With just a quarter of the 2024/25 League Two season left to navigate and the campaign’s climax in sight, Port Vale are handily placed on the shoulders of the front runners in the promotion race.
Port Vale’s mission to secure promotion back to League One after a one-year hiatus was knocked slightly off course by successive draws against Tranmere and Harrogate. However, with games in hand to contest, the Valiants can still plot a course towards a top-three finish.
Vale are currently listed as sixth favourites on football betting sites in the automatic promotion markets behind Walsall, Bradford, Doncaster, Notts County and Wimbledon. However, there are reasons to be optimistic about the club’s chances of beating those odds.
Winnable fixtures to come at Vale Park
Port Vale have seven League Two fixtures left to contest at Vale Park between now and May 3rd, though only three of their remaining visitors are positioned in 8th place or higher in the table.
A trio of back-to-back home matches commences on March 15th with the visit of MK Dons (18th place), before Morecambe (23rd place) and Barrow (17th place) make pilgrimages to Staffordshire before the end of the month.
Port Vale pocketed six points from the three reverse fixtures against those opponents earlier in the campaign, though a maximum nine-point haul looks like a reasonable target ahead of the forthcoming trio of return games.
April’s line-up is a little stiffer, with fellow promotion contenders Bradford the first visitors on the 1st. However, dates with Bromley (9th place) and Grimsby (8th place) hold more promise, while there is potential to sign off in style on May 3rd when Gillingham (19th place) land at Vale Park for the last game of the season.
Reverse fixtures against the seven teams listed above for Port Vale yielded just ten points out of a possible 21 earlier in the season, but with home advantage there to be harnessed, Darren Moore’s troops will be targeting a bigger haul.
Port Vale need to drag their numbers up
To achieve the results they need at Vale Park to secure promotion, Port Vale will need to improve their numbers in several areas.
The Valiants have been picking up an average of 1.85 points per home game since August, which is well short of the division’s best performers, Bradford (2.50 points per home game) and places Port Vale 7th in League Two overall for the metric.
In addition, Vale managed to score only 21 times in their first 16 home games in League Two and their 1.31 goals per game average at home is only the division’s 17th best output.
Indeed, 50% of the league’s current bottom 12 clubs have scored more home goals than Port Vale this season, while the Valiants rank a dismal 18th for both shots (11.80) and shots on target (3.80) per home game.
Defensively, the data makes for better reading from a Vale perspective and only four clubs in League Two have conceded fewer goals from open play at home, while an impressive 42% of visiting clubs’ shots at Vale Park have come from outside the penalty area.
Indeed, the 173 shots Port Vale have faced at Vale Park this season have generated just 18.29 in expected goals, which suggests their disciplined defensive unit can keep most visitors to Staffordshire at arm’s length.
It could be a case then, that robust defending at Vale Park will provide the platform for goal-shy Port Vale’s final assault for automatic promotion, which would be in keeping with the overall pattern of the campaign so far.
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