Who will win the Ballon d’Or 2025? Updated favorites, chances, and contender rankings

The battle for the most prestigious individual football trophy is heating up. After the Portugal national team, led by Cristiano Ronaldo, defeated Spain in the Nations League final, the power balance among Ballon d’Or contenders has shifted. Following the favorite Ousmane Dembélé’s defeat, attention turned to the young Lamin Yamal, who is only 17. But now other Portuguese players have entered the race: Vitinha and Nuno Mendes have risen in the rankings.

The 2025 Ballon d’Or ceremony will be the 69th edition. Since 1956, the award has been given by the French magazine *France Football*, recognizing players’ contributions to the game, their personal achievements, team success, and conduct on and off the field.

Last year, the prize went to Rodri from Manchester City. Lionel Messi holds the record with eight awards. Cristiano Ronaldo has won five times and remains the leader in nominations with 18. The youngest winner remains Brazilian Ronaldo, who took the award at age 21.

If Yamal wins, he will break that record: he was born on July 13, 2007, and could become the youngest winner in history. It’s no surprise his performances at UEFA Euro 2024 are being watched very closely.

When is the Ballon d’Or ceremony?

The ceremony will take place on Monday, September 22, 2025, at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris. The nominees’ names will be announced in early August.

Besides the main men’s and women’s awards, other prizes will be handed out: the Kopa Trophy (best young players), the Yashin Trophy (best goalkeepers), the Gerd Müller Trophy (top scorers), the Johan Cruyff Trophy (best coaches), and the Sócrates prize – for contributions to social and charitable initiatives.

Who’s the favorite?

As of June 10, according to Polymarket, the odds were distributed as follows:

• Ousmane Dembélé (PSG) – 68%;
• Lamin Yamal (Barcelona) – 17%;
• Vitinha (PSG) – 3.7%;
• Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) – 2.65%.

Yamal’s strong position is reinforced not only by his age but also by his importance to the national team. Still, Portugal’s advance to the final has significantly boosted players like Nuno Mendes and Vitinha. Interestingly, in this context, popular platforms among players, such as MelBet apk, where you can follow odds and match results, are being discussed. Users can place pre-match and live bets, follow real-time odds updates, and explore extensive betting markets, such as predicting match winners, total goals, corners, or yellow cards in football, or even combining bets for higher odds.  Additionally, MelBet ensures secure transactions, fast withdrawals, and 24/7 customer support via live chat, email, or phone, making it a reliable choice for bettors.

Top 20 contenders by power ranking:

• Ousmane Dembélé – PSG;
• Lamin Yamal – Barcelona;
• Raphinha – Barcelona;
• Mohamed Salah – Liverpool;
• Kylian Mbappé – Real Madrid;
• Vitinha – PSG;
• Nuno Mendes – PSG;
• Desire Doue – PSG;
• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – PSG;
• Achraf Hakimi – PSG;
• Pedri – Barcelona;
• Harry Kane – Bayern;
• Robert Lewandowski – Barcelona;
• Gianluigi Donnarumma – PSG;
• João Neves – PSG;
• Vítor Júnior – Sporting;
• Vinícius Júnior – Real Madrid;
• Jude Bellingham – Real Madrid;
• Bradley Barcola – PSG;
• Declan Rice – Arsenal.

What about the “Super Ballon d’Or”?

This rare award – the “Super Ballon d’Or” – has only been given once to Alfredo Di Stéfano in 1989. But if it were reintroduced, the main candidates would be Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo because of the number of their titles and their impact on the game. Here’s how the possible contenders rank now:

• Lionel Messi (Argentina) – Barcelona, PSG, Inter Miami.
• Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) – Manchester United, Real Madrid, Juventus.
• Zinedine Zidane (France) – Bordeaux, Juventus, Real Madrid.
• Ronaldo Nazário (Brazil) – Barcelona, Inter, Real Madrid.
• Ronaldinho (Brazil) – PSG, Barcelona, Milan.
• Paolo Maldini (Italy) – Milan.
• Andrés Iniesta (Spain) – Barcelona, Vissel Kobe, Emirates Club.
• Gianluigi Buffon (Italy) – Parma, Juventus, PSG.
• Luka Modrić (Croatia) – Dinamo Zagreb, Tottenham, Real Madrid.
• Xavi (Spain) – Barcelona, Al Sadd.

Ballon d’Or winners from 2000 to 2024

• 2024 – Rodri;
• 2023 – Lionel Messi;
• 2022 – Karim Benzema;
• 2021 – Lionel Messi;
• 2019 – Lionel Messi;
• 2018 – Luka Modrić;
• 2017 – Cristiano Ronaldo;
• 2016 – Cristiano Ronaldo;
• 2015 – Lionel Messi;
• 2014 – Cristiano Ronaldo;
• 2013 – Cristiano Ronaldo;
• 2012 – Lionel Messi;
• 2011 – Lionel Messi;
• 2010 – Lionel Messi;
• 2009 – Lionel Messi;
• 2008 – Cristiano Ronaldo;
• 2007 – Kaká;
• 2006 – Fabio Cannavaro;
• 2005 – Ronaldinho;
• 2004 – Andriy Shevchenko;
• 2003 – Pavel Nedvěd;
• 2002 – Ronaldo;
• 2001 – Michael Owen;
• 2000 – Luís Figo.