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Promotion Maths after Rochdale


red_rose_valiant

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if rotherham dont win we need a point if they do win we need 3 points. you cant go into a game trying to get a point so adams will have them fired up by next saturday im sure of it to get a superb win at home

 

You can't play for a point but it is a good fall back position to have.

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We hold our destiny in our own hands but failing that Bradford may give us a helping hand. They play Rotherham and Burton at home and Cheltenham away. They'll want to consolidate their position in the play offs so they won't be taking their foot off the pedal.

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Simple version:

 

If Rotherham win on Tuesday at Bradford we need a win against Northampton to confirm promotion

 

If Rotherham don't win on Tuesday a point will see us up against Northampton

 

that's not quite true. rotherham could beat bradford on tuesday and we could still only need 1 point for promotion on saturday...

 

IF rotherham OR burton fail to win their match on saturday while we're playing northampton then a point would see us up.

 

(admittedly it would be under the assumption that nobody could match our goal difference, but people are already making that assumption by saying we only need a point if rotherham don't win on tuesday)

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Touch wood we go into it needing a point. If Northampton fail to win Tuesday and Rotherham lose then them two are out of the picture as far as we are concerned. That would also mean if either Burton lose to Bradford or Cheltenham fail to win their away game at Exeter we could be up with a loss which would take some pressure off!

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We are on 76. Maximum points our rivals can get looks like:

 

Burton 79

Cheltenham 77

Rotherham 79

Northampton 77

Bradford 74

 

So, because of our superior GD, we need to get 3 points to stop Burton and Rotherham catching us, and 1 to stop Chelts and Northampton. It will all be clearer though on Tuesday when Rotherham and Northampton play their game in hand.

 

Think this is right!

Looks mathematically correct to me!

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