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Match Thread: Port Vale v Newport County


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Can I just say well done to Steve Speed for ensuring no games (so far) this season have been called off for pitch related issues. Great effort

How times and opinions change,.Last season we only needed a decent left back to complete a decent back four.This season,injuries and a loss of form from all the back four has wrecked the season.Time t

You're right about Legge. Yes, his form dipped in the last few games he played but he is still head and shoulders above the rest - and that's literally part of out problem with Smith and Crookes lack

1 hour ago, CambridgeDon said:

Because that's what the data suggest. After I'd posted, I found this on the FiveThirtyEight website, listing the very five clubs I'd suggested as relegation candidates as the bottom five in their predicted final table for 20-21 season:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-two/

And it includes us.

Colchester may indeed be in the mix but that does nothing to allay what should be our reasonable concerns about the possibility we may be relegated. 

What is it out of the last 12 games? Two wins and four draws, which puts us in the two relegation places. Yes, 23rd, a sobering thought and relegation form if ever I saw it, as the form table over that period tells us.

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-two/form/matches:12/type:home-and-away/

So, my point remains valid: if we carry on with this form, we will be relegated. And it's a simple conclusion: we have to start winning, starting with Orient on Saturday or we will truly be in free fall, despite the dire position of the other clubs around us.

It's all to play for. 

 

How does 2 wins and 4 draws put us in the relegation places? It clearly hasn't; and, if that's all we got from the next 12 games, it would still give us 6 games to get 6 points to take us to 50?

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3 hours ago, valefan79 said:

When we beat Southend a few weeks ago we were 12 clear of them, that stands at 8, if they sneak another victory, and it was 5, I think a lot of people will be getting anxious, I already am.  Southend just taken 4 points from 2 really tough away games, we don't look like getting a result when coming up against better teams, hammered in the last month against Tranmere, Mansfield and well beaten by Walsall.  

You say once we have our first choice full-backs we will be ok, how often has Monty broken down since he has been here, Gibbo in the last 12 months seems to have picked up quite a few knocks, we can't rely on that happening.

They’re not doing badly since Popey said they were the worst team he’d ever seen. No doubt they‘ve pinned that article up in their dressing room

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They’re not doing badly since Popey said they were the worst team he’d ever seen. No doubt they‘ve pinned that article up in their dressing room
Well there's plenty of posts on both here and the "wonder" of port vale site quite derogatory regards our lot but non seem to have had a similar effect.
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3 hours ago, CambridgeDon said:

Because that's what the data suggest. After I'd posted, I found this on the FiveThirtyEight website, listing the very five clubs I'd suggested as relegation candidates as the bottom five in their predicted final table for 20-21 season:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-two/

And it includes us.

Colchester may indeed be in the mix but that does nothing to allay what should be our reasonable concerns about the possibility we may be relegated. 

What is it out of the last 12 games? Two wins and four draws, which puts us in the two relegation places. Yes, 23rd, a sobering thought and relegation form if ever I saw it, as the form table over that period tells us.

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-two/form/matches:12/type:home-and-away/

So, my point remains valid: if we carry on with this form, we will be relegated. And it's a simple conclusion: we have to start winning, starting with Orient on Saturday or we will truly be in free fall, despite the dire position of the other clubs around us.

It's all to play for. 

 

The fivethirtyeight link seems to be saying that there is a 4% chance of our being relegated Vs 63% for Southend and 85% for Grimsby.  As has been stated elsewhere we are not completely out of the woods but I'd rather be in our position than theirs at this point in time.

 

Also last time I checked the season isn't played over 12 games.

 

Your conclusion might be simple but I'm honestly not sure that it is correct.

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They’re not doing badly since Popey said they were the worst team he’d ever seen. No doubt they‘ve pinned that article up in their dressing room

Maybe Southend were not as bad as we thought and we actually put in a very good performance, does Gibbons improve us that much? Maybe.

In fairness Southend had 2 points or something after we’d beaten them on Halloween so had picked up 21 since so overall form had improved.
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The fivethirtyeight link seems to be saying that there is a 4% chance of our being relegated Vs 63% for Southend and 85% for Grimsby.  As has been stated elsewhere we are not completely out of the woods but I'd rather be in our position than theirs at this point in time.
 
Also last time I checked the season isn't played over 12 games.
 
Your conclusion might be simple but I'm honestly not sure that it is correct.

I agree

4% chance according to those ‘stats’ of Vale being relegated compared to much higher chance for the four clubs below. Not saying we are out of the woods but it would take a pretty big swing round

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27 minutes ago, osprey said:


I agree

4% chance according to those ‘stats’ of Vale being relegated compared to much higher chance for the four clubs below. Not saying we are out of the woods but it would take a pretty big swing round

Odds of 20/1 would be a fair bet. You can get 30/1 of Man United winning the title. It's a case of "yeah it could happen, but it won't".

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11 hours ago, Quebec_Valiant said:

The fivethirtyeight link seems to be saying that there is a 4% chance of our being relegated Vs 63% for Southend and 85% for Grimsby.  As has been stated elsewhere we are not completely out of the woods but I'd rather be in our position than theirs at this point in time.

 

Also last time I checked the season isn't played over 12 games.

 

Your conclusion might be simple but I'm honestly not sure that it is correct.

If anything is simple, it's your statement that the season isn't played over 12 games when the whole point of the form table is not to define form over the season but to provide an indication of, er, form at specific point in the season. So what this is telling us is that our current form would put us in the relegation places and if we keep playing as we are, we are going to be in serious trouble.

The worrying thing about that form table is it encapsulates all the games since our last convincing win over Bradford when we put six past them and, over those games, the only teams we've beaten are Southend and Grimsby. Furthermore, if, from that table, you extrapolate the PPG over our remaining 16 games, we would end up with 47 points, probably enough to escape relegation but much too close for comfort in my liking.  

And if anything is going to contribute to our demise it will be complacency.

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14 hours ago, LancyTony said:

How does 2 wins and 4 draws put us in the relegation places? It clearly hasn't; and, if that's all we got from the next 12 games, it would still give us 6 games to get 6 points to take us to 50?

Have another look at the form table, which shows one thing: that our current form over the last 12 places puts us in 23rd place. If you then extrapolate from that (i.e. if we don't improve) our points total would be 47, probably enough to escape relegation unless of course, we decline even further and/or others improve more than we do. All speculation, I know, but it's clear if we carry on as were are, we're going to be involved in a rather nasty relegation battle. 

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-two/form/matches:12/type:home-and-away/

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23 minutes ago, CambridgeDon said:

If anything is simple, it's your statement that the season isn't played over 12 games when the whole point of the form table is not to define form over the season but to provide an indication of, er, form at specific point in the season. So what this is telling us is that our current form would put us in the relegation places and if we keep playing as we are, we are going to be in serious trouble.

The worrying thing about that form table is it encapsulates all the games since our last convincing win over Bradford when we put six past them and, over those games, the only teams we've beaten are Southend and Grimsby. Furthermore, if, from that table, you extrapolate the PPG over our remaining 16 games, we would end up with 47 points, probably enough to escape relegation but much too close for comfort in my liking.  

And if anything is going to contribute to our demise it will be complacency.

Yes, it is a simple statement, however, my simple statements have the benefit of being correct.

The wins over Grimsby and Southend were both convincing, and, it was Bolton that we put 6 past.

 

Edited by Quebec_Valiant

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12 points from the last 18 games so if we dont improve we will finish on 44 points. Southend have 22 points from 18 games so they would finish on 44 points so we would stay up on goal difference. Now we all know this isn't going to happen as form of teams will change but you've have to admit it's scary stuff

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16 minutes ago, dishydave said:

12 points from the last 18 games so if we dont improve we will finish on 44 points. Southend have 22 points from 18 games so they would finish on 44 points so we would stay up on goal difference. Now we all know this isn't going to happen as form of teams will change but you've have to admit it's scary stuff

More scary if our new management  don`t improve  performance and results.  

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12 minutes ago, Fosse69 said:

More scary if our new management  don`t improve  performance and results.  

Well the new man certainly won’t be able make them better players so the hope is he gets them organised and gets to pick his best 11 for the remaining games. Then his real work starts at the end of season when he needs to add 6 quality first eleven players to make a real difference. 

Edited by sandyford_valiant
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3 minutes ago, sandyford_valiant said:

Well the new man certainly won’t be able make them better players so the hope is he gets them organised and gets to pick his best 11 for the remaining games. Then his real work starts at the end of season when he needs to add 6 quality first eleven players to make a real difference. 

A bit of confidence makes a lot of difference, keeping spirits up when conceding a goal makes them better performing players. 

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40 minutes ago, dishydave said:

12 points from the last 18 games so if we dont improve we will finish on 44 points. Southend have 22 points from 18 games so they would finish on 44 points so we would stay up on goal difference. Now we all know this isn't going to happen as form of teams will change but you've have to admit it's scary stuff

I don't disagree, I'm not saying that we are safe.  I'm just saying that I'd rather be in our position than the position of most of the clubs below us.

Some people have been posting what the table would look like if the teams below us win all of their games in hand.  Awful reading but it seems unlikely given recent, and longer term, form of those teams.

Key job for the new man will be to find a way to stop us being so vulnerable to the long ball that has proved our undoing so frequently of late.

If we can cut that out then I think that it will be a big help in improving results.

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1 hour ago, CambridgeDon said:

Have another look at the form table, which shows one thing: that our current form over the last 12 places puts us in 23rd place. If you then extrapolate from that (i.e. if we don't improve) our points total would be 47, probably enough to escape relegation unless of course, we decline even further and/or others improve more than we do. All speculation, I know, but it's clear if we carry on as were are, we're going to be involved in a rather nasty relegation battle. 

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-two/form/matches:12/type:home-and-away/

I am looking at the form table and what it shows me is that only 8 teams have gained 9 points more than us over the 12 game period.

That means that the bottom 3 would need to hit playoff form to close the gap over the next 12 games, assuming that our form remains the same.

Again, not saying that we are safe but it is not panic stations at this point.

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I think I’ll just watch the games as they come, rather than focusing on if’s, but’s and maybe’s.  
 

I’ve played that game in the past and given myself sleepless nights, looking at the run ins and convincing myself everyone else will play like Man City (unlikely) whilst we continue to play like The Dog and Duck (more likely).

Confident we will limp over the line, but a massive overhaul required.  
 

We need a strong spine of players approaching their prime, not crossing our fingers that a bunch of mid 30’s can have one last hurrah!

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