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14 hours ago, valeparklife said:

The odds of dying from COVID are 0.1269%

Without wanting to engage in a strawman

The most recent figures I could find regarding vaccine induced thromboembolism is 72 UK deaths. That was in a recent BBC report about that radio presenter who died. 

92,826,977 vaccines have so far been administered.

That’s a mortality rate of 7.75636591 to the power of minus 7. I can’t type the nomenclature superscript properly as I’m on a phone.

Based solely on UK figures, you are many thousands of times more likely to die from CV19 than any of the three approved vaccines.

You and LV are frequently at pains to suggest that 0.1269 is a microscopically small number.

Then how about 7.7 to the minus 7? That is literally several orders of magnitude lower.

So it follows that it appears quite illogical that the last few pages of this thread the usual suspects having a wobble over the concept of vaccination passports and mandatory rollouts for certain sectors like healthcare staff when the possibility of a negative event is such an improbability as to be negligible. Why is it ok for the CV19 IFR to be portrayed as extremely low but the many orders of magnitude lower vaccine side effect risk significant enough to be an issue? I’m not going to sit and work out comparisons with odds of other rare events as I’m on a phone without a proper scientific calculator so I’m likely to cock up working out the powers but I suspect you’re more likely to be attacked by an escaped Panther on Hamil Road later this afternoon than you are to suffer serious side effects from vaccination.

Again, not wanting to build a strawman but LV’s favourite word…context. 

 

Edited by Doha
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15 hours ago, leedsvaliant said:
16 hours ago, valeparklife said:
But I'm not talking about reducing deaths/hospitalisations, I was talking about "normality" (I've already offered my views into why the veracity of the data is a little dubious in previous posts).
If the deaths are in fact reducing (either vaccine/natural immunity related) then why are winter lockdowns even being discussed?
Why are people that have chosen to have the vaccine constantly belittling and abusing people that have chosen not to have the vaccine?
Why is everyone still so obsessed with other people's medical history?
Why is there still so much propaganda and scaremongering from the media about a virus with a 99.9%+ survival rate?
Why do people still wear masks even though they're proven to be ineffective?
Why do "vaccine passports" keep being discussed where people are being coerced into having the vaccine or risk losing all their freedom?
Why are vaccine's being pushed onto young children, even with compelling evidence of a 99.99999%+ survival rate in that age group?
Why do so many people agree with unvaccinated people losing all their civil rights, dignity and freedom?
This is no where near "normality" by my definition.

Absolutely. Until all of this incessant testing of healthy people stops, life would never be normal. If what is happening now in terms of deaths and hospitalisations had happened in September 2019, nobody would have batted an eyelid. What this has shown up is the fact that the human race is actually pretty pathetic.

No what this has shown is that measures taken back at the start of the pandemic have worked and have allowed us to get to some back of normality. Surely that’s the whole point. 

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14 hours ago, valeparklife said:

For those interested in some more stats on mortality/survival rate per age group, the ONS have some interesting numbers. I've added in the percentages myself for males + female just out of interest.

image.png.4b6db01f360b110dc688c484f9f73f6c.png

This is what baffles me. The mortality numbers are so low for the vast majority of the population. The survival rate for under-65 year olds is 99.9841%.

And every life is precious. Of course it is. Someone under 65 is worth just as much as someone 90 years old but the sad fact of life is that people die. People's health deteriorates as they get older, so they are more at risk, and more vulnerable to all sorts of illnesses. 30,000 pensioners freeze to death every year and it's horrible. But this is sadly the reality we live in. COVID is no different to the flu/common cold/freezing temperatures in that it will affect the vulnerable more than others.

But again, even the overall survival rate is still 99.8731% so how have we ended up in this mess? How are people literally terrified of this? Why have businesses and lives been destroyed? Why are people that don't feel a vaccine is necessary, having their freedom taken off them around the world? Why is there such division between people who want the vaccine and people that don't? Why has so much taxpayer money been wasted? When will this end?

The odds of dying from COVID are 0.1269%, the odds of dying of cancer are 28% (more than one in four of all deaths) - yet cancer has never been mentioned as much as COVID has been, and cancer has never created the same amount of fear in people!

Was that the % at the start of the pandemic or is that the % now? Now that masks and lockdowns and the vaccine have taken effect?

Taxpayer money ruined? If we didn’t have the vaccine we would still be in lockdown with deaths and cases still high, businesses would have crumbled because whether you like it or not, last year it was bad and people were rightly worried. 

I find you post contradictory. You mention how the % now for the vast majority of the population but then go onto say every life is precious. Well is it or not? What is wrong with protecting the elderly and vulnerable? It’s not difficult to put a mask on in a shop and protect others (I’m not having that masks do nothing). Numbers decreased before the vaccine when masks were compulsory). 

You don’t catch cancer or other people that is why. When this was a global pandemic and at its worst it was being passed around constantly, putting more and more pressure on the NHS and killing people, mainly elderly or vulnerable but I don’t understand why it seems ok to just allow that? Cancer is obviously far far worse nobody is arguing that. But it isn’t a virus that you catch of other people. I’m pretty certain cancer creates much more fear in people. 

I understand you don’t want a vaccine and I thought from previous posts that was due to its testing on long term effects. That’s fine, I don’t agree with people not having a vaccine because they don’t think it’s necessary. This goes back to people apparently being experts in every <ovf censored> field. 

We’re close to being back to normality, much closer than we ever would be if not for the vaccine and the 88% of people who have had the vaccine. I’m sure the number would be higher than that if not for pregnancies and others that can’t medically have it. If 100% of people had the vaccine life would be back to normal. It’s that simple. 

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11 hours ago, leedsvaliant said:


 

 


Great analysis! Why do people not look at this? You would never ever go into a bookies and bet on those odds! It is baffling to me why people are even remotely worried, genuinely why?

I'm personally much more concerned about any other form of dying than from Covid! Please can someone explain why there is such panic?

 

Are these percentages now or when the pandemic was at its worst before the vaccine? 
 

People are still worried because they can still die! Once again you both seems to be ignoring vulnerable and over 65s why is it ok to just forget about them? 
 

You know why the was a panic. Stop overplaying things. It was killing and was very dangerous a year ago and you know it was. I’m far more concerned of cancer that covid. Obviously. But cancer Dosent spread; covid does. That is why before these vaccine and when there were thousands dying daily, people panicked. 

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Just now, valiant_593 said:

 It was killing and was very dangerous a year ago 

Yes, I saw a chart recently that suggested the mortality rate for hospitalised patients was about 14% in March/April 2020 before we'd learned through those deaths and trial and error how to better treat it. 

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51 minutes ago, valiant_593 said:

No what this has shown is that measures taken back at the start of the pandemic have worked and have allowed us to get to some back of normality. Surely that’s the whole point. 

I think you've been taken in so much by the propaganda that you've completely forgotten what "normal" is.

Our definitions are worlds apart.

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1 hour ago, Doha said:

Without wanting to engage in a strawman

The most recent figures I could find regarding vaccine induced thromboembolism is 72 UK deaths. That was in a recent BBC report about that radio presenter who died. 

92,826,977 vaccines have so far been administered.

That’s a mortality rate of 7.75636591 to the power of minus 7. I can’t type the nomenclature superscript properly as I’m on a phone.

Based solely on UK figures, you are many thousands of times more likely to die from CV19 than any of the three approved vaccines.

You and LV are frequently at pains to suggest that 0.1269 is a microscopically small number.

Then how about 7.7 to the minus 7? That is literally several orders of magnitude lower.

So it follows that it appears quite illogical that the last few pages of this thread the usual suspects having a wobble over the concept of vaccination passports and mandatory rollouts for certain sectors like healthcare staff when the possibility of a negative event is such an improbability as to be negligible. Why is it ok for the CV19 IFR to be portrayed as extremely low but the many orders of magnitude lower vaccine side effect risk significant enough to be an issue? I’m not going to sit and work out comparisons with odds of other rare events as I’m on a phone without a proper scientific calculator so I’m likely to cock up working out the powers but I suspect you’re more likely to be attacked by an escaped Panther on Hamil Road later this afternoon than you are to suffer serious side effects from vaccination.

Again, not wanting to build a strawman but LV’s favourite word…context. 

 

But again, this isn't in context. You're the one building a strawman here as you won't answer any of my previous questions!

If 0.1269% of people die from COVID then why are we in this position where there are threats to take away freedom if you don't get the vaccine?

If you get the vaccine, that's fine, if you don't want to, that's also fine. Why is this so hard to understand?

Why are people that have had the vaccine so worried about people that haven't?

Everyone weighs up the risk/reward based on their own personal circumstances and comes to a decision. Why should anyone be forced to do anything they don't want to or risk losing their FREEDOM?

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44 minutes ago, valiant_593 said:

Are these percentages now or when the pandemic was at its worst before the vaccine? 
 

People are still worried because they can still die! Once again you both seems to be ignoring vulnerable and over 65s why is it ok to just forget about them? 
 

You know why the was a panic. Stop overplaying things. It was killing and was very dangerous a year ago and you know it was. I’m far more concerned of cancer that covid. Obviously. But cancer Dosent spread; covid does. That is why before these vaccine and when there were thousands dying daily, people panicked. 

These are from 2020 (before the vaccine).

"Once again you both seems to be ignoring vulnerable and over 65s why is it ok to just forget about them?"

Have you even read my post? Please read it again. I literally discuss this! 😂😂

People can die of all sorts though? Car crashes, cancer, lightning strikes, bee stings. Why aren't we running around panicking over these too?

Surely whether something spreads is irrelevant, compared to the death rate? The common cold spreads but there has never been mass hysteria or fear? Cancer is much much more likely to kill you than COVID, yet never gets discussed like COVID!

I honestly feel like I'm the odd one out here for wanting normality to return. Wow.

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50 minutes ago, valeparklife said:

These are from 2020 (before the vaccine).

"Once again you both seems to be ignoring vulnerable and over 65s why is it ok to just forget about them?"

Have you even read my post? Please read it again. I literally discuss this! 😂😂

People can die of all sorts though? Car crashes, cancer, lightning strikes, bee stings. Why aren't we running around panicking over these too?

Surely whether something spreads is irrelevant, compared to the death rate? The common cold spreads but there has never been mass hysteria or fear? Cancer is much much more likely to kill you than COVID, yet never gets discussed like COVID!

I honestly feel like I'm the odd one out here for wanting normality to return. Wow.

People can die of all sorts though? Car crashes, cancer, lightning strikes, bee stings. Why aren't we running around panicking over these too?

I have never caught a car crash, cancer, lightning strike or bee sting unknowingly from anyone stood next to me on the bus or in the shop

Surely whether something spreads is irrelevant, compared to the death rate? The common cold spreads but there has never been mass hysteria or fear? Cancer is much much more likely to kill you than COVID, yet never gets discussed like COVID!

is there any hope when this is the mindset?

 

I honestly feel like I'm the odd one out here for wanting normality to return. Wow.

Nothing like a bit of hyperbole 

 

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3 hours ago, WV said:

People can die of all sorts though? Car crashes, cancer, lightning strikes, bee stings. Why aren't we running around panicking over these too?

I have never caught a car crash, cancer, lightning strike or bee sting unknowingly from anyone stood next to me on the bus or in the shop

Surely whether something spreads is irrelevant, compared to the death rate? The common cold spreads but there has never been mass hysteria or fear? Cancer is much much more likely to kill you than COVID, yet never gets discussed like COVID!

is there any hope when this is the mindset?

 

I honestly feel like I'm the odd one out here for wanting normality to return. Wow.

Nothing like a bit of hyperbole 

 

Why are you more worried about the spread than the actual outcome? Makes no sense.

You must be petrified of the common cold, but couldn't care less if you got cancer?

Some absolutely bizarre statements appearing on here in the last few months. Highlights include: shooting dogs is acceptable to prevent COVID spread, lockdowns should continue indefinitely, the Government have spent money wisely during the pandemic, entire cities should be locked down for 1 case of COVID, the vaccine stops you catching COVID, the vaccine stops you spreading COVID, mask wearing should be mandatory everywhere, every person should be forced to take an experimental vaccine or lose their freedom, COVID is worse than cancer etc etc. I'm getting the feeling the majority of the population have actually lost their mind.

All I want is a return to normality!

Feeling like a break is needed from this forum!

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8 minutes ago, valeparklife said:

Why are you more worried about the spread than the actual outcome? Makes no sense.

You must be petrified of the common cold, but couldn't care less if you got cancer?

Some absolutely bizarre statements appearing on here in the last few months. Highlights include: shooting dogs is acceptable to prevent COVID spread, lockdowns should continue indefinitely, the Government have spent money wisely during the pandemic, entire cities should be locked down for 1 case of COVID, the vaccine stops you catching COVID, the vaccine stops you spreading COVID, mask wearing should be mandatory everywhere, every person should be forced to take an experimental vaccine or lose their freedom, COVID is worse than cancer etc etc. I'm getting the feeling the majority of the population have actually lost their mind.

All I want is a return to normality!

Feeling like a break is needed from this forum!

The common cold hasn't as far as I know killed 150,000 people in 18 months. The common cold isn't putting my vulnerable mother at risk of certain death. 

Some of the statements you list are crazy but I think some of the statements you and LV have made between you are equally as crazy! 

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4 minutes ago, WV said:

The common cold hasn't as far as I know killed 150,000 people in 18 months. The common cold isn't putting my vulnerable mother at risk of certain death. 

Some of the statements you list are crazy but I think some of the statements you and LV have made between you are equally as crazy! 

"Certain death". Wow. I give up.

Which statements have I made that are crazy?

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20 minutes ago, valeparklife said:

"Certain death". Wow. I give up.

Which statements have I made that are crazy?

When someone has terminal lung cancer I would say catching covid would be a certain death sentence. In fact it wasn't me who said it. If you disagree I suggest you go and talk to the oncologists who have as much to my mother. I did forget you did your own research though, sorry. Probably best you do give up on that point. 

Edited by WV

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1 minute ago, WV said:

When someone has terminal cancer I would say catching covid would be a certain death sentence. If you disagree I suggest you go and talk to the oncologists who have as much to my mother. I did forget you did your own research though, sorry. 

Well that wasn't what I thought you meant. There was no way I could have known that. No harm intended and I'm sorry to hear this. It just seemed like you thought anyone catching COVID meant certain death. I apologise my friend.

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29 minutes ago, valeparklife said:

Well that wasn't what I thought you meant. There was no way I could have known that. No harm intended and I'm sorry to hear this. It just seemed like you thought anyone catching COVID meant certain death. I apologise my friend.

Apology accepted. I havent had a sit down or chat with my mother for over 18 months now (she is deaf as well which doesn't help) so I would love some normality but I consider the risk very high in my situation. She has protected herself as people suggest the vulnerable do but how will we ever get to a point where I can be in the same room as her against? It doesn't feel like it and covid has stolen the last years of her life without her even having it. So I get frustrated with talk of losing freedom over being asked to wear a mask or covid passport when she will never have the freedom to even have a family dinner without serious risk. Sorry, rant over  

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I can understand your concern from a personal perspective and I think it's right to protect vulnerable and elderly people from any disease. I was always careful with my elderly grandmother if I got a cold.

I wonder whether it might help you to understand what her actual chances of infection/death is based on data? It may not be as risky as you perhaps perceive it? I don't like to get into personal situations but would it not be better for her to have her family around her? Particularly with her presumably being vaccinated. Even with her underlying health conditions, hasn't the vaccine massively reduced her chances of being ill?

Like I said, I can understand your point of view and predicament but perhaps the thought of the potential worst case scenario that you have in your head is less likely than the actual scenario. Equally, I have sympathy for your point of view and can understand your fears.

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Are these percentages now or when the pandemic was at its worst before the vaccine? 
 
People are still worried because they can still die! Once again you both seems to be ignoring vulnerable and over 65s why is it ok to just forget about them? 
 
You know why the was a panic. Stop overplaying things. It was killing and was very dangerous a year ago and you know it was. I’m far more concerned of cancer that covid. Obviously. But cancer Dosent spread; covid does. That is why before these vaccine and when there were thousands dying daily, people panicked. 
I agree, but was it on a scale that deserved such panic? Again, we gloss over the fact that the total number of deaths is likely to have been considerably overstated through highly sensitive testing and generalised diagnostics from doctors.

I have parents both over 65. Neither have ever worried in the slightest about the chances of catching and dying of Covid and neither have had the vaccine. Am I worried? No, not at all, because the chances of them being seriously ill or dying is so low.

I think this is the frustration from sceptics. It's like those who support all this just see death=bad and never truly understand the data or risk. They have just been programmed to see this as a highly risky thing to catch and no data or risk analysis will ever turn them away from that. Life is a risk, old people catch things and die. Particularly now we have a vaccine that protects over 95% against hospitalisations, we surely need to get rid of much of this theatre.
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