Fans starting to worry, but the bookmakers say Vale will be fine

Supporting Port Vale has never been an easy task, and the 2022/23 season seems to be a prime example of what it feels like to be a Vale fan.

After a reasonable start to the season, Vale have fallen away in recent weeks, and now fans are looking over their shoulders, rather than dreaming about a day out at Wembley in the play-offs.

This actually happened, didn't it? #pvfc pic.twitter.com/eXTkwDfZz1

— Unofficial Vale (@unofficial_vale) May 29, 2022

FA Cup loss seems to have been the turning point

This season feels like Groundhog Day again. Valiant fans got excited after a decent run of results saw the club sitting in 10th place prior to the 1st Round FA Cup tie against Exeter. Optimism was high, and there was talk of who Vale might draw, should the boys make it to the 3rd Round.

But bang, back to earth with a bump. The game with Exeter went the way it did, and off the back of that disappointing 3-2 defeat, it’s like the season has just gradually drifted away, to the point where the dreaded ‘R’ word is now being whispered by Vale fans.

But do Valiant fans need to be worried about the dreaded drop? Yes, dreams of making it back to the Championship are long gone, but are Vale really in danger of going down?

It’s human nature to worry, and football fans seem to do it better than anyone. Particularly fans of lower-league clubs. But to put a different perspective on things, maybe Vale fans need to look at the bookmakers’ odds.

What do the bookies think?

Football fans generally base their views on emotion, and Vale fans are no different. Bookmakers base their views or predictions on cold hard facts – statistics, for example. Yes, the bookmakers don’t see Gavin Massey causing fans to tear their hair out, but that is a prime example of taking the emotion out of the equation and looking at the facts.

At the moment, Port Vale are 19/1 to go down, and 375/1 to be promoted. But it’s still a long shot that Vale will be relegated. Betting sites have Forest Green at 1/50 to go down, Cambridge at 4/11, Morecambe also at 4/11, and Accrington at 8/11, predicting they are far more likely to drop out of the league.

Betting sites believe a host of other sides like MK Dons, Burton, and Cheltenham – to name a few – have a better chance than Vale of being relegated. That said, they’re not always right. There’s a reason that professional tipsters dedicate themselves to analysing the data closely. While it might be obvious to many when a team’s season is in terminal decline, it’s the details that determine which of a bad bunch is most likely to be the worst. Those tipsters have proven track records of turning a profit off the back of their expert knowledge, so if you want to know if Vale will continue on their current trajectory and become that team, their channels may be the ones to follow.

No need to panic, yet!

It’s not all doom and gloom. It may feel like it, but there are still plenty of fixtures left for Darrell Clarke and the team to turn things around this season.

FULL TIME

It's a late Christmas present of 3️⃣ points for the Valiants thanks to Gavin Massey's first half strike. #PVFC pic.twitter.com/vx693RrQVY

— Port Vale FC (@OfficialPVFC) December 26, 2022

Vale do have quality in their ranks, and a strong finish to the season could be the springboard to better things in 2023/24. Meaning Vale fans can start looking upwards, rather than over their shoulders.