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Match Thread: Port Vale v Newport County


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Yes but they had loads blocked and really took the game to Cambridge.
They're now out of the bottom two for the first time this season.
It's going to be a battle at the bottom!
I think it's between 2 of 5 teams and we're 1 of them unfortunately

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Can I just say well done to Steve Speed for ensuring no games (so far) this season have been called off for pitch related issues. Great effort

How times and opinions change,.Last season we only needed a decent left back to complete a decent back four.This season,injuries and a loss of form from all the back four has wrecked the season.Time t

You're right about Legge. Yes, his form dipped in the last few games he played but he is still head and shoulders above the rest - and that's literally part of out problem with Smith and Crookes lack

3 minutes ago, dishydave said:
18 minutes ago, CambridgeDon said:
Yes but they had loads blocked and really took the game to Cambridge.
They're now out of the bottom two for the first time this season.
It's going to be a battle at the bottom!

I think it's between 2 of 5 teams and we're 1 of them unfortunately

Maybe, but for me there is a big gap between the bottom 3 and the rest.  Those 3 have to be big favourites for the drop.  At the risk of stating the obvious, I think that we will know a lot more by the end of Feb.

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6 minutes ago, dishydave said:
22 minutes ago, CambridgeDon said:
Yes but they had loads blocked and really took the game to Cambridge.
They're now out of the bottom two for the first time this season.
It's going to be a battle at the bottom

I think it's between 2 of 5 teams and we're 1 of them unfortunately

Yes, unless Colchester, Scunthorpe and Bradford (all of whom have two or three games in hand) go on a losing streak, it's between us, Stevenage, Southend, Barrow and Grimsby. 

We are now in 17th and the next team below us who've played 28 games is Stevenage, three points behind.

Port Vale P28 Pts 32 GD -3

Stevenage P28 Pts 29 GD -8

Southend P28 Pts 24 GD -26

Barrow P25 Pts 23 GD -5

Grimsby P27 21 GD-26

Two weeks ago, Southend were looking dead and buried, now they must think they have a real chance.

Time for us to wake up and start winning or the unthinkable will happen.

 

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4 minutes ago, CambridgeDon said:

Yes, unless Colchester, Scunthorpe and Bradford (all of whom have two or three games in hand) go on a losing streak, it's between us, Stevenage, Southend, Barrow and Grimsby. 

We are now in 17th and the next team below us who've played 28 games is Stevenage, three points behind.

Port Vale P28 Pts 32 GD -3

Stevenage P28 Pts 29 GD -8

Southend P28 Pts 24 GD -26

Barrow P25 Pts 23 GD -5

Grimsby P27 21 GD-26

Two weeks ago, Southend were looking dead and buried, now they must think they have a real chance.

Time for us to wake up and start winning or the unthinkable will happen.

 

I think all Southend's "revival" does is put pressure on the teams immediately around them. All the bottom teams have too many games against their nearest rivals (and against teams battling for promotion) to pick up sufficient points for them all to overtake us, and leave us in the mire? Also, Grimsby's and Southend's GD are like an extra point they need to get. Not being complacent - but when was the last time all 4 of the bottom clubs climbed out of the relegation places?  

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1 minute ago, LancyTony said:

I think all Southend's "revival" does is put pressure on the teams immediately around them. All the bottom teams have too many games against their nearest rivals (and against teams battling for promotion) to pick up sufficient points for them all to overtake us, and leave us in the mire? Also, Grimsby's and Southend's GD are like an extra point they need to get. Not being complacent - but when was the last time all 4 of the bottom clubs climbed out of the relegation places?  

Hope you're right but unless we start to win we'll get dragged into a desperate fight. The only teams we've beaten recently are Southend and Grimsby so we really need to up our game.

The other factor that struck me today was the position in the National League where some teams have a huge back log of games. Dover, for example, have only played 15 games, leaving them to play 29 games in 11 weeks; and Notts County, one of the leaders, have only played 18, with 26 games to play before 8 May when their regular season is due to end. 

So the question is, will they even finish their season and, if they don't, will clubs accept PPG as a fair way of settling promotion for the second season running when there are such disparities in the number of games played? 

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2 minutes ago, CambridgeDon said:

Hope you're right but unless we start to win we'll get dragged into a desperate fight. The only teams we've beaten recently are Southend and Grimsby so we really need to up our game.

The other factor that struck me today was the position in the National League where some teams have a huge back log of games. Dover, for example, have only played 15 games, leaving them to play 29 games in 11 weeks; and Notts County, one of the leaders, have only played 18, with 26 games to play before 8 May when their regular season is due to end. 

So the question is, will they even finish their season and, if they don't, will clubs accept PPG as a fair way of settling promotion for the second season running when there are such disparities in the number of games played? 

National League season finishes May 29th this year due to the late start, a big ask to get all the games in still but think they will get to a point where they might use points per game if they get to 30+ games played for everyone.

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27 minutes ago, LancyTony said:

I think all Southend's "revival" does is put pressure on the teams immediately around them. All the bottom teams have too many games against their nearest rivals (and against teams battling for promotion) to pick up sufficient points for them all to overtake us, and leave us in the mire? Also, Grimsby's and Southend's GD are like an extra point they need to get. Not being complacent - but when was the last time all 4 of the bottom clubs climbed out of the relegation places?  

"Revival", is probably right.  Their last 5 games is lost 3, won 1, drawn 1.  This is exactly the same record as us, although they have gained a point over the last 2 games.

Barrow have gained the same amount of points in the last 5 and Grimsby have gained 1 point, for 1 draw.  Overall I don't see why people would think that the gap is closing considerably.

With our 1st choice fullbacks in place I think that we will pick up enough points to finish comfortably.  Feel free to remind me of this in May if it does go horribly wrong.

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6 minutes ago, Quebec_Valiant said:

"Revival", is probably right.  Their last 5 games is lost 3, won 1, drawn 1.  This is exactly the same record as us, although they have gained a point over the last 2 games.

Barrow have gained the same amount of points in the last 5 and Grimsby have gained 1 point.  Overall I don't see why people would think that the gap is closing considerably.

With our 1st choice fullbacks in place I think that we will pick up enough points to finish comfortably.  Feel free to remind me of this in May if it does go horribly wrong.

When we beat Southend a few weeks ago we were 12 clear of them, that stands at 8, if they sneak another victory, and it was 5, I think a lot of people will be getting anxious, I already am.  Southend just taken 4 points from 2 really tough away games, we don't look like getting a result when coming up against better teams, hammered in the last month against Tranmere, Mansfield and well beaten by Walsall.  

You say once we have our first choice full-backs we will be ok, how often has Monty broken down since he has been here, Gibbo in the last 12 months seems to have picked up quite a few knocks, we can't rely on that happening.

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40 minutes ago, CambridgeDon said:

Yes, unless Colchester, Scunthorpe and Bradford (all of whom have two or three games in hand) go on a losing streak, it's between us, Stevenage, Southend, Barrow and Grimsby. 

We are now in 17th and the next team below us who've played 28 games is Stevenage, three points behind.

Port Vale P28 Pts 32 GD -3

Stevenage P28 Pts 29 GD -8

Southend P28 Pts 24 GD -26

Barrow P25 Pts 23 GD -5

Grimsby P27 21 GD-26

Two weeks ago, Southend were looking dead and buried, now they must think they have a real chance.

Time for us to wake up and start winning or the unthinkable will happen.

 

Scunthorpe and Bradford seem to be on decent runs, but Colchester have not won for a while.  Current form would suggest that they would pick up a point from their 2 games in hand.  Not sure why you would consider us, but not them as relegation candidates.  Games in hand tend not to be worth so much at the bottom end of the table.

 

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7 minutes ago, valefan79 said:

When we beat Southend a few weeks ago we were 12 clear of them, that stands at 8, if they sneak another victory, and it was 5, I think a lot of people will be getting anxious, I already am.  Southend just taken 4 points from 2 really tough away games, we don't look like getting a result when coming up against better teams, hammered in the last month against Tranmere, Mansfield and well beaten by Walsall.  

You say once we have our first choice full-backs we will be ok, how often has Monty broken down since he has been here, Gibbo in the last 12 months seems to have picked up quite a few knocks, we can't rely on that happening.

We've played one game since we played Southend, which was the loss to Tranmere.  They've played 2 games from which they have taken 4 points.  Even if they sneak another victory that will really only help their position Vs Grimsby and Barrow.

Personally I don't see 2 of those 3 clubs going on the sort of run required to close an 8 point gap.

I think that we will pick up enough points from the teams at the bottom end of the table to steer clear of real danger.

Did you see anything from Grimsby or Southend in their games against us which suggested anything other than relegation?  Do you think that there performances against us were a fluke?

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The points in the bag that Vale have are crucial as well as the goal difference advantage over Sarfend and Grimsby. I'd much prefer to be in our position than that of the current bottom 3 although the table isn't looking as comfortable as I'd like.

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6 minutes ago, Quebec_Valiant said:

We've played one game since we played Southend, which was the loss to Tranmere.  They've played 2 games from which they have taken 4 points.  Even if they sneak another victory that will really only help their position Vs Grimsby and Barrow.

Personally I don't see 2 of those 3 clubs going on the sort of run required to close an 8 point gap.

I think that we will pick up enough points from the teams at the bottom end of the table to steer clear of real danger.

Did you see anything from Grimsby or Southend in their games against us which suggested anything other than relegation?  Do you think that there performances against us were a fluke?

I thought both were absoutely dreadful and I thought we will be ok but until we get a few more wins, I will not feel safe at all.  Equally I have seen us turn in many a bad performance where I wonder where our wins are going to come from and remember Barrow have 3 games in hand, win just one of them and that gap be down to 6 points.  

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11 minutes ago, valefan79 said:

I thought both were absoutely dreadful and I thought we will be ok but until we get a few more wins, I will not feel safe at all.  Equally I have seen us turn in many a bad performance where I wonder where our wins are going to come from and remember Barrow have 3 games in hand, win just one of them and that gap be down to 6 points.  

Yep, Barrows run rate would suggest that they could well pick up 3 points from those 3 games.

Not sure why but I'm choosing to have faith at this point.  I guess that, on balance, I think that our players/team are capable of better than they have shown so far this season.

That said I will be strapping the plastic sheeting on to the bed this evening (just in case) where it shall remain until we are mathematically secure.  

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31 minutes ago, valefan79 said:

I thought both were absoutely dreadful and I thought we will be ok but until we get a few more wins, I will not feel safe at all.  Equally I have seen us turn in many a bad performance where I wonder where our wins are going to come from and remember Barrow have 3 games in hand, win just one of them and that gap be down to 6 points.  

6 points behind is no good to them, though! They would need to win the 3 in hand to go above us on GD (probably). Whereas, over the last 5 games they have an identical record to us - W1 D1 L3 - which is the same as Southend's who had lost 3 straight before their "revival". Colchester have D3 L2 in their last 5, so we've taken 1 more point than them over the last 5 games. Grimsby are awful - D1 L4 of their last 5, and I see no sign of this improving. So I think it's fair to say that we only need 1 of the other 6 below us to stay there.

Not pretty...and not an ideal situation to be in...but I really can't see 6 of 7 teams suddenly improving so much to put us down...especially if we get any kind of "new manager bounce" - with or without an actual new manager, but with DFs influence? Keep the faith! UTV!!! 

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8 minutes ago, LancyTony said:

6 points behind is no good to them, though! They would need to win the 3 in hand to go above us on GD (probably). Whereas, over the last 5 games they have an identical record to us - W1 D1 L3 - which is the same as Southend's who had lost 3 straight before their "revival". Colchester have D3 L2 in their last 5, so we've taken 1 more point than them over the last 5 games. Grimsby are awful - D1 L4 of their last 5, and I see no sign of this improving. So I think it's fair to say that we only need 1 of the other 6 below us to stay there.

Not pretty...and not an ideal situation to be in...but I really can't see 6 of 7 teams suddenly improving so much to put us down...especially if we get any kind of "new manager bounce" - with or without an actual new manager, but with DFs influence? Keep the faith! UTV!!! 

I hope your right but it's not 6 teams that need to improve, if 2 of the bottom 3 start to improve then we are massively involved in trouble, as things stand we are 3 points clear of 20th.  I always think towards the end of the season teams get results when you never expect them to, I remember Macclesfield under Campbell well adrift and then getting outof safety.  Look at the championship last year, Barnsley and Luton were down and out with 6 games to go and both stayed up. 

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1 hour ago, Quebec_Valiant said:

Scunthorpe and Bradford seem to be on decent runs, but Colchester have not won for a while.  Current form would suggest that they would pick up a point from their 2 games in hand.  Not sure why you would consider us, but not them as relegation candidates.  Games in hand tend not to be worth so much at the bottom end of the table.

 

Because that's what the data suggest. After I'd posted, I found this on the FiveThirtyEight website, listing the very five clubs I'd suggested as relegation candidates as the bottom five in their predicted final table for 20-21 season:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-two/

And it includes us.

Colchester may indeed be in the mix but that does nothing to allay what should be our reasonable concerns about the possibility we may be relegated. 

What is it out of the last 12 games? Two wins and four draws, which puts us in the two relegation places. Yes, 23rd, a sobering thought and relegation form if ever I saw it, as the form table over that period tells us.

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-two/form/matches:12/type:home-and-away/

So, my point remains valid: if we carry on with this form, we will be relegated. And it's a simple conclusion: we have to start winning, starting with Orient on Saturday or we will truly be in free fall, despite the dire position of the other clubs around us.

It's all to play for. 

 

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