at the back after shipping goals too easily so if I have a small wager Im going on laying Millwall for the value (ie Vale win or draw) and also for a low total of goals (maybe under 2.5).

 

Come on Vale - prove those odds are wrong and keep firml;y in that top six !

[smithie]

Anyone remember us beating them with two really late goals back in the 90s? I seem to recall Mark Burke getting the winner.

[valeboy]

Leicester last season despite being top of the league most of the year were underdogs according to the bookies until March so the odds are based on not much more than reputation

 

Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk

[Fosse69]

If the odds are so good, why is the money not pouring on to shorten them?

[valefanintean]

Odds are calculated from team ratings, to start the season we were relegation favs while Millwall were promotion favs. While the respective starts will have no doubt moved the needle on team ratings to close the gap they will in no way have been enough to flip the spectrum and make us favs. If Vale should've been fav's then there would've been enough cash to move the prices however there has been little action which would suggest that the market is deemed correct (We are slightly shorter in Asia so if the market moves before kick off it will likely be that way).

 

If anything take the value while we're still underrated...