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1 minute ago, ginge said:

R rate close to 1 again. Worrying as it was 0.4 in London a few weeks ago and now back up to 0.95. 

20200605_161600.jpg

I'm not surprised at London's figures, especially after the demonstrations, Liverpool and Manchester can't have helped the North West's case either.

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3 minutes ago, Mario said:

I'm not surprised at London's figures, especially after the demonstrations, Liverpool and Manchester can't have helped the North West's case either.

Id imagine the stat was done before the protests but they wont have helped. But im sure releasing the lockdown measures wont have helped things either.

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15 minutes ago, ginge said:

Id imagine the stat was done before the protests but they wont have helped. But im sure releasing the lockdown measures wont have helped things either.

2 week lag in the R figures.

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1 minute ago, Iron Curtain said:

I'm not 100% sure of this, but I think the R rate bounces around quite a lot when the number of new cases is low... something to do with a low denominator. London is very very low on new cases so that COULD be the reason.

 

New estimate of cases has now dropped from 8k to 5k+.

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3 minutes ago, ginge said:

Id imagine the stat was done before the protests but they wont have helped. But im sure releasing the lockdown measures wont have helped things either.

I would have held on for another two weeks, theres going to be a price to pay for all those on the beaches and out in the countryside last week end lets just hope it's not too bad. 

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6 minutes ago, Mario said:

I would have held on for another two weeks, theres going to be a price to pay for all those on the beaches and out in the countryside last week end lets just hope it's not too bad. 

The ending of lockdown, the ridiculous scenes at beaches, the protests (as much as I support the cause) are all making me very nervous right now. 

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5 minutes ago, Andyregs said:

The ending of lockdown, the ridiculous scenes at beaches, the protests (as much as I support the cause) are all making me very nervous right now. 

Could not agree more.

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I agree with you both, 100%.

That was my feeling. A couple more weeks of strict lock-down. To get the numbers down more.

But if some figures are two weeks behind then it won't yet show the consequences of demonstrations, lifting measures and the Cummings factor.

It is very good to see the numbers in hospital falling but the other indicators are very concerning.

ONS does show falling cases but the Cambridge Univ data points to 17,000 new weekly cases, so what's going on? They are normally more or less in agreement.

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/

Above all, of course, we have seen another 350 odd deaths today and that's still a frightening and very sad tally. 

Even on the government's figures we're now passed 40,000. 

This really is a very dangerous time. The next few days are crucial.

 

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31 minutes ago, Jacko51 said:

Does the fairly rapidly reducing number of those in hospital with the virus suggest that it may be weakening or is that just wishful thinking?

As Sage says I think we are entering a dangerous phase, it is very difficult to know what to believe but the R figure is rising in certain areas.  Added to that we have the George Floyd protests, The beaches at the weekend and the Cummings effect. Plus we have more dilly dallying with masks etc, when is the Track and Trace going to be ready.  What will come first Track and Trace, or Trick or Treat??

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Close the beaches in the NW and SW.Police and Stewards marshalling them. Open them up when R drops.Give local councils the power to do it.It seems that’s  where most  people are heading.As for protesting,let’s hope they are over.I was staggered to see the amount of more vulnerable people gathered together like that after calling for inquiries and asking what’s going to be done about it.Virus Hotspots are getting monitored by a team in Leeds.

 

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1 hour ago, Jacko51 said:

Does the fairly rapidly reducing number of those in hospital with the virus suggest that it may be weakening or is that just wishful thinking?

Lockdown,social distancing by most people etc  and a careful easing appears to be working.No proof that the virus is weakening as far as i’m aware.

Edited by Howjy04

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1 hour ago, tommytunstall said:

As Sage says I think we are entering a dangerous phase, it is very difficult to know what to believe but the R figure is rising in certain areas.  Added to that we have the George Floyd protests, The beaches at the weekend and the Cummings effect. Plus we have more dilly dallying with masks etc, when is the Track and Trace going to be ready.  What will come first Track and Trace, or Trick or Treat??

The Track and Trace is working Tommy ,thousands are getting traced.The Worldie is due later.I thought you would have been consulted on it Track and Trace Tommy Tunstall.😉

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1 hour ago, tommytunstall said:

As Sage says I think we are entering a dangerous phase, it is very difficult to know what to believe but the R figure is rising in certain areas.  Added to that we have the George Floyd protests, The beaches at the weekend and the Cummings effect. Plus we have more dilly dallying with masks etc, when is the Track and Trace going to be ready.  What will come first Track and Trace, or Trick or Treat??

I know it’s your baby TTTT but ask yourself the question,how many people have got within less than 6ft of you for 15 mins that you don’t live with? That  will be the case for the majority of the country I’d suggest.I hope you haven’t been ......... I have had that near contact with 2 people,both live with me.I’m not expecting a text message anytime soon.

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