How Many Points Do Port Vale Keep to Aim For to Secure Safety in League One?
Here is a closer look at roughly how many points League One side Port Vale would need to survive the drop and remain in the league for next season.
As we enter the second half of the 2023/24 League One campaign, many football supporters are starting to wonder how many points their team needs to survive the drop and avoid being relegated down a league.
In League One, the third tier of men’s professional football in England, a total of four teams are relegated each year.
Based on the number of points teams have typically needed to avoid relegation, we have calculated roughly how many points Port Vale for example would need to earn to ensure League One football for the 2024/25 campaign. Let’s dive straight in to discover exactly what that golden number is.
How many points do Port Vale need to ensure League One football next season?
If you go all the way back to the 1995/96 season and then look at the average number of points each team has needed by the end of the season to avoid the drop since then, we find that the golden number is 47.9.
In other words, based on previous end-of-season points tallies, Port Vale should be safe if they can end up with 48 points or higher. The lowest number of points the final relegated team once had at the end of the season occurred in the 2019/20 season.
Tranmere Rovers went down after having secured only 31 points. However, on several occasions, the final relegation clubs (the teams that ALMOST survived the drop) went down after finishing the season with 51 points.
For example, in the 2000/01 season, Bristol Rovers went down with 51 points. It also happened to Torquay United at the end of the 2004/05 season. A handful of clubs have also been relegated with 50 points.
The golden number, based on averages, is 47.9, but to be safe, 48 points should be enough to keep Pot Vale up.
Are Port Vale likely to be relegated?
If you look at the latest odds at 32 red sport, it shows that Port Vale only have a 6.70% implied probability rate of being relegated, which is good news for fans. If you convert the IPR (implied probability rate) into fractional odds, it’s the same as saying 14/1.
For those of you who prefer viewing the odds in the American/moneyline odds format, 14/1 is equal to +1,400, and in the decimal odds format, 14/1 is 15.00.
In other words, it’s a fairly safe bet that Port Vale will avoid being relegated, but no bets are ever guaranteed, especially in football, where anything can happen.
In comparison, Port Vale’s odds of being promoted are, on average, around 300/1 (so only a 0.30% IPR), meaning 30,000 (in the American/moneyline odds format) or 301.00 (decimal odds).
Where are Pot Vale in the league right now?
At the time of writing, Port Vale are currently in 15th place out of 24 places with 29 points. They are six places and six points above the relegation zone, which features the following teams:
- Exeter City in 21st place with 23 points
- Carlisle in 22nd place with 20 points
- Cheltenham in 23rd place with 20 points
- Fleetwood (rock bottom of League One) in 24th place with only 18 points
Upcoming fixtures
On Saturday, January 6th, Port Vale are at home to Charlton, and then on Saturday 13th, they travel away to play Reading. On January 20th, they are at home to Wycombe, and then on January 27th, they are at home to Portsmouth.
They also go on to play Fleetwood away on February 3rd, Stevenage at home on February 10th, Peterborough away on February 13th, and Cheltenham away on February 17th. Other upcoming fixtures include Lincoln City (February 24th), Fleetwood (February 27th), and Derby County (March 2nd).