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4 hours ago, philpvfc said:

I think our method is probably the best way of getting an accurate figure, i.e. if someone dies in hospital or anywhere else and they had the symptoms of Covid then it is classed as death by Covid. Yes, you may have a few cases of Pneumonia without Covid as cause but they will be very few, Germany’s method as is probably the way of many other countries of not counting Covid deaths unless tested will drive the figures down massively, not many people in care homes will be tested.

I agree with some of what you say. In an average month in the uk 3000 people die of pneumonia, so its not an uncommon cause of death. 

The only accurate way will be to compare this year's monthly mortality rates with averages from similar months. All countries have different reporting systems and testing capabilities,  which you would ecpect as all have different healthcare systems.

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11 hours ago, JRC said:

I agree with some of what you say. In an average month in the uk 3000 people die of pneumonia, so its not an uncommon cause of death. 

 

Approx 14.000 people each year die from pneumonia so 1150 per month on average. 

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17 hours ago, philpvfc said:

I think our method is probably the best way of getting an accurate figure, i.e. if someone dies in hospital or anywhere else and they had the symptoms of Covid then it is classed as death by Covid. Yes, you may have a few cases of Pneumonia without Covid as cause but they will be very few, Germany’s method as is probably the way of many other countries of not counting Covid deaths unless tested will drive the figures down massively, not many people in care homes will be tested.

That is fine but here there is plenty of evidence that we weren`t testing old people from homes, just sending them back home.  The best way to find out how many deaths it is causing is to look at how many people above the average are dying.  

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1 hour ago, bycars rob said:

Also interesting that a doctor in France has found a case on December 27th. I wonder what time it was circulating here as I had many of the classic symtoms of covid 19 at beginning of January.

http://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20200429-french-coronavirus-strain-may-be-local-and-may-not-have-come-from-china

The French scientists also speculate that some kind of strain might have been circulating around the country at that time and that the strain is separate from the one that came out of China.

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22 hours ago, Wrex said:

http://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20200429-french-coronavirus-strain-may-be-local-and-may-not-have-come-from-china

The French scientists also speculate that some kind of strain might have been circulating around the country at that time and that the strain is separate from the one that came out of China.

I think this shows that the likelihood of ever knowing the event when covid 19 first arrived in the human population is unlikely to be known. The US having a severe winter flu this year seems more likely to have been covid 19 than common flu to my untrained way of thinking. China have found samples from deaths in November which they retested in March to have had the virus. The US has also found that where earlier samples were tested some also had covid 19. It just adds to the difficulty of knowing how many people have died. Another issue is that the accuracy of the tests has improved. It's likely that some early deaths who were negative would have been positive with more accurate tests. The virus emerging during peak flu season in the northen hemisphere didn't help with its identification early in the epidemic as there was nothing unusual about a number of people dying from these types of symptoms at the time of year.

My guess remains it first emerged in China. The earliest Chinese retrospective diagnosed cases were in Wuhan but not connected to the live animal market. I think it's quite conceivable the first transmission was outside the market but the conditions in the market made it ideal for human to human transmission,  leading to the first significant cluster. 

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It's going to be fun watching the anti hijab/burka crew be told to wear a face mask. "Shouldn't be forced to cover faces in free society" "if you cant see a face you can't see the person" etc. Beep this vehicle is reversing. 

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12 minutes ago, WV said:

It's going to be fun watching the anti hijab/burka crew be told to wear a face mask. "Shouldn't be forced to cover faces in free society" "if you cant see a face you can't see the person" etc. Beep this vehicle is reversing. 

That's a strange stance to take, I'm know there are people who have legitimate reasons for being anti hijab/burka so not sure why this will be funny to watch them. If you are implying that it will be funny to watch anti-Islamic bigots then yes it will be quite ironic to see their reaction.

 

I'm someone who takes freedom and liberty very seriously and would normally be horrified to be locked down and doubly horrified at the thought of a Government app that specifically tracks who we interact with. But this is about saving lives, I think it is possible  (and actually admirable) to recognise that it is appropriate to flex personal views when there is a material change in circumstances.

 

Also spare a thought also for the hard of hearing. Someone very close to me will simply not be able to communicate with people who wear a mask or other face mask, and that is causing a great deal of anxiety now too.

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4 hours ago, WV said:

It's going to be fun watching the anti hijab/burka crew be told to wear a face mask. "Shouldn't be forced to cover faces in free society" "if you cant see a face you can't see the person" etc. Beep this vehicle is reversing. 

I've never had a problem with people wearing hijab/burka..... I do have a problem with people being told to remove their crash hat, scarf, balaclava or any other item they choose to wear but not the hijab/burka.

The law and policy should be applied to all equally

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31 minutes ago, geosname said:

As for the phone app....... I'm against it.

It wouldn't affect me if I was in the country.

I had thought of switching  Bluetooth off if I am ever allowed out, but would I be  barred from entering supermarkets if not emitting a signal?

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