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Match Thread: Newport County v Port Vale


Fosse69

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28 minutes ago, Jacko51 said:

Joe, I understand your fascination with stats, I share it to some extent, but out of interest, to what extent do these stats take account of the randomness of refereeing decisions. 

You are too young to have seen Everton avoid relegation at the expense of Bolton when a Bolton "goal" which had clearly crossed the line was not given.   How did Leicester win the Prem when they were outplayed in so many games in terms of possession and chances? 

Stats have their place but they are not the bible.  Random chance plays a part in football and the suggestion that it evens out is just not true - have a look at the number of times Man United get the benefit of "random chance"!

We’re Leicester outplayed? I don’t think they were, the set up to play counter attacking football that’s different from being outplayed. Possession means literally nothing you see that at every level including vale (games like Scunthorpe) there’s always the randomness as you say with referees and there are anomalies. However the stats don’t lie. We don’t create anything and the stats show this. I think to your question I don’t imagine the stats joe posted take into referee decisions at all

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It was interesting to hear Danny Cowley on EFL talking about stats. He said it was Ok to take something from out but only one really matters.

In stark contrast to us he said this plan is to get the ball quickly to your skills players and is not interested in playing for possession at the back... pointless possession he called it.

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15 hours ago, Guitar Ray said:

If Fitz had a shout, "leave" or "time", or whatever, then fair enough, but if not he has to deal with it to be on the safe side unless he's absolutely sure where the winger is behind him.  After that I'm not sure if he miskicked, trying to hook the ball away, or opted to play it straight out.

As soon as it happened I though "Oh no watch them score from this".....how many times do goals come from that type of "mistake" or corners/fouls/throw ins that are given the wrong way?

Felt really sick after yesterday's result because we genuinely didn't deserve that BUT it WILL change. We just needed a point from a fighting display like that to turn the corner. Having said that I was impressed by them and thought we would struggle first 15/20 minutes......their movement and crisp passing on a rugby pitch were pretty impressive and they worked 3/4 openings. Mind you, we should have scored 2/3 as well in the first half.

Onto Stevenage hey.....

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15 hours ago, valefan16 said:

Tough one to take again, all four defeats hurt and all four we should of got a result on balance of play or circumstance.

Today I thought we played well, annoyingly when Legge saw red we’d actually got through the storm and had seemed to gain control of the game again similar to the first half.

Referee was picky but don’t think he got much wrong. Oddly though added 4 minutes first half which seemed a lot, Conlon had treatment which took up over a minute or so possibly two and he blew up at 49!

Worrall was superb, Brisley did well. Thought Clark was sloppy today at times. Rodney... I thought he had a shocker, looked half arsed at times and gave the ball away numerous times causing a counter. He’s raw very raw.

Cullen is struggling for form, he’s a good player, a goal scorer but when he gets chances he’s not looking right at the moment. That header first half is an easy chance for his calibre, plus the chance to slot away after a great passing move late first half that he fired at the keeper. Robinson has been poor, didn’t feel he out enough in late on was jogging a lot.

Injuries are a concern, best hope no further isolations are required.

Thought we defended well and unlike Tranmere managed it well but a poor corner ironically and a lucky bounce and game over.

Huge game Tuesday. Have to be winning that.

Two weeks of massive frustration and feel like we just are not getting any luck or rub of the green lately.

Pretty spot on my thoughts too.

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1 hour ago, Jacko51 said:

Joe, I understand your fascination with stats, I share it to some extent, but out of interest, to what extent do these stats take account of the randomness of refereeing decisions. 

You are too young to have seen Everton avoid relegation at the expense of Bolton when a Bolton "goal" which had clearly crossed the line was not given.   How did Leicester win the Prem when they were outplayed in so many games in terms of possession and chances? 

Stats have their place but they are not the bible.  Random chance plays a part in football and the suggestion that it evens out is just not true - have a look at the number of times Man United get the benefit of "random chance"!

I fully agree; especially at this level, luck and chance play a large role.

We can't control it. What we can do, is do better in the things we can control. Notably, creating good chances for the forwards to score and then restricting the opposition from doing the same.

The stats suggest we are currently doing the above at a mid-table rate. Now, things might start falling for us and we might start picking up the points we should have done. But, whilst we perform whilst we are, we're leaving far too much in the hands of chance.

Newport created a bucketload of chances yesterday, which increased the probability they'd eventually get a lucky break (which they did). In certain respects, you make (or at least impact) your own luck, and we're not helping ourselves at all.

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I wonder if it's time to try a 3-5-2 formation. We don't lose a body in midfield and we get that extra player up top which we so badly need. Playing off Pope will instantly make the likes of Cullen and Rodney a bigger threat. For the time being we can use Montano and Clark as wing-backs. It means Amoo missing out (he's injured a lot anyway to be fair) and Worrall going into midfield if he's to retain his place.

Brown

Smith

Legge

Brisley

Clarke

Joyce

Oyeleke

Worrall

Montano

Pope

Cullen

Something has to change. We can't keep playing with one up top, it's not working and we are in danger of sliding down the league big time. No point trying to find a place for McKirdy because clearly Askey doesn't quite fancy him despite him being our most creative player potentially.

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3 hours ago, werstayinup said:

Didnt you say to us at the time that no way would he sign for vale?

Yes and I was more surprised than anyone when he did. I like the lad and really hope he succeeds here and I hear he is enjoying it at Vale. Lets hope we start enjoying his performances soon. 

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No, that's not true at all. 
Crewe played superb stuff in a 433 last season and got promoted and are now sitting decently in League 1. Swindon also played a 433 and walked the title. Plymouth finished 3rd and played 4231.
This is amongst the most reductive "2+2 =5" arguments I've seen in a while
 

But it simply isn’t working for us.
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Do you not think that I want Vale to get promotion? Who said I was writing off the season? Keep Askey - we may get promotion. Sack Askey - we may get promotion. No one has a crystal ball. Bringing in a new manager has risks. It’s about managing the risks. 
I think sometimes people do not have a realistic view of things. When considering the best way to run a team you need a measured (no emotion attached) approach. 
Sacking a manager does give instant success or success at all.
So Vital Spark, what would you do?

Personally, I think it’s time for a change. If the owners are happy with grinding out the odd win from dire performances then that’s fine. But in terms of attracting back fans and achieving success and excitement then I don’t feel we have the right man at the helm.

But that’s just my opinion.
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40 minutes ago, MBE said:

It was interesting to hear Danny Cowley on EFL talking about stats. He said it was Ok to take something from out but only one really matters.

In stark contrast to us he said this plan is to get the ball quickly to your skills players and is not interested in playing for possession at the back... pointless possession he called it.

Yes,he was referring to the fact that Crewe had 70% possession and lost 4-1.You can pass it around at the back all you want but it doesn't help you get nearer the final third.

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9 minutes ago, For Us All said:

Yes,he was referring to the fact that Crewe had 70% possession and lost 4-1.You can pass it around at the back all you want but it doesn't help you get nearer the final third.

Fulham being a prime example, when you move up a league. You do need to be clinical and efficient with the possession. 

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Who then? 

As an owner of a club it’s about making a judgement. Looking at pros and cons of sacking/remaining with the current manager. Looking at pros and cons of the new manager based on who’s available, how long is left in the season etc.

I feel that some people think that a new manager = success. And when you add the ‘emotional side’ to your point, it can, to some, sound really appealing. Like ‘excitement’, ‘success’ etc.

As I’m sure you are aware, sacking a manager can have massive implications. Sometimes good, sometimes bad.

My opinion, at the moment, with just over a quarter of the season gone, is let Askey and Kevin try and sort it.

However, don’t feel like I want mediocrity and don’t want success - I do want success. I’m not blind to what’s happening at the moment but feel a reasoned approach is necessary.

When Carol makes a decision about the manager, she won’t make it with her ‘fans’ head on, she will remove all of the attached emotion and make a reasoned, strategic decision. One that is in the club’s interest.

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  1. 12 minutes ago, Diego Maradona said:

    Who then? 

    As an owner of a club it’s about making a judgement. Looking at pros and cons of sacking/remaining with the current manager. Looking at pros and cons of the new manager based on who’s available, how long is left in the season etc.

    I feel that some people think that a new manager = success. And when you add the ‘emotional side’ to your point, it can, to some, sound really appealing. Like ‘excitement’, ‘success’ etc.

    As I’m sure you are aware, sacking a manager can have massive implications. Sometimes good, sometimes bad.

    My opinion, at the moment, with just over a quarter of the season gone, is let Askey and Kevin try and sort it.

    However, don’t feel like I want mediocrity and don’t want success - I do want success. I’m not blind to what’s happening at the moment but feel a reasoned approach is necessary.

    When Carol makes a decision about the manager, she won’t make it with her ‘fans’ head on, she will remove all of the attached emotion and make a reasoned, strategic decision. One that is in the club’s interest.

    Agree about the effect of chopping and changing managers.  We were in the top half of League One when folk on here were fed up with Rob Page and Smurf effectively pushed him out.  Since then we've had four different managers and Askey is the only one who has given the slightest sign that he knows what he's doing. 

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