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12 minutes ago, bycars rob said:

The government are seemingly concentrating on antibody tests which just say if you have had the virus, so that you have immunity.

This won`t help a lot of people self isolating unnecessarily causing staff shortages.

I've now been tested 5 times in 3 countries. One of the problems is the test only comes up positive about the time you go symptomatic so you still have to isolate for 14 days because coming up negative means:

1 you've not currently got it 

Or

2. You have it but it's not advanced enough to detect but you are still infectious

So it only really works to confirm a sick person has covid 19. 

I'm in Qatar at the moment and doctors who live in the same compound are impressed the UK have this test and desperately want the local governments to buy it. It will at least give some clear indications to work from, which the current test doesn't.  I have been in contact with 3 people who developed covid 19. I may well have had it and be immune but they have to waste resources testing me every time I have been in infected areas or with infected people. Currently its been test then isolate for 14 days from contact then retest or medical examination. It also negates the argument for testing healthcare workers as if they are healthy from the test results it doesn't mean they don't have it; so the only advantage of doing it is likely to be psychological unless they are displaying symptoms. 

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On 24/03/2020 at 10:28, tommytunstall said:

Europe. All countries are making decisions independently.

Yeah you can make your own decisions but if you make one we don't like, we will fine you.

 

 

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19 hours ago, CambridgeDon said:

Just breaking - another piece of research, this time from Iceland where scientists say they have identified 40 different mutations of the Covid-19 (which is worrying for the prospects of developing a vaccine) and traced seven cases to the same English football match:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-seven-confirmed-cases-all-21747922

It would be interesting to know which one!

Must have been at the Britannia but I shouldn't say that.

Jeez 40 mutations sounds a lot but I guess that's what "RNA viruses" are capable of. There must have been a fairly recent mutation that enhanced SARS-Cov-19's transmission from animals to humans or perhaps  increased it's virulence in humans.

It may not be too problematic to find a vaccine that doesn't need to be repeatedly changed if an area of the viral genome can be found that is stable and doesn't mutate although experience with the Flu virus (An RNA virus) doesn't auger well.

IMHO The ideal solution to this problem would be to find currently marketed drugs that can be used immediately. Preferably drugs that work by preventing the virus gaining access into human cells and/or those that interfere with the human host cell machinery the virus hijacks to mutate, as mutations in the human genome are much, much rarer than those on an "RNA virus genome".

eg There are Angiotensin II antagonists available that block the Angiotensin II Receptor, the receptor on human cells that the SARS-Cov-19 virus uses to gain access to human cells, probably need a cocktail of drugs to prevent disease though.

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, toyahw said:

No. They usually mutate to be milder. No point just killing off your hosts pronto. This does not change anything in the near term. Long term it will probably end up being a standard circulating 'flu. But long term here means years. Not next week.

I am not a virologist note. But I do know a thing or two about viruses. Professionally. 

And have no axe to grind.

Viruses mutate for self preservation, to adapt to survive, the same as humans, animals and bacteria - Darwin's Evolutionary theory.

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7 hours ago, RailwayRowdy said:

Prince Charles confirmed to have contracted the virus. 

now if he can get it.......

 

Prince Charles is isolating at Balmoral with COVID-19
Prince Andrew is isolating at Windsor with Jennifer-14

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2 hours ago, Jacko51 said:

Prince Charles is isolating at Balmoral with COVID-19
Prince Andrew is isolating at Windsor with Jennifer-14

Jacko be careful you could be self isolating in the Tower!!

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5 hours ago, Paul6754 said:

Viruses mutate for self preservation, to adapt to survive, the same as humans, animals and bacteria - Darwin's Evolutionary theory.

Wrong. According to Darwin mutations are random, quite correctly as it turns out. The most successful ones win out in the end statistically. So no they do not mutate for self preservation. The more successful random mutations are  just more likely to survive longer and be more successful.

You sir, have been posting pseudo science on here for a while. I have stated my background on here. I suggest that you do to. And being a pen pusher in the industry does not count.

With all due respect.

 

 

Edited by toyahw
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8 hours ago, toyahw said:

Wrong. According to Darwin mutations are random, quite correctly as it turns out. The most successful ones win out in the end statistically. So no they do not mutate for self preservation. The more successful random mutations are  just more likely to survive longer and be more successful.

You sir, have been posting pseudo science on here for a while. I have stated my background on here. I suggest that you do to. And being a pen pusher in the industry does not count.

With all due respect.

 

 

My understanding is a virus with a high mortality rate is unlikely to be around for too long as it will kill the host quickly and limit its own spread to new hosts. Its the ability of this virus to spread, often with hosts displaying no symptoms or not until 14 days after infection, which make it so difficult to control. 

What was thought to be the flu virus was probably first recorded in Ancient Greece. It has certainly been around since the 16th Century. It shares many of the same traits as Covid 19. Whether Covid 19 has the same capaity to mutate to survive for the foreseeable future remains to be seen. Certainly some flu mutations over the last 500 years have been more deadly than others.

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It appears that a lot of the spread of the virus through Europe has come from the Apres ski mob in Austria, The game of beer pong at Kitzloch bar seems designed to spread any virus. 

The authorities behaved just like they did in Amity in Jaws and kept the resorts open despite the evidence.

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22 hours ago, JRC said:

I've now been tested 5 times in 3 countries. One of the problems is the test only comes up positive about the time you go symptomatic so you still have to isolate for 14 days because coming up negative means:

1 you've not currently got it 

Or

2. You have it but it's not advanced enough to detect but you are still infectious

So it only really works to confirm a sick person has covid 19. 

I'm in Qatar at the moment and doctors who live in the same compound are impressed the UK have this test and desperately want the local governments to buy it. It will at least give some clear indications to work from, which the current test doesn't.  I have been in contact with 3 people who developed covid 19. I may well have had it and be immune but they have to waste resources testing me every time I have been in infected areas or with infected people. Currently its been test then isolate for 14 days from contact then retest or medical examination. It also negates the argument for testing healthcare workers as if they are healthy from the test results it doesn't mean they don't have it; so the only advantage of doing it is likely to be psychological unless they are displaying symptoms. 

Our company is importing 500,000 kits a week into Australia which tells you if you have it, are still infectious, and have had had it but not infectious due to antibodies IgG and IgM. I work on other other products so do not know the full implications of the tests. We hope that people that are infectious that haven't yet developed symptoms will isolate.

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I had a hospital appointment yesterday Wed. rang Monday to see if it was still ok to go, it was, still a few people about and docs had masks and scrubs on, some nurses had masks on, I was speaking to one and she said they wer'nt really any good but it made her feel better. Also a doctor came to speak to a man waiting and said the consultant would be about 20mins late as she was being fitted for a mask...

Was speaking to a mate who works on the patients transport ambulances they hav'nt got any protective gear, and they carry 5-6 people on journeys...

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6 hours ago, bycars rob said:

It appears that a lot of the spread of the virus through Europe has come from the Apres ski mob in Austria, The game of beer pong at Kitzloch bar seems designed to spread any virus. 

The authorities behaved just like they did in Amity in Jaws and kept the resorts open despite the evidence.

Or it was the CL game between Atalanta and Valencia at the San Siro on February 19th which is another theory.

Italy's first confirmed case came four days later.Bergamo,in Lombardy is just 32 miles from Turin and is Italy's worst hit city with 7,000 cases and 1,200 deaths.The city went into lockdown four days after the game.

Italy and Spain now have around 70,000 infections between them and a death toll of over 10,000.

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16 hours ago, toyahw said:

Wrong. According to Darwin mutations are random, quite correctly as it turns out. The most successful ones win out in the end statistically. So no they do not mutate for self preservation. The more successful random mutations are  just more likely to survive longer and be more successful.

You sir, have been posting pseudo science on here for a while. I have stated my background on here. I suggest that you do to. And being a pen pusher in the industry does not count.

With all due respect.

 

 

Mutations are random but the very fact the genetic code of humans, animals, bacteria and viruses is subject to mutation is to enable survival, self preservation and/or to adapt to their environment to survive. Darwin described it as natural selection - Survival of the fittest.

You post, "They (Viruses) usually mutate to be milder",  absolutely nothing mutates to be milder, in your reply you're trying to walk back your incorrect statement.

Mutations occur naturally and randomly , they happen when the genetic code is miss-read.

This is the second time at least you've tried to infer your qualifications are superior and hence I/other people know nothing,  I'm a down to earth guy and take people as they are, I don't assume anything just reply to their posts,  I suggest you do to.

For the second time my qualifications are in organic chemistry and at least the same as you claim yours are.. I  trained as a Medicinal Chemist working in the Research Departments of several multi-national ethical pharmaceutical companies until I retired. The positions I've held range from bench chemist to lead chemist/project leader on various drug discovery projects in the fields of inflammation/immunology requiring a knowledge and understanding of many scientific disciplines and patent law in order to communicate with scientists from other disciplines although my main strengths are in chemistry.

I worked with molecular biologists who manipulate DNA and RNA every day for screening purposes.  The last company I worked for researched and developed one of the first human monoclonal antibodies to be approved as a drug to treat auto immune diseases but being on the small molecule side of the business  I had no involvement with that project whatsoever.

So I'm as far away from a pen pusher as possible whereas you claim to be a Molecular Modeler which is as close to pen pushing as possible in the scientific world as no one uses pens anymore in case you haven't noticed.

As for psuedo science your reply is simply incorrect and you know it hence the spin and narcissism.  I'm still waiting for you to post or reference the graph you quoted on the Extinction Rebellion thread which you claim shows a 100% correlation between CO2 levels and global warming. I guess I'll be waiting for ever 'cause there are none, pseudo science/fake news indeed.

 

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Quite a jump today in the UK. Over 100 sadly died.  

12 confirmed cases in Stoke and worries over an outbreak at a care home in Bradwell. Almost 100 cases in the rest of the county.

Terribly sad news - not just here but from all over the world. It's easy to become matter of fact when such high numbers exist in so many places worldwide. You wonder what on earth will happen if it spreads quickly to some of the countries in Asia and Africa who have far less well developed health systems and economies. It's tragic. And for how long?

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7 minutes ago, TheSage said:

Quite a jump today in the UK. Over 100 sadly died.  

12 confirmed cases in Stoke and worries over an outbreak at a care home in Bradwell. Almost 100 cases in the rest of the county.

Terribly sad news - not just here but from all over the world. It's easy to become matter of fact when such high numbers exist in so many places worldwide. You wonder what on earth will happen if it spreads quickly to some of the countries in Asia and Africa who have far less well developed health systems and economies. It's tragic. And for how long?

The announcement time has been changed, today was longer than usual, Wednesday was shorter hence its drop in increase from Tuesday. So Friday`s figure will revert to a 24 hour total/increase.

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Just a heads up, if you get an email from the Department for Health saying not to eat tinned pork because it contains Covid-19 ignore it. It’s spam.

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I see we have no joined in with the European joint procurement effort for ventilators after the government missed out on the previous 3 orders saying they missed the e-mail. What a shambles.

I thought we had ordered 10k of these off tory donor ,brexiteer dyson although we haven`t even tested them.

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7 hours ago, Paul6754 said:

Mutations are random but the very fact the genetic code of humans, animals, bacteria and viruses is subject to mutation is to enable survival, self preservation and/or to adapt to their environment to survive. Darwin described it as natural selection - Survival of the fittest.

 

I think the Toyah's issue is that the way you are wording your messages seems to imply there is some kind of sentience or design to natural processes. Like with the paragraph I quoted here.

I didn't read your original post to mean viruses were purposefully mutating in order to survive, but one could read it that way.

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