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Promotion odds


darren1810

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3 hours ago, Joe B said:

As things stand, 10th seems about right to me. Whether I'd put those exact teams in that exact order 1-9 is a different question.

In what universe are we 4 places worse off than last season we've lost Swindon, Crewe and Plymouth? We've gained Bolton and Tranmere, admittedly, but Southend are abysmal. Forest Green being shorter odds than us is laughable as well. The inclusions of Bradford, Salford, Bolton, Mansfield etc.. are just lazy and looking at the size of clubs and money thrown about. Tranmere have recruited far better than all of those sides and I fancy them for top three myself.

We'll finish top seven, IMO. For us to push up into the top three, it'll boil down to who the final two permanent outfield signings are. Get them of a decent quality and who knows?

Anyway, how often do they ever get these odds correct? 2 out of the fancied lot always have a shocker and finish nowhere near. Mansfield, Bradford and Scunthorpe being prime examples last year. There's always one or two tipped to struggle or hover around midtable that have a blinder too. Ourselves and Crewe fall into that category. It's all pure guesswork.

Football won't return to normality for a long while, so absolutely anyone could finish anywhere for me. It's whoever adapts to the situation better. Some sides will suffer massively with hugely reduced crowds whereas some of the smaller sides used to low attendances and next to no atmosphere may take advantage with next to no pressure from within the stands.

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As things stand, 10th seems about right to me. Whether I'd put those exact teams in that exact order 1-9 is a different question.


Maybe not as extreme as 10th down the list, however I’m sure the manager will take this, takes any pressure off the team to a certain extent. We all get carried away sometimes, so this sort of thing is a nice reminder that there is quality in the division, aside from ourselves. Playoffs is a very very realistic target.
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Quite a few years ago I had this very conversation with a friend of mine who, at the time, was a bookmaker.

He told me that odds were generally calculated by the amount of money which was placed (or expected to be placed) on teams, rather than the expectations of the teams chances per se.

Hence why the “bigger” sides are given the shorter odds, as more people (ie larger fan base) are likely to favour their chances. 
 

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1 hour ago, RailwayRowdy said:

Quite a few years ago I had this very conversation with a friend of mine who, at the time, was a bookmaker.

He told me that odds were generally calculated by the amount of money which was placed (or expected to be placed) on teams, rather than the expectations of the teams chances per se.

Hence why the “bigger” sides are given the shorter odds, as more people (ie larger fan base) are likely to favour their chances. 
 

so were not classed as a big club in di2?☹️

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Colchester seem to be struggling. Lost a lot of players and not signed anyone too impressive. I can see the neutral going for us as about 10th. Mainly because they don’t see the improvements made and why we would be pleased about keeping the squad from last season.

We had two poor prior seasons and they will scare off many putting money on us. We also don’t have the 1 big marquee signing that would get the neutrals flocking to put money down. Sign Maynard and that will change. 

Personally as a fan and seeing the transformation in the club, I see us as about the 4th best squad and amongst those going for the automatic places. 

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I know Mansfield didn't do well last season but that seemed to be an exception to the rule, usually at this level if you chuck a bit of money around you seem to do well. Can hardly go pricing them up at 33/1 or bigger, same with Salford

its not totally to do with money placed, whilst that is a factor, pricing mistakes would always be punished, so the initial market has to be in the ballpark, Cheltenham aren't a big club but you couldn't be putting them at large odds just because you don't expect a mad rush of money for them

the bigger firms will run simulations of a season based on shot stats, we finished 10th on those last season. Then adjust a bit like you mention where they think they might take a bit of money, as its only business sense if they think they can lay a 9/1 shot at 7/1

So based on those stats, whilst we finished slightly higher, it's not a surprise to see us rated about the 10th best team by bookies whether we agree or not

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