Cheltenham Festival Tipping Chat Thread

[Guppy 4 England]

Will make it easier for Rob to calculate points if we post general comments and discussion in here rather than the tips thread

 

Looking forward to it, going to the gold cup for the first time for a lads jolly, conna wait!

[Smallthorne Dog]

just going through tomorrows runners and riders now.

 

Strongly fancy Champagne Fever in the supreme. Grounds gone against Overturn so Simonsig should be a shoe in in the Arkle, with Arvika Ligionaire possibly staying on to take second if Overturn makes the running. The JLT is wide open but would fancy Merry King, Our Mick and Fruity O'Rooney are well handicapped. Nadiya De La Vega will run well but can't see it winning.

Rock On Ruby and Zarkander are my picks to beat huuricaine Fly who i think is massively overated. Arabella Boy, Outlaw Pete and Uncle Junior would appear to have the Cross Country between them.

[Guppy 4 England]

Fruity looks a good bet but i like pete the feat who loves soft ground and given the weather i think by the time they race it should be very soft so i can see him staying on and at 25/1 great odds, i like sizing australia in the cross country and hes at decent odds for an e.w first four at bet365!

 

I think Quevega and Simonsig are certs, even the double on those only pays 2/1!!

 

Should be a good start to the festival, but i disagree with Fly mate, i think he will win followed by Grandouet, i dont think the ground will suit Rock on Ruby and as much as i like zarkandar, jacob has let me down too often to consider backing him. Think i will do Grandouet e/w and may back zarkandar at paddy power, that way if fly wins i will get my money back!!

[Smallthorne Dog]

This is what i love about the festival, that everybody sees different angles on things.

 

Pete The Feat is a nice horse, but i think he has risen too much in the weights for me for win purposes. Sizing Australia looks like a good ground horse to me and as such i think the soft surface won't suit him. Uncle Junior is the value at 8's.

 

I just think Hurricaine fly has spent a career in Ireland beating up the same horses time and time again. We know he is better than Thousand Stars, Captain Cee Bee and Solwhit, but i can't get out of my head the fact that he is 9 now, and couldn't pick up of a strong pace last year. I can see Zarkander being outpaced early on and off the bridle at the top of the hill before staying on like a train. His in running price will be interesting. Grandouet would have been my pick too, but he has reportedly had training issues, and Henderson hasn't been able to get a prep race into him. I've done the paddy power thing, as its a bet to nothing really. Also backed Simonsig with Ladbrokes as they go money back if he loses!

[Smallthorne Dog]

Quevega should pee it in the mares race but i don't really fancy taking 8/15 on a horse that hasn't been seen for a year. Its a short price when her well being has to be taken on Trust. I'll probably look at Bet365's finish in the first 3 market. Une Artiste and Alasi (10/11 and 5/1 respectively )appeal in that market.

[Smallthorne Dog]

The Handicap's are once again an absolute nightmare that could be pretty much won by anything. The 5.15 is so competative! The entire field is rated within 8lbs of one another, all the trainers are hiding their horses true form in order to get the best handicap mark. How is a punter supposed to fathom that out. I'd give a chance to up to 9 of the 20 runners!!

 

McCoy has chosen Colour Squadron which should mean he is better than Vulcanite, although the fact that Colour Squadron can't jump doesn't fill me with confidence but JP McManus likes to win festival handicaps so if the money comes for it that would be interesting.

 

Carlito Brigante has a way lower chase mark than he does over hurdles and he is lower than when he won the Coral Cup a couple of years back, Gordon elliot likes to land a gamble at the festival too. The same could be said of Hazy Tom who was a highly touted novice hurdler last season and is a lot lower over fences.

 

Shangani and The Druid's Nephew are both progressive types who have crept in under the radar but could have any amount in hand of the handicapper, as is Kruzhlinin and Donald McCain expects him to run a big race at a big price.

 

Ohio Gold is another who could surprise at a nice price having finished second 3 times this season to good horses. But it wouldn't surprise me if anything popped up. it really is a pinstickers job.

[Guppy 4 England]

Agree with the 5.15 mate, i sat there for hours thinking the same thing, opted for Bobowen on form on the softer ground and thats about it!

 

I think one of the certs will lose out of the four paddy power have on offer tomorrow, 24/1 for My tent or yours, quevega, simonsig and fly. Personally i think it could be fly, but as you say quevega hasnt been seen for a long time, but all else in the race looks rubbish in comparison

[Guppy 4 England]

Its interesting to note though that une artiste is unbeaten around cheltenham.....

[Smallthorne Dog]

I think My Tent and The Fly will get turned over Mark. If i was going for a short priced acca it would be Quevega, Simonsig, Sprinter Sacre but even that is a massive risk to ask 3 horse all to come in at best combined odds of around 5/2!!

[Smallthorne Dog]

Its interesting to note though that une artiste is unbeaten around cheltenham.....

 

In hindsight i cant believe she went off at 40/1 for the Fred Winter last year, having finished 4th in the Adonis!!

[Guppy 4 England]

I must say the more I read the more I'm swaying to une artiste

[Dr Winston O'Boogle]

This is what i love about the festival, that everybody sees different angles on things.

 

Pete The Feat is a nice horse, but i think he has risen too much in the weights for me for win purposes. Sizing Australia looks like a good ground horse to me and as such i think the soft surface won't suit him. Uncle Junior is the value at 8's.

 

I just think Hurricaine fly has spent a career in Ireland beating up the same horses time and time again. We know he is better than Thousand Stars, Captain Cee Bee and Solwhit, but i can't get out of my head the fact that he is 9 now, and couldn't pick up of a strong pace last year. I can see Zarkander being outpaced early on and off the bridle at the top of the hill before staying on like a train. His in running price will be interesting. Grandouet would have been my pick too, but he has reportedly had training issues, and Henderson hasn't been able to get a prep race into him. I've done the paddy power thing, as its a bet to nothing really. Also backed Simonsig with Ladbrokes as they go money back if he loses!

 

That is it, he couldn't keep up the pace on good ground with an out and out front runner Overturn leading them a merry dance - this time where does the pace come from on soft ground?

 

1. Hurricane Fly

2. Zarkander

[For Us All]

1.30 race put back to 2.05 to allow the coarse to thaw out.

[For Us All]

Very disappointed on how this thread fizzled out.Why start a thread then let it die,pathetic.

[Guppy 4 England]

I forgot thursday predictions and thought no point with Friday