Match Thread: Port Vale v Newport County

[Quebec_Valiant]

40 minutes ago, dishydave said:

12 points from the last 18 games so if we dont improve we will finish on 44 points. Southend have 22 points from 18 games so they would finish on 44 points so we would stay up on goal difference. Now we all know this isn't going to happen as form of teams will change but you've have to admit it's scary stuff

I don't disagree, I'm not saying that we are safe.  I'm just saying that I'd rather be in our position than the position of most of the clubs below us.

Some people have been posting what the table would look like if the teams below us win all of their games in hand.  Awful reading but it seems unlikely given recent, and longer term, form of those teams.

Key job for the new man will be to find a way to stop us being so vulnerable to the long ball that has proved our undoing so frequently of late.

If we can cut that out then I think that it will be a big help in improving results.

[Quebec_Valiant]

1 hour ago, CambridgeDon said:

Have another look at the form table, which shows one thing: that our current form over the last 12 places puts us in 23rd place. If you then extrapolate from that (i.e. if we don't improve) our points total would be 47, probably enough to escape relegation unless of course, we decline even further and/or others improve more than we do. All speculation, I know, but it's clear if we carry on as were are, we're going to be involved in a rather nasty relegation battle. 

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-two/form/matches:12/type:home-and-away/

I am looking at the form table and what it shows me is that only 8 teams have gained 9 points more than us over the 12 game period.

That means that the bottom 3 would need to hit playoff form to close the gap over the next 12 games, assuming that our form remains the same.

Again, not saying that we are safe but it is not panic stations at this point.

[Bald Eagle]

I think I’ll just watch the games as they come, rather than focusing on if’s, but’s and maybe’s.  
 

I’ve played that game in the past and given myself sleepless nights, looking at the run ins and convincing myself everyone else will play like Man City (unlikely) whilst we continue to play like The Dog and Duck (more likely).

Confident we will limp over the line, but a massive overhaul required.  
 

We need a strong spine of players approaching their prime, not crossing our fingers that a bunch of mid 30’s can have one last hurrah!

[Quebec_Valiant]

20 minutes ago, Bald Eagle said:

I think I’ll just watch the games as they come, rather than focusing on if’s, but’s and maybe’s.  
 

I’ve played that game in the past and given myself sleepless nights, looking at the run ins and convincing myself everyone else will play like Man City (unlikely) whilst we continue to play like The Dog and Duck (more likely).

Confident we will limp over the line, but a massive overhaul required.  
 

We need a strong spine of players approaching their prime, not crossing our fingers that a bunch of mid 30’s can have one last hurrah!

That's probably a very sensible approach BE.

[LancyTony]

5 hours ago, CambridgeDon said:

Have another look at the form table, which shows one thing: that our current form over the last 12 places puts us in 23rd place. If you then extrapolate from that (i.e. if we don't improve) our points total would be 47, probably enough to escape relegation unless of course, we decline even further and/or others improve more than we do. All speculation, I know, but it's clear if we carry on as were are, we're going to be involved in a rather nasty relegation battle. 

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:league-two/form/matches:12/type:home-and-away/

Or not.

The worst thing you can do, in football predictions, is to extrapolate current form. If current form were an exact science you would never get Vale 2 - Spurs 1, or any of the hundreds of giantkilling scores over the last 40 years! Or several of our results this season, both positive and negative. Too many imponderables...too many things we know we don't know!

[LancyTony]

3 hours ago, Quebec_Valiant said:

That's probably a very sensible approach BE.

It's the best approach!

[CambridgeDon]

23 hours ago, LancyTony said:

Or not.

The worst thing you can do, in football predictions, is to extrapolate current form. If current form were an exact science you would never get Vale 2 - Spurs 1, or any of the hundreds of giantkilling scores over the last 40 years! Or several of our results this season, both positive and negative. Too many imponderables...too many things we know we don't know!

No, the worst thing you can do is to ignore current form and treat it as telling you nothing. It may not be exact and football is unpredictable but disregarding the form you are in on the basis that the future is imponderable is asking for trouble. But the most unexpected is the club turning up with a new terrific manager in the shape of Darrell Clarke - so I think we can now regard the relegation debate as academic!

[CambridgeDon]

On 14/02/2021 at 13:38, Quebec_Valiant said:

I am looking at the form table and what it shows me is that only 8 teams have gained 9 points more than us over the 12 game period.

That means that the bottom 3 would need to hit playoff form to close the gap over the next 12 games, assuming that our form remains the same.

Again, not saying that we are safe but it is not panic stations at this point.

Nothing you've said negates the conclusion I came to and I've never said we were at panic stations. Fortunately the debate about relegation is rendered largely irrelevant now that we've appointed Clarke, an excellent piece of business by our owners (again).

[LancyTony]

1 hour ago, CambridgeDon said:

No, the worst thing you can do is to ignore current form and treat it as telling you nothing. It may not be exact and football is unpredictable but disregarding the form you are in on the basis that the future is imponderable is asking for trouble. But the most unexpected is the club turning up with a new terrific manager in the shape of Darrell Clarke - so I think we can now regard the relegation debate as academic!

Which I had already done, based on too many clubs would need to pick up too many points - it isn't only our current form that needs to be taken into account. 

As you say, though - all academic, now - hopefully! This should be a good appointment, and with the DoF in place, the renewal of good times for the Vale? Also - have you seen the criteria for applying for Academy Head Coach? That will be some appointment if the appointee matches the requirements! All good...or, at least getting better! UTV  

[The Kalamazoo Kid]

Dunno if its already been mentioned, but I notice that the Newport game has been re-arranged for Tuesday 16th March (7pm).

Lots of Saturday / Tuesday games coming up for the next month.

[rsb]

But do the currant players want to play for the vale, because they are not doing it a the moment 

[Quebec_Valiant]

2 hours ago, CambridgeDon said:

Nothing you've said negates the conclusion I came to and I've never said we were at panic stations. Fortunately the debate about relegation is rendered largely irrelevant now that we've appointed Clarke, an excellent piece of business by our owners (again).

Hey, all I'm saying is that the conclusions that you were coming to were not really supported by the data that you provided, to back up your points.

Still, I see your taking this opportunity to back down so I'll let it go.

 

[Heatwave]

The rearranged date gives us three home games on the bounce - Oldham, Bolton and now Newport. Could do with at least six points from those.

[Conrad]

1 hour ago, The Kalamazoo Kid said:

Dunno if its already been mentioned, but I notice that the Newport game has been re-arranged for Tuesday 16th March (7pm).

Lots of Saturday / Tuesday games coming up for the next month.

Cunning plan, leave the covers off the pitch for a night, get the Newport game postponed till the new manager is announced.

Now that’s forward planning.😃

[Quebec_Valiant]

1 minute ago, Conrad said:

Cunning plan, leave the covers off the pitch for a night, get the Newport game postponed till the new manager is announced.

Now that’s forward planning.😃

Hopefully it gives us the opportunities to get a few more bodies back too.