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Match Thread: Newport County v Port Vale


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Do you not think that I want Vale to get promotion? Who said I was writing off the season? Keep Askey - we may get promotion. Sack Askey - we may get promotion. No one has a crystal ball. Bringing in a new manager has risks. It’s about managing the risks. 

I think sometimes people do not have a realistic view of things. When considering the best way to run a team you need a measured (no emotion attached) approach. 

Sacking a manager does give instant success or success at all.

So Vital Spark, what would you do?

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The usual over reaction on here We had plenty of chances today and yes we struggle to put them away but for me it was an improvement on Tuesdays game and an attacking set up from Askey when we could

Facts We have lost three league games on the bounce each by a single goal despite playing a considerable time with ten men in two of the games. We still sit just outside the play offs in 9th. So

THIS ISN'T AN ASKEY OUT POST BUT I AM GOING TO BE CRITICAL.  Sick and tired of this football club. The evidence is fairly irrefutable that John Askey's Port Vale concede in the last minute a

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52 minutes ago, For Us All said:

One things for certain,it just shows how much we need Joycey in the team?

It does but again also that we didn’t address it close season. We didn’t sign Someone to replace Pope. We didn’t sign someone to deputise for Joyce. We didn’t sign a box to box energetic midfielder to replace Taylor. I will say again that I’m not for askey out but some very serious questions need to be asked of him at the minute. Can he change it around enough...that’s anyone’s guess but unless we find a bit of steel from somewhere then I’m not hopeful at the minute 

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How many signings have added something significant to the first 11? You could genuinely argue zero.

Askey banked on his old squad (oldest last year, oldest this year) churning out another season, in a condensed format. It was a big gamble.

I've always called for slow building but this appears to be stagnation.

Edited by Joe B

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5 minutes ago, dantheman said:

It does but again also that we didn’t address it close season. We didn’t sign Someone to replace Pope. We didn’t sign someone to deputise for Joyce. We didn’t sign a box to box energetic midfielder to replace Taylor. I will say again that I’m not for askey out but some very serious questions need to be asked of him at the minute. Can he change it around enough...that’s anyone’s guess but unless we find a bit of steel from somewhere then I’m not hopeful at the minute 

The Taylor issue is hardly Askey's fault.  Forest messed about for ages apparently with, I am told, a number of clubs after him.  The story is they would only let him go to a club who would pay all his wages. This is hearsay but from a decent source. Bear in mind he signed a new much improved contract during last season and his wages were considerably higher than we had paid when he came at the beginning of last season.  All of the clubs baulked at paying that but Scunny decided to do so - they have a very large wage bill with some players having their wages capped for for EFL rules at £68,000 despite being paid considerably more than that.  Sproson commented on the Scunny commentary about how big Van Veen's salary was.  Taylor has since played six games for them and they've lost them all.  I very much doubt Taylor is happy there.

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2 hours ago, Joe B said:

"Football isn't played on a spreadsheet" "If it's 3.4 why did they also score 1?" "You can't score 0.4 of a goal"

Thought I'd get that out of the way before the original, intellectual jokers arrived.

To make it clear 'expected goals' is just a way of measuring how good a chance is. Think of it as 'how good a chance was on a scale of 1-10, and then added up'. It just measures if you created good chances or not.

xG from yesterday. Not pretty. 

1748021885_Screenshot2020-11-22at08_19_01.thumb.png.61c14b0dcaa35e03d49b254fcd489261.png

We got absolutely battered in terms of chances created yesterday. We created absolutely nothing after the 32nd minute. 2.0+ of the 3.4+ xG we conceded was prior to Legge's sending off on 68.

We had a good spell from 15 to about 33 but after that might as well as have not bothered. Keeping a clean sheet would have been a miracle. In football, you simply cannot concede that many chances and expect to gain anything.

Askey bemoaned the luck of it 'ricocheting' off someone and falling to Ellison, but when you're giving the opposition this many chances, in a game as random as football, you're setting yourself up to concede.

I didn't think we were that good yesterday and people only cooed about us being 'better' as we'd been so turgid in the last 3 games. We were getting pummelled before Legge's dismissal, specifically in the 10 minutes before half time.

You don't win games shipping these sorts of numbers, even before the red, and you certainly don't win promotion with it.

How do you explain Scunny and King's Lynn both beating us with one shot on target, Joe?  That doesn't make sense according to the stats does it. 

Edited by Jacko51
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18 minutes ago, Jacko51 said:

How do you explain Scunny and King's Lynn both beating us with one shot on target, Joe?  That doesn't make sense according to the stats does it. 

Because, over time, these things balance out. Yesterday's stats merely prove we conceded a lot of chances and were lucky for it to be 0-0 going into 90+6. 

If you take the xG from every game this season, we're actually currently above where average finishing (for and against) would have us. We're blessed to have a keeper that has kept out around 4 extra goals than an average keeper would. What we're seeing currently is our early season form (winning games having had lower quality chances than the opposition) simply regressing to the mean.

We got unlucky against Scunthorpe but conversely were lucky to win against Exeter, for example. At this level, with quality low, it's very difficult to perform above the average for 46 games.

There are obviously anomalies in this table (Harrogate, Barrow, and Cambridge) but we saw that Harrogate were a decent side, and Cambridge have only won 2 of their last 5 so the regression seems to be happening there. These are never perfect as some sides have great/bad keepers or great/bad finishers, but they give a good indication as to how successful teams are at the number one barometer of a successful side; creating and limiting chances.

When you start to throw in regression and add a touch of 'consistently bottling it in the last minute' and 'unable to create good chances through the middle, so utilising the wings with a lone 5"8 striker", you get the 4 consecutive defeats we're experiencing now.

1691071877_Screenshot2020-11-22at10_43_55.thumb.png.57e8a442338e5b1c2dd420fe9309fe78.png

This table has us 13th, and we're currently one point above 13th.

Edited by Joe B
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I think we will see the best of this side when Joyce,Conlon and Manny are our midfield three,on a regular basis, with Manny getting forward more.Wozza murdered their right back in the first half but had to swop wings after the sending off.Their commentators remarked how dangerous we were on the break.That changed ,unfortunately.There has been too many changes up front.One striker,as is JA’s preference,should play every week.Cullen ,whose first touch is normally very good would be my preference.Robbo would get better with games.Rodney needs a bit more coaching and needs to calm down.Popey is ,now ,a 20 minute sub when we are winning.The lack of goals is a concern but I think playing Manny further forward will create better and more chances.

Edited by Howjy04
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Joe, I understand your fascination with stats, I share it to some extent, but out of interest, to what extent do these stats take account of the randomness of refereeing decisions. 

You are too young to have seen Everton avoid relegation at the expense of Bolton when a Bolton "goal" which had clearly crossed the line was not given.   How did Leicester win the Prem when they were outplayed in so many games in terms of possession and chances? 

Stats have their place but they are not the bible.  Random chance plays a part in football and the suggestion that it evens out is just not true - have a look at the number of times Man United get the benefit of "random chance"!

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So our four most experienced players have let us down...Pope starts the season suspended...Joyce sent off.....Brown decides to take a free kick from the half way line....Legge gets sent off......and is six minutes of Fergy time the new norm.

So having won three on the bounce and cruising to victory at 2 nil up Joyce is sent off but the ten men were 3-2 up on ninety minutes.....the general feeling though was without the sending off we were playing well and it looked a comfortable win....next game away team park the bus and apart from the madness of a goalkeeper stood on the half way line having lofted the ball to their keeper who instantly throws out to the winger who uses that trick of running fast and kicking the ball into the net before Brown could get back in position.....but even yesterday for ninety five minutes and fifty seconds and ending up down to ten men for the second time in a week that would have been a truly great away point in a game that before kick off with or without recent misfortunes everyone calculated as an almost certain away loss and no points.

So is there any good news in the present gloom....mostly that Oyeleke has got consecutive games and McKirdy has likewise got game time...don't  know the extent of Conlon's injury but Joyce and Legge will miss tuesday which means a chance for Brisley to take the shirt and perhaps left midfield a chance for Hurst maybe.

The main thing is being ninth and so in the top ten and a point of the play offs given the week we've had and a win on tuesday could see us fifth and just a couple of points off automatics.

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I didn't watch the game yesterday but to be honest when listening on radio Stoke you just knew a goal was on the cards at any time.

To me, expectation is and should be high in what when all said and done is a mediocre league, perhaps even more so with Covid budget restrictions.

i believe that Askey has been backed with the exception of Maynard (who may never have intended coming to Vale anyway - just playing them).

That said, even in the early game weeks the problems were there for all to see.

1) No one has replaced Tom Pope and he still is our No1 striker

2) We lack creativity and aggression in midfield. too much side to side, no forward cutting passes. pedestrian.

3) Playing Worrall, Amoo, Mckiirdy, Montano or whoever wide often results in no end result with no defined target man. Lots of effort - no end result.

4) We appear set up "not to lose" like a low budget side hanging on for results, this works away but home form and tactics are appalling.

5) The squad is again made up of like-type players, quantity over quality

 

I would appreciate the opinion of someone like Micky Adams on the set up.

"We should do better, we can do better, we need to do better"  should replace "Want, Need, Expect" on the shirts

Edited by pete vale

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16 minutes ago, Howjy04 said:

I think we will see the best of this side when Joyce,Conlon and Manny are our midfield three,on a regular basis, with Manny getting forward more.Wozza murdered their right back in the first half but had to swop wings after the sending off.Their commentators remarked how dangerous we were on the break.That changed ,unfortunately.There has been too many changes up front.One striker,as is JA’s preference,should play every week.Cullen ,whose first touch is normally very good would be my preference.Robbo would get better with games.Rodney needs a bit more coaching and needs to calm down.Popey is ,now ,a 20 minute sub when we are winning.The lack of goals is a concern but I think playing Manny further forward will create better and more chances.

Spot on!Add Gibbons to the mix ,when fit, a decent summarising 😁

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28 minutes ago, Jacko51 said:

Joe, I understand your fascination with stats, I share it to some extent, but out of interest, to what extent do these stats take account of the randomness of refereeing decisions. 

You are too young to have seen Everton avoid relegation at the expense of Bolton when a Bolton "goal" which had clearly crossed the line was not given.   How did Leicester win the Prem when they were outplayed in so many games in terms of possession and chances? 

Stats have their place but they are not the bible.  Random chance plays a part in football and the suggestion that it evens out is just not true - have a look at the number of times Man United get the benefit of "random chance"!

We’re Leicester outplayed? I don’t think they were, the set up to play counter attacking football that’s different from being outplayed. Possession means literally nothing you see that at every level including vale (games like Scunthorpe) there’s always the randomness as you say with referees and there are anomalies. However the stats don’t lie. We don’t create anything and the stats show this. I think to your question I don’t imagine the stats joe posted take into referee decisions at all

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It was interesting to hear Danny Cowley on EFL talking about stats. He said it was Ok to take something from out but only one really matters.

In stark contrast to us he said this plan is to get the ball quickly to your skills players and is not interested in playing for possession at the back... pointless possession he called it.

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15 hours ago, Guitar Ray said:

If Fitz had a shout, "leave" or "time", or whatever, then fair enough, but if not he has to deal with it to be on the safe side unless he's absolutely sure where the winger is behind him.  After that I'm not sure if he miskicked, trying to hook the ball away, or opted to play it straight out.

As soon as it happened I though "Oh no watch them score from this".....how many times do goals come from that type of "mistake" or corners/fouls/throw ins that are given the wrong way?

Felt really sick after yesterday's result because we genuinely didn't deserve that BUT it WILL change. We just needed a point from a fighting display like that to turn the corner. Having said that I was impressed by them and thought we would struggle first 15/20 minutes......their movement and crisp passing on a rugby pitch were pretty impressive and they worked 3/4 openings. Mind you, we should have scored 2/3 as well in the first half.

Onto Stevenage hey.....

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15 hours ago, valefan16 said:

Tough one to take again, all four defeats hurt and all four we should of got a result on balance of play or circumstance.

Today I thought we played well, annoyingly when Legge saw red we’d actually got through the storm and had seemed to gain control of the game again similar to the first half.

Referee was picky but don’t think he got much wrong. Oddly though added 4 minutes first half which seemed a lot, Conlon had treatment which took up over a minute or so possibly two and he blew up at 49!

Worrall was superb, Brisley did well. Thought Clark was sloppy today at times. Rodney... I thought he had a shocker, looked half arsed at times and gave the ball away numerous times causing a counter. He’s raw very raw.

Cullen is struggling for form, he’s a good player, a goal scorer but when he gets chances he’s not looking right at the moment. That header first half is an easy chance for his calibre, plus the chance to slot away after a great passing move late first half that he fired at the keeper. Robinson has been poor, didn’t feel he out enough in late on was jogging a lot.

Injuries are a concern, best hope no further isolations are required.

Thought we defended well and unlike Tranmere managed it well but a poor corner ironically and a lucky bounce and game over.

Huge game Tuesday. Have to be winning that.

Two weeks of massive frustration and feel like we just are not getting any luck or rub of the green lately.

Pretty spot on my thoughts too.

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