The Fink Tank

[Jacko51]

Daniel Finkelstein writes regular articles in The Times in which he uses all sorts of stats to analyse football. His article yesterday was about the promotion battles in all three divisions of the Football League and the percentage chance of various teams going up.

 

The article is here:

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/sport/football/finktank/article3738177.ece

 

But it is probably behind a paywall so it's also here!

 

**********

 

In with a shot of a happy ending

 

Right, promotions. What does the Fink Tank have to say about the chances of various teams going up?

 

Dr Henry Stott, Dr Mark Latham and Gabriella Lebrecht keep our Predictor model up to date, integrating two years worth of shots on target and goals, weighting the data and running simulations.

 

Before we start, a quick update on the race for Champions League qualification. Chelsea’s chance is 77 per cent, Arsenal are up to 76 per cent and Tottenham Hotspur have slipped back to 43 per cent. Everton have a 4 per cent chance.

 

Now, promotion from the npower Championship. Cardiff City are, essentially, up. Round up their percentage chance of automatic promotion and, although there is (note) a tiny chance of failure, the figure is 100 per cent.

 

Hull City, who are second in the table at present, have an 80 per cent chance of going up, and a 73 per cent chance that they will do so automatically. For Watford, who are third going into this weekend’s games, it is 45 per cent total, 26 per cent automatic. Crystal Palace, in fourth, have a 21 per cent overall shot, but only a 1 per cent chance of automatic.

 

The other teams in the hunt are just looking for a promotion through the play-offs. This gives Brighton & Hove Albion a 17 per cent chance, Nottingham Forest a 16 per cent chance and Leicester City had a 14 per cent chance before last night’s game. Bolton Wanderers have a 7 per cent chance.

 

From League One? Well, no one has wrapped it up yet. Doncaster Rovers (78 per cent) and Bournemouth (74 per cent) are the favourites. Brentford have a 44 per cent chance of going up (28 per cent automatic), Sheffield United 43 per cent (22 per cent automatic), Swindon Town 33 per cent (3 per cent) with the other teams being Yeovil Town (19 per cent), Milton Keynes Dons (4 per cent), Walsall (2 per cent) and Tranmere Rovers (1 per cent).

 

The first two promotion places from League Two are all but settled. Gillingham are up and Port Vale’s figure, rounded up, is 100 per cent, so they, too, are going to the next rung, subject to the same caveat I made about Cardiff in the Championship.

 

Rotherham United have a 56 per cent chance of going up (28 per cent automatic), Northampton Town have a 53 per cent chance and the other candidates are Burton Albion (41 per cent), Cheltenham Town (25 per cent) and Bradford City (19 per cent).

 

There are small chances, too, for Exeter City (2 per cent), Chesterfield (also 2 per cent) and Southend United (1 per cent).

[Sch0tt]

Does this guy know, it's Port Vale he's labelling with a 100% chance of going up tag?

 

Only joking, shows what a good season we've all had, and hopefully promotion is just a formality now.

[CAVALIER]

Interesting. I was pleased the Toon lost today Jacko.

[Jacko51]

Interesting. I was pleased the Toon lost today Jacko.

 

It was only to be expected, the French have a history of failing to put up much resistance to the forces of fascism.

[davidatpreston]

Daniel Finkelstein writes regular articles in The Times in which he uses all sorts of stats to analyse football. His article yesterday was about the promotion battles in all three divisions of the Football League and the percentage chance of various teams going up.

 

The article is here:

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/sport/football/finktank/article3738177.ece

 

But it is probably behind a paywall so it's also here!

 

**********

 

In with a shot of a happy ending

 

Right, promotions. What does the Fink Tank have to say about the chances of various teams going up?

 

Dr Henry Stott, Dr Mark Latham and Gabriella Lebrecht keep our Predictor model up to date, integrating two years worth of shots on target and goals, weighting the data and running simulations.

 

Before we start, a quick update on the race for Champions League qualification. Chelsea’s chance is 77 per cent, Arsenal are up to 76 per cent and Tottenham Hotspur have slipped back to 43 per cent. Everton have a 4 per cent chance.

 

Now, promotion from the npower Championship. Cardiff City are, essentially, up. Round up their percentage chance of automatic promotion and, although there is (note) a tiny chance of failure, the figure is 100 per cent.

 

Hull City, who are second in the table at present, have an 80 per cent chance of going up, and a 73 per cent chance that they will do so automatically. For Watford, who are third going into this weekend’s games, it is 45 per cent total, 26 per cent automatic. Crystal Palace, in fourth, have a 21 per cent overall shot, but only a 1 per cent chance of automatic.

 

The other teams in the hunt are just looking for a promotion through the play-offs. This gives Brighton & Hove Albion a 17 per cent chance, Nottingham Forest a 16 per cent chance and Leicester City had a 14 per cent chance before last night’s game. Bolton Wanderers have a 7 per cent chance.

 

From League One? Well, no one has wrapped it up yet. Doncaster Rovers (78 per cent) and Bournemouth (74 per cent) are the favourites. Brentford have a 44 per cent chance of going up (28 per cent automatic), Sheffield United 43 per cent (22 per cent automatic), Swindon Town 33 per cent (3 per cent) with the other teams being Yeovil Town (19 per cent), Milton Keynes Dons (4 per cent), Walsall (2 per cent) and Tranmere Rovers (1 per cent).

 

The first two promotion places from League Two are all but settled. Gillingham are up and Port Vale’s figure, rounded up, is 100 per cent, so they, too, are going to the next rung, subject to the same caveat I made about Cardiff in the Championship.

 

Rotherham United have a 56 per cent chance of going up (28 per cent automatic), Northampton Town have a 53 per cent chance and the other candidates are Burton Albion (41 per cent), Cheltenham Town (25 per cent) and Bradford City (19 per cent).

 

There are small chances, too, for Exeter City (2 per cent), Chesterfield (also 2 per cent) and Southend United (1 per cent).

 

 

 

A 100 per cent chance ? I bet he hasn't looked at the fact that Vale are playing one of their main rivals. Yes, Northampton are out of form and had a shocking result thankfuilly v York, but all it needs is for a rugged performance and the could sneak a win. After all, other than Cheltenham and Burton plus early season against Rotherham, Vale have been a bit dodgy at home against half-decent sides. Exeter, Morecambe, Southend, Fleetwood, Chestefield and Bradford (JPT) all won at Vale Park and are all below Northampton in the table.

It hurts me to say it, but there is a chance Northampton could win, and it is a 1 in 3.5 chance according to the odds at the bookies.

If that does happen, we still have the cushion of other teams needing to win their games. But Rotherham may well come out on top in a fierce Yorkshire derby at Bradford, who hold the key to our season if we mess up in our own matches.

I suspect (as some Bradford fans do on their forums) exhaustion may set in for the Bantams, and they could drop points to both Rotherham and Burton and maybe even Cheltenham.

All of which would leave us with a nervous last day at Wycombe. Normally, Id say Vale would certainly be good for a point here. Only 4 defeats in 22 away games and playing a team with nothing at stake sounds good.

But an injury, a bad ref who gives a silly penalty, a rush of blood meaning a red card - too many things could go wrong that mean even a good performance may mean an undeserved defeat. I pray we dont have to go to Wycombe needing to win, or even draw - it would be so much better to settle things at home to Northampton.

If by that last day we had lost to Northampton, Gillingham would be champions already and may ease up and give Burton the opportunity to beat them.

 

All conjecture - but to say we are 100 per cent certain or even 99 per cent is damn stupid.

 

I wonder what percentage he would have given Wimbledon in their FA Cup Final against Liverpool ?

Or Liverpool themselves when they were 3-0 down at HT against Milan in theat European final ?

Or QPR when they were 4-0 down at Vale in the mid-90s at half-time ?

 

The man isn't a football fan, or he would know better - only last season Manchester United would have been 100 per centers when they had an 8-point or so lead over City.

 

It is very very likely we will go up - that doesn't yet mean it is certain. Tuesday will give a big indication when, even though we dont play, we can breath a massive sigh of relief if Rotherham and Northamton lose or even draw. Even Rotherham just drawing will mean we only need one more point instead of three.

Should both the Millers and the Cobblers win then although we will still be favourites, the room for error drops a fair bit.

By the way, apologies if any of the above has been posted by any 'expert' 4 days ago or something like that, as I dont have time to read every post on every thread.

No complacency - finish the job in style Vale !

[Jacko51]

By the way, apologies if any of the above has been posted by any 'expert' 4 days ago or something like that, as I dont have time to read every post on every thread.

 

You're a bloomin' touch bugger, David. Chill out man.

[Mr Football]

A 100 per cent chance ? I bet he hasn't looked at the fact that Vale are playing one of their main

 

All conjecture - but to say we are 100 per cent certain or even 99 per cent is damn stupid.

 

What he does is actually take emotion out of it all and go on stats and only st ate. He's a political commentator mainly and it's lays a good read. What he says is that our likelihood of going up is 100% rounded up. Yes, there's always a risk we won't, but from a neutral unemotional statistical perspective this is what the stats say. He is a really interesting read every week

 

However, as we all know, football is not always bang in line with the stats, which is why we follow it. But neutrals, and disinterested statistics, cannot see anything other than us going up. Not that we as fans will take that for granted or expect anything other than a vale **** up!

[andy jones]

what's the odds at the bookies of us not going up automatic - they are usually accurate more often than not.

[rayzer]

Will the bookies pay me out tomorrow then?

[davidatpreston]

what's the odds at the bookies of us not going up automatic - they are usually accurate more often than not.

 

Betfair offer 1/50 against Vale going up. Doesnt sound much, but some people put thousands on there, and if anyone was very, very certain and had £10,000 to risk like Mr Fiskywhisk or whatever its name is probably has, then there would be £200 profit there for the taking.

 

Bookmakers don't just give money away, they would close the betting if they were as certain as this writer.My own bets are limited to a couple of pounds unfortunately, although it is quite good fun having a few footie bets,

I get the feeling we are supposed to be impressed because he writes for the Times but as someone else said, he is mainly a political commentator so may not understand fully the momentum, emotion and cracked nerves involved in promotion and relegation battles.

[Jacko51]

I get the feeling we are supposed to be impressed because he writes for the Times but as someone else said, he is mainly a political commentator so may not understand fully the momentum, emotion and cracked nerves involved in promotion and relegation battles.

 

His writing for The Times is irrelevant - I just thought it was an interesting article and mentioned the Vale in a good light. He is indeed a political commentator but he writes stuff like this every week in the sports pages in a section called The Fink Tank. Some of it is very interesting but clearly you didn't think this was. Never mind.

[davidatpreston]

His writing for The Times is irrelevant - I just thought it was an interesting article and mentioned the Vale in a good light. He is indeed a political commentator but he writes stuff like this every week in the sports pages in a section called The Fink Tank. Some of it is very interesting but clearly you didn't think this was. Never mind.

 

Of course it was interesting - if I didnt find it so, I wouldnt have written a lengthy post on it. But, fascinating as it was to see an outside view, it is far from accurate.

The true chances of things happening are much better shown by market forces (bookmakers) and what I put about Betfair has changed even more now, their odds against Vale getting promoted are 1/20 right now.

Yes they can and often are wrong too, but are much nearer the true picture.

Mr F's chances for Rotherham are also wildly different from the bookmakers view as well - I wonder how he calculates things like current form, new signings, morale in the club, levels of support, remaining opponents and their form, previous experience of similar situations, managerial experience, fitness levels etc etc. If he has taken even 2 of these into account, rather than just going on league position and results so far this season I would be surprised.

In short, yes it was interesting and as such Im glad I read it, but I disagree with it in very large parts. I am allowed to do that as far as I know.

[gavcradd]

I can't believe Tranmere have dropped away so much in League One - they were flying at the top of the table not so long ago, what went wrong?

[vale on toower]

Of course it was interesting - if I didnt find it so, I wouldnt have written a lengthy post on it. But, fascinating as it was to see an outside view, it is far from accurate.

The true chances of things happening are much better shown by market forces (bookmakers) and what I put about Betfair has changed even more now, their odds against Vale getting promoted are 1/20 right now.

Yes they can and often are wrong too, but are much nearer the true picture.

Mr F's chances for Rotherham are also wildly different from the bookmakers view as well - I wonder how he calculates things like current form, new signings, morale in the club, levels of support, remaining opponents and their form, previous experience of similar situations, managerial experience, fitness levels etc etc. If he has taken even 2 of these into account, rather than just going on league position and results so far this season I would be surprised.

In short, yes it was interesting and as such Im glad I read it, but I disagree with it in very large parts. I am allowed to do that as far as I know.

Are you aloud in a pub during Happy Hour????????????

[cheeky]

Personally, I think an assessment from a neutral observer who assess without the emotion/pre-conceptions there to get in the way, is likely to be more accurate than an assessment by a specialised football reporter/journalist etc who will employ these in their decision making.