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20 hours ago, leedsvaliant said:
20 hours ago, Fosse69 said:
With his legal background the need for the appropriate evidence is in his blood. 

Well....quite. You'd want to be absolutely sure wouldn't you?

It is a new variant so the evidence yet doesn`t exist. It will shortly and hopefully be good news. I see that Ferguson bloke is being quoted again, god knows why.

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It is a new variant so the evidence yet doesn`t exist. It will shortly and hopefully be good news. I see that Ferguson bloke is being quoted again, god knows why.
I agree....there isn't the evidence. Many South African scientists and doctors are aghast at the panic and hysteria. But let's listen to the modellers again who are so accurate. You would have thought lessons had been learnt.

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59 minutes ago, leedsvaliant said:
3 hours ago, bycars rob said:
It is a new variant so the evidence yet doesn`t exist. It will shortly and hopefully be good news. I see that Ferguson bloke is being quoted again, god knows why.

I agree....there isn't the evidence. Many South African scientists and doctors are aghast at the panic and hysteria. But let's listen to the modellers again who are so accurate. You would have thought lessons had been learnt.

They can only model the information they are given

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They can only model the information they are given
Which at the moment is making assumptions that Omicron is equally as severe as Delta. This simply cannot be proven and the fact that in a largely unvaccinated population in south Africa the symptoms appear to be mild and nobody in the world has died it would suggest that it isn't.

However the press have latched on to a model today that assumes that very scenario. Why would anybody look at a worse case scenario when the evidence in the epicentre of the new variant suggests completely the opposite?

I've come to the conclusion that people actually want restrictions on their lives.

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Which at the moment is making assumptions that Omicron is equally as severe as Delta. This simply cannot be proven and the fact that in a largely unvaccinated population in south Africa the symptoms appear to be mild and nobody in the world has died it would suggest that it isn't.

However the press have latched on to a model today that assumes that very scenario. Why would anybody look at a worse case scenario when the evidence in the epicentre of the new variant suggests completely the opposite?

I've come to the conclusion that people actually want restrictions on their lives.
I've come to the conclusion you like the sound of your own voice

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Here's an interesting piece by a former NHS doctor who is usually pretty fair in his assessment and does consider different scenarios:

It’s now two weeks since the world first heard of the Omicron variant. Travel restrictions and mask mandates were immediately reimposed on the U.K. population and have since been tightened further. Reports in the press this morning are trailing the reimposition of more curbs on liberty in the U.K. over the next few weeks. In today’s update, I will examine what we have learnt about the new variant and to what extent it may affect the situation in the NHS. This update is a bit data-heavy, so apologies in advance for the graphic fest.
South Africa is widely regarded as the epicentre of Omicron. Having spent considerable time working in that wonderful country, I can attest to the expertise of my South African medical colleagues, particularly in the field of infectious diseases. So, when Dr. Fareed Abdullah writes from the Steve Biko Hospital in Pretoria that the data so far on the Omicron variant suggests it is very much milder than the Delta variant, I’m inclined to take him seriously.
I encourage readers to examine this document themselves – this extract is worth quoting in full:

In summary, the first impression on examination of the 166 patients admitted since the Omicron variant made an appearance, together with the snapshot of the clinical profile of 42 patients currently in the Covid wards at the SBAH/TDH complex, is that the majority of hospital admissions are for diagnoses unrelated to Covid. The SARS-CoV-2 positivity is an incidental finding in these patients and is largely driven by hospital policy requiring testing of all patients requiring admission to the hospital.
Using the proportion of patients on room air as a marker for incidental Covid admission as opposed to severe Covid (pneumonia), 66% of patients at the SBAH/TDH complex are incidental Covid admissions. This very unusual picture is also occurring at other hospitals in Gauteng. On December 3rd, Helen Joseph Hospital had 37 patients in the Covid wards of whom 31 were on room air (83%); and the Dr. George Mukhari Academic Hospital had 80 patients of which 14 were on supplemental oxygen and one on a ventilator (81% on room air).

Dr. Richard Friedland, Chief Executive of Netcare (the largest private hospital group in South Africa), has been reported this week as saying Omicron infections are not causing a significant increase in hospitalisations and that the Omicron wave can be dealt with in primary care if this trend continues.
The E.U., the WHO and Dr. Anthony Fauci in the U.S. have all made reassuring statements to the effect that Omicron so far appears to cause mild symptoms and little in the way of hospitalisations.
So far, so encouraging. I was expecting more hard information at the Downing Street press conference on December 8th from the Chief Medical Officer. “Alas, it was with a heavy heart” that I found myself disappointed. Professor Whitty did refer to anecdotal information from South Africa that “hospitalisations have risen by 300%” but provided no source for his assertion. I have looked around and can’t find that published anywhere. I have asked South African friends for their views. My anecdotal information reports that South Africa currently has 500 serious Covid cases in hospital across the nation and the health system is well on top of the situation. Anecdote is frequently unreliable as a means of assessment – I will return to this point later in the piece.
The Prime Minister made reference to the “remorseless logic of exponential growth”, as did the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer with graphs of a steep upturn in Omicron variant cases tested in the U.K. At no point was any reference made to how many of the 560 cases identified to that date in the U.K. had ended up in hospital, nor any information as to how many people in South Africa have died as a direct consequence of Omicron infection – my informants tell me no-one has so far been recorded of dying from Omicron infection by the WHO. 
Comments were made in relation to the fact that the South African population is a younger demographic than that of the U.K. and therefore we may be more vulnerable to the variant. This is a reasonable point. I must have missed the counterargument that the vast majority of the South African population are unvaccinated and they also have the highest incidence of HIV in the world, both factors which may render their people more vulnerable to Covid infection than those in the U.K.
There were no remarks at the press conference as to how the modellers have varied their predictions to take into account Omicron encountering a population with a degree of prior familiarity with Covid and a high vaccination rate. It is reasonable to worry that Omicron may exhibit a degree of vaccine evasion and be able to reinfect people who have previously had Covid. But it is not sensible to assume the effect of Omicron will be similar to the first or second wave of Covid, when the virus was invading a completely immunologically naïve population. The track record of the epidemiological modelling community over the last 18 months hardly inspires confidence – on every previous occasion when their hypotheses have been tested against real-world data, the predictions have been huge overestimates. I have often recalled the comment of the great economist J.K. Galbraith to the effect that the only function of economic predictions was “to make astrology look respectable”.
I should make it clear that Omicron could spring a surprise and create another wave of serious disease – that is a possibility, although the data so far suggest otherwise. The press conference on December 8th provided speculation rather than facts in support of a worst-case hypothesis. As Steve Baker MP said in the House of Commons on December 9th, “We are taking away the public’s right to choose what they do based on flimsy and uncertain evidence.” It is disappointing that the Chief Medical Officer, with all the machinery of state at his disposal, can present less of an update to the public than I can with a laptop and a couple of hours of research.

He then goes into the current data in hospital with many of the current data in a better state than it was in July.


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51 minutes ago, leedsvaliant said:

Which at the moment is making assumptions that Omicron is equally as severe as Delta. This simply cannot be proven and the fact that in a largely unvaccinated population in south Africa the symptoms appear to be mild and nobody in the world has died it would suggest that it isn't.

However the press have latched on to a model today that assumes that very scenario. Why would anybody look at a worse case scenario when the evidence in the epicentre of the new variant suggests completely the opposite?

I've come to the conclusion that people actually want restrictions on their lives.

No people want rid of COVID. And if restrictions are required so be it.

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9 hours ago, leedsvaliant said:
11 hours ago, bycars rob said:
It is a new variant so the evidence yet doesn`t exist. It will shortly and hopefully be good news. I see that Ferguson bloke is being quoted again, god knows why.

I agree....there isn't the evidence. Many South African scientists and doctors are aghast at the panic and hysteria. But let's listen to the modellers again who are so accurate. You would have thought lessons had been learnt.

Lessons have been learnt..... a bit of panic creates a lot of space to do what you want.

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@leedsvaliant  You appear to be a lone voice arguing with the masses. 
 

For what it’s worth, I agree with most of what you’re saying. 
And your take on the new variant is absolutely spot on. 
 

Personally, I think this will be the beginning of the end. A new variant that spreads like wildfire but doesn’t make people seriously ill. End result of heard immunity. A natural vaccine. 
There is absolutely no evidence to support the panic the media are trying to promote. 
A suspicious mind might think it was a diversion tactic to take the focus away from the current Tory bad press. 🤔 

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@leedsvaliant  You appear to be a lone voice arguing with the masses. 
 
For what it’s worth, I agree with most of what you’re saying. 
And your take on the new variant is absolutely spot on. 
 
Personally, I think this will be the beginning of the end. A new variant that spreads like wildfire but doesn’t make people seriously ill. End result of heard immunity. A natural vaccine. 
There is absolutely no evidence to support the panic the media are trying to promote. 
A suspicious mind might think it was a diversion tactic to take the focus away from the current Tory bad press.  
Thank you George. I appreciate any support I can get! I agree with you by the way.

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On 08/12/2020 at 15:20, For Us All said:

I see Kay Burley is giving Rita Ora a run for her money for the Covidiot of the month award? 

Seems like it was Liar Johnson and his crony government who were the covidiots of the month. Do you agree? If i remember right Burley was suspended for 6 months. 

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