England have been here before. The squad looks strong, the draw is kind, and the expectation at home is running high. It’s a familiar set-up – and for much of the last 60 years, so has been the ending.
But there’s a reasonable case that 2026 is different. Thomas Tuchel’s side sit third in the World Cup winner betting market, behind Spain and France. That position isn’t sentiment. It reflects two consecutive European Championship finals and a squad with depth across almost every position.
The group
England are in Group L with Croatia, Ghana and Panama. Croatia are the most experienced side in the group, having reached the World Cup final in 2018 and the semi-finals in 2022, but Ghana and Panama shouldn’t cause serious problems for a squad of England’s calibre. Tuchel has a group draw that allows England to build momentum before the competition truly starts.
There’s also a footnote. It was Croatia who knocked England out in the 2018 semi-finals. They’ll get the chance to settle that early.
The path from here
The 2026 World Cup introduces a round of 32 before the last 16. Topping Group L leads to a softer first knockout tie, which makes finishing first worth prioritising. A clean, commanding group stage would set the tone for everything that follows.
The reasons to believe
England reached the European Championship final in 2021 and again in 2024. That back-to-back run in major finals hadn’t been done before, and the experience of those high-pressure matches will count here. England’s last four exits from major tournaments all came by a single goal or on penalties. The margins have been fine. Whether this squad handles those moments differently is what the tournament will settle.
The honest assessment
England’s best World Cup performance since 1966 was a semi-final in 2018. They haven’t won the tournament since, and for all the progress of the last few years, winning six or seven consecutive matches against the world’s best remains a step beyond what they’ve previously shown at a World Cup.
The draw has given them every opportunity. The next three weeks will show whether the squad can take it.
England are among the most followed nations when people bet on football, and results over the next three weeks will quickly determine whether that attention is deserved. Group L starts now.
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