The Fink Tank

[davidatpreston]

Which is exactly the part I disagree with.

 

there is no way in hell that if you take this table with these fixtures remaining, and play them 1000 times, that we will end up promoted at least 995 times.

 

 

If anything my point is that this is not bare maths at all, this is some historical bull **** that is meaningless.

 

How can you say its got a 99% chance of happening when it clearly, clearly is less than 99%.

 

It is like me saying if you flip a coin there is a 75% chance it lands heads up - it simply is not true.

 

Of course you are absolutely correct, but it is useless to put rational argument to some people. Remember that enjoying arguing on here is a way of life for some.

 

To prove your point, Betfair were 1/20 Vale promotion yesterday which is a 5 per cent chance, and bookies just wouldnt get it that wrong.

Naturally, the odds are massively in favour of Vale but 100 per cent - no.

[Jacko51]

Of course you are absolutely correct, but it is useless to put rational argument to some people. Remember that enjoying arguing on here is a way of life for some.

 

To prove your point, Betfair were 1/20 Vale promotion yesterday which is a 5 per cent chance, and bookies just wouldnt get it that wrong.

Naturally, the odds are massively in favour of Vale but 100 per cent - no.

 

With respect, David, the article does say the percentage is rounded up to 100. And this is not me arguing, I'm simply mentioning it.

[davidatpreston]

With respect, David, the article does say the percentage is rounded up to 100. And this is not me arguing, I'm simply mentioning it.

 

But you ARE arguing - nit picking in fact because it could only be rounded up from 99 per cent.

So my 5 per cent (ie 95 per cent chance of Vale going up) is quite different from 99, and I find it difficult to believe you didn't know what I meant. Thanks for post 6 by the way, which no doubt brought out the highly relevant posts 14 and 17 (friends of yours ?)

 

I'll leave RB to argue with you - at least he/she can that the article, whilst very interesting, is irrational and flawed.

[Trentham Lakes Valiant]

But you ARE arguing - nit picking in fact because it could only be rounded up from 99 per cent.

So my 5 per cent (ie 95 per cent chance of Vale going up) is quite different from 99, and I find it difficult to believe you didn't know what I meant. Thanks for post 6 by the way, which no doubt brought out the highly relevant posts 14 and 17 (friends of yours ?)

 

I'll leave RB to argue with you - at least he/she can that the article, whilst very interesting, is irrational and flawed.

 

Nit Picking. You are the King of Nit picking.

 

Do I win a coaster?

[Mr Football]

Of course you are absolutely correct, but it is useless to put rational argument to some people. Remember that enjoying arguing on here is a way of life for some.

 

To prove your point, Betfair were 1/20 Vale promotion yesterday which is a 5 per cent chance, and bookies just wouldnt get it that wrong.

Naturally, the odds are massively in favour of Vale but 100 per cent - no.

 

1/200 with paddy power right now

[cheeky]

I believe we are up. £100 with whoever doubts the article that we'll go up? Any takers?

[davidatpreston]

I believe we are up. £100 with whoever doubts the article that we'll go up? Any takers?

 

I believe we WILL go up. All I was trying to say is that it isnt 99 per cent or 100 per cent certain.

 

All due respect, but if you are saying will someone have an even money bet with you that we wont go up, I dont think you'll find any takers as they could go to Betfair and 'lay' Vale for promotion current odds 1.08 which means they would only lose £12.50 but win £100 if Vale fail to get promoted.

 

That will change depending on tuesdays results, but at the moment shows that someone on/at Betfair thinks there is at least an 8 per cent chance of what we fear most.

 

Let's hope it all gets put to bed with a Vale win on saturday that ends any argument.

[davidatpreston]

1/200 with paddy power right now

 

Which is exactly why I wouldnt go near Paddy Power with a bargepole. As I just replied in my previous post, Betfair (who ALWAYS have better odds than anyone else) will let you lay Vale at 1.08 indicating a 1 in 12 chance (in their opinion, which admittedly is only as valuable as anyone elses) of no promotion.

[cheeky]

I'm just 100% convinced we'll go up, like the author of the article. If you think differently, take the bet.

[davidatpreston]

I'm just 100% convinced we'll go up, like the author of the article. If you think differently, take the bet.

 

With all due respect, why on earth would I risk £100 when Ive just shown you that I can get the same bet by risking £12 at Betfair and get £100 from them if Vale aren't promoted ? But I also said I think we will go up too. Just not 100 per cent sure, over 90 per cent yes. And I will be devastated if we dont make it to L1.

 

Tell you what, make it £10 as I havent got £100 to save my life, and I will have a bet with you that will give you the chance to show your confidence in the author of the article.

 

The bet is this - he has said who has the best chance of automatic and playoff promotion from each division.

He chooses Cardiff and Hull in Championship with Watford to go up as well. In L1 he says Doncaster, Bourmth and Brentford have the highest chance, and in L2 Gillingham (given), vale and Rotherham.

 

If he gets all these correct I will give you £10, but if any one of those is wrong you give me £10.

 

In any event, I hope you enjoy a Vale win on Saturday.

[cheeky]

With all due respect, why on earth would I risk £100 when Ive just shown you that I can get the same bet by risking £12 at Betfair and get £100 from them if Vale aren't promoted ? But I also said I think we will go up too. Just not 100 per cent sure, over 90 per cent yes. And I will be devastated if we dont make it to L1.

 

Tell you what, make it £10 as I havent got £100 to save my life, and I will have a bet with you that will give you the chance to show your confidence in the author of the article.

 

The bet is this - he has said who has the best chance of automatic and playoff promotion from each division.

He chooses Cardiff and Hull in Championship with Watford to go up as well. In L1 he says Doncaster, Bourmth and Brentford have the highest chance, and in L2 Gillingham (given), vale and Rotherham.

 

If he gets all these correct I will give you £10, but if any one of those is wrong you give me £10.

 

In any event, I hope you enjoy a Vale win on Saturday.

 

Yeah go on then. Ill take that on. I may even have crafty Accy with the bookies for the same thing.

[Jacko51]

But you ARE arguing - nit picking in fact because it could only be rounded up from 99 per cent.

So my 5 per cent (ie 95 per cent chance of Vale going up) is quite different from 99, and I find it difficult to believe you didn't know what I meant. Thanks for post 6 by the way, which no doubt brought out the highly relevant posts 14 and 17 (friends of yours ?)

 

I'll leave RB to argue with you - at least he/she can that the article, whilst very interesting, is irrational and flawed.

 

David, I really don't know why I have suddenly become persona non grata with you but I would appreciate it if you would put me on your ignore list. It seems the only rational thing to do because whatever I say produces a negative response from you. I'd rather save you the angst.

[davidatpreston]

In reply to Cheekys post -

 

Ok agreed.

 

If I win I will donate the £10 to my local animal rescue. Like all animal charities they need more help as far more animals are being abandoned in hard times.

[cheeky]

If I win, I'll use it to get leathered in Boslem after the match.

[Regal Beagle]

If I win, I'll use it to get leathered in Boslem after the match.

 

Good, the last place you want to go is the bookies again given your even money offer a few posts ago.

 

I think we'll go up, but it certainly isn't 100% or 99% certain. I don't understand what is so hard to grasp about that.