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Transfer Rumours Pre-Season


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4 hours ago, Joe B said:

Interestingly we have retained the most 'minutes played' of any League 2 side; 89.1% of our 'minutes' from 19/20 are still at the club  (46 games x 11 players x 90 minutes, so 40,576 of our 45,540 minutes from last season are still at the club, roughly):

image.thumb.png.6ea6a6b4380225a6e8fd8d8de3ac68ef.png

Initial thought process would suggest this is great; settled squad, continuity, familiarity with system etc etc.

Somebody asked the bloke behind the above graphic (Ben Mayhew of @experimental361, who is brilliant) if there was any correlation between having no 'squad churn' (retaining as much of your minutes as possible, and having a settled squad) and promotion.

This was the answer:

1146515208_Screenshot2020-08-24at18_27_09.thumb.png.0be5b0f370439c90f534ec3b21ff563d.png

There may be a slight correlation, but last year in the Championship, League 1, and League, 2 of the promoted teams from each league (out of 3 for C'ship and L1, and 4 for L2) were in the top 6 for lost minutes, implying high squad churn/turnover.

Crewe were 5th for most retained minutes, but Plymouth, Swindon, and Northampton had the 3rd, 4th, and 7th MOST LOST minutes, respectively. They had massive turnovers of starting 11. There simply isn't a correlation evident between settled squads and promotion winners. 

The most settled teams last year, lacking churn? Salford (11th), Mansfield (21st), Orient (17th), Crawley (13th), Crewe (2nd).

Just an interesting thing to think about, in my view. Just trying to provoke discussion. I'm not suggesting we're bad. Just a very clear narrative has emerged amongst Vale fans that we're set for the playoffs, and whilst I think there's a very decent chance of that, I'm not quite as confident at present.

That obviously makes me a big moaner, ultra-negative, and not a real fan.

Whilst the 'churn' stats are interesting. I think a lot more comes into play with all the teams mentioned. Plymouth I would always class as a big club when at league two level(history and fanbase wise) and would by enlarge expect them to do well when in the 4th tier, especially with the budget they had. Plus you are always going to have a reasonable turnover of players after relegation and also having a new manager which they did. Swindon and Northampton both underachieved the season previous to some extent if I remember rightly as they are again clubs I'd expect to see in the top 10 when in league two all things being equal. 

With regards to those who had less turnover of minutes, Salford and Orient were both promoted and probably attempted to go with the momentum and status quo of a successful side. If you ask both sets of fans I don't think they'd be too disappointed with where they finished all things considered. Although Salford's budget is probably ridiculous a number of their players were with them in the NL North when last season started. they were going to hit a wall eventually. They strengthed quite considerable in January too just to get as high as 11th. 

Mansfield admittedly had a shocker despite having roughly the same squad but I think they dropped one firing Flitcroft after the playoff defeat the season before? Crawley I think broke relatively even at 13th which you could argue is pretty decent for a side who must be bottom 6 budget wise and Crewe had a very good season and went up.

It's swings and roundabouts but the point I'm making is there is a back story to every clubs position whether there is a turnover of players or not. Some need it some don't depending on what has happened the season or two previously. 

Strong leadership on and off the pitch will hopefully go a long way in helping Vale to do well🙂

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5 hours ago, Joe B said:

Fully agree. Far too many leaks over this striker. UV hinted about Maynard 2 months ago. Alan Nixon mentioned Hope. There is another name which apparently we were after if Maynard fell through (no idea what happened there). Also a winger who we failed to sign.

I'm not even close to ITK; I know literally no one in the club and simply peruse social media. Some people on Twitter were predicting things accurately weeks in advance. 

The source needs to be found pronto.

There are people on here that drop little posts in which clearly insinuate they are "ITK" about the club's spending power, transfer targets, contract discussions, etc. I suspect they probably do know and are not bullshyyting, yet these same people have been doing it for years - through periods of different owners, boards, managers, coaching staff, playing staff.

So who / where do they continually get this info from? - or are they just serial behind-the-scenes brown-nosers, that are prepared to "sniff out" the required details from whoever it takes?! (anyone remember the Phantom Raspberry Blower from the Two Ronnies?.......Vale have got a case of The Revolving-Door Brown Noser!)

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To clarify, was Theo a Southend player or Colchester? I could understand the latter not being able to afford him but not his parent club, they mustn’t rate him I assume? 
Like I said earlier, give him a chance. 

Was a Southend player but look it up ... they’re in even more of a mess financially than Colchester. Literally had to play the kids last season!
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10 hours ago, Joe B said:

Interestingly we have retained the most 'minutes played' of any League 2 side; 89.1% of our 'minutes' from 19/20 are still at the club  (46 games x 11 players x 90 minutes, so 40,576 of our 45,540 minutes from last season are still at the club, roughly):

image.thumb.png.6ea6a6b4380225a6e8fd8d8de3ac68ef.png

Initial thought process would suggest this is great; settled squad, continuity, familiarity with system etc etc.

Somebody asked the bloke behind the above graphic (Ben Mayhew of @experimental361, who is brilliant) if there was any correlation between having no 'squad churn' (retaining as much of your minutes as possible, and having a settled squad) and promotion.

This was the answer:

1146515208_Screenshot2020-08-24at18_27_09.thumb.png.0be5b0f370439c90f534ec3b21ff563d.png

There may be a slight correlation, but last year in the Championship, League 1, and League, 2 of the promoted teams from each league (out of 3 for C'ship and L1, and 4 for L2) were in the top 6 for lost minutes, implying high squad churn/turnover.

Crewe were 5th for most retained minutes, but Plymouth, Swindon, and Northampton had the 3rd, 4th, and 7th MOST LOST minutes, respectively. They had massive turnovers of starting 11. There simply isn't a correlation evident between settled squads and promotion winners. 

The most settled teams last year, lacking churn? Salford (11th), Mansfield (21st), Orient (17th), Crawley (13th), Crewe (2nd).

Just an interesting thing to think about, in my view. Just trying to provoke discussion. I'm not suggesting we're bad. Just a very clear narrative has emerged amongst Vale fans that we're set for the playoffs, and whilst I think there's a very decent chance of that, I'm not quite as confident at present.

That obviously makes me a big moaner, ultra-negative, and not a real fan.

There is a flaw in these statistics. Some clubs with low churn rates actually had big changes in their first teams and got much bigger squads. Salford actually signed 14 players last season, Mansfield 8 but a lot started their first game.

Some of the clubs with high churn rates were clubs who relied on relatively expensive loan signings for a few years, or in the case of Plymouth drafted in a lot of players from a club (Bury) promoted the year before.

A more interesting analysis would be the percentage of players in the first 5 games who were new to the club. We had a big turnover in staff last season BUT our starting 11 for the first game was pretty stable.

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6 hours ago, CAVALIER said:

To clarify, was Theo a Southend player or Colchester? I could understand the latter not being able to afford him but not his parent club, they mustn’t rate him I assume? 
Like I said earlier, give him a chance. 

Neither of them could afford him,southend are in more trouble than colchester

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3 hours ago, werstayinup said:

Neither of them could afford him,southend are in more trouble than colchester

And this is why we should be so thankful for the owners, staff and management we have. 

5 months with no revenue, and goes know how much longer! 

Signing anyone is a bonus that some clubs cant even consider, let alone ones with some pedigree! 

Hope my post dosent end up with name calling! 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Nofinikea said:

I think its more those with the differing opinion tend to be a bit pompous about it.

Disagree. If you have a different opinion on here you get shot down. Always have done. I got the usual your not a proper fan comments sent yesterday just because I have a different view on the Robinson signing. 

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2 minutes ago, Gallifreyan Valiant said:
49 minutes ago, Jacko51 said:
There is no such thing as a “proper” fan. 

Everybody has different views and opinions, some atttend less matches than others for various reasons. We are all Vale regardless of anything and there should have a mutual respect. A Vale fan is a Vale fan.

Exactly. 

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15 hours ago, philpvfc said:

Just hope he plays better than last time we had him. 

I don't understand why people want to bring up his loan spell five years ago. 

For me, five years in football is an age ago. He was out of form, needed some games to get match fit and was clearly unhappy at Motherwell when he joined us last. He hadn't played in Scotland for a month and joined a side that had only scored four goals in 2016 and were badly out of form as well. That's often the case with loan players - they need half a dozen games to just get up to speed - that's precisely why their parent clubs loan them out to get match fit.

It's totally different now - he's got five years more experience including 50 games in this division, he reached double figures last season at Colchester, he's joining a side with wingers who should provide plenty of chances, a positive atmosphere with good owners and in a lower division than when he first joined us

Personally, I don't think his previous spell when he was clearly struggling with no match fitness has any relevance on what he can do this season. I hope people give him a clean slate and wait to see a few appearances in his second spell before passing judgement.

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2 hours ago, Jacob_123 said:

I don’t know him but Joe B is one of the better posters on here and some of the abuse he has been getting is bang out of order. Everyone is allowed an opinion (not that he has even stated his opinion on this signing)

I do know Joe and he is an extremely sound young man.  Not convinced about his Dad though ........ 😜

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