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1 hour ago, Joe B said:

 

So, not only did we fail to stop excess deaths initially, we also allowed COVID to spread across the country where Italy managed to larged avoid certain areas.

Could that be because we allowed symptomatic people from hotspots like London to travel to fairly clear areas like the North East?

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I believe that in Rome there were no excess deaths. In fact the death rate declined... So yes it seems that regional lock downs worked. On the other hand, would that work in the UK. Isolating London, or Manchester, or Stoke for that matter?

If you read the SAGE minutes they were factoring in social factors right from the start. Probably too much for my liking.  Behavioural science is junk science in an unknown scenario.

This is not any kind of pro/anti government thing. Just I don't think SAGE have played a blinder here. If you have time, read the minutes of the early meetings. It is quite instructive as to what duff advice was being given.

Edited by toyahw

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49 minutes ago, Nofinikea said:

you really need to stop this league of death crusade, it's not good.

If you could expand, clearly, on what you mean by this, that would be much appreciated.

All I've done is copy and paste some statistics from the Financial Times - the only opinion I've presented is that there should be an inquiry, which you agree.

Which part of me posting statistics from a national newspaper is a 'league of death crusade', which 'isn't good'?

Thanks.

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Alright, let's try and break this mess down.

1 hour ago, Nofinikea said:

Look, I arent saying you are wrong but it's not a fact that we would have similar numbers to other countries, it's just your opinion based on the data you have seen.  However, I will remind you one last time and then leave it, that data is not telling the full story is it.  I have already pointed out that without accurate infection rates the death rates dont really tell us everything and we do not know the state of everything everywhere else going into it, health, infrastructure etc...  only when you factor all the variables, many of which I have not mentioned, is the comparison exercise you are hell bent on hammering, worth looking at.

All I've done is presented facts. We've got the worst excess death rate per capita of the data-reliable nations. If you are somehow implying that the UK's healthcare and infrastructure put it at a disadvantage compared to Italy, Spain, Peru, Netherlands etc then you're not quite at one with reality. How bad does it have to get until you stop making excuses about variables? First it was population density people used; Germany put rest to that.

Please list the specific variables that make Britain so different than the 18 other countries, and would reasonably explain the discrepancy in excess deaths.

1 hour ago, Nofinikea said:

Much the same as comparing the excess deaths to this time last year and declaring it's on the decline...  the weather this year has been much warmer than normal and so other seasonal deaths may not have occurred meaning that this 2000 figure I have seen banded about could actually be alot more...  again it's a stat that doesnt really tell us what we need to know because the variables have not been applied.

This paragraph is devoid of structure, logic, and sense. I have literally no idea what your point it. Excess deaths are how many more people have died in comparison to the 5 year average of this period. So, for example, if you take the number of deaths we had from March-May in 2015, 16, 17, 18, and 19, work out an average, and then subtract the number of deaths from the same period in 2020, you get your excess death rate. It shows that more people are dying than usual. I have absolutely no idea what your temperature argument is on about mate, genuinely.

1 hour ago, Nofinikea said:

You seem to be arguing with yourself though.  I dont see anybody suggesting that we are doing well, or better or any of those things.

Go back on this very thread.

1 hour ago, Nofinikea said:

Why do you keep insisting on pushing this like you do?   Is it because more deaths prove your point about our government?  If so, that's not very good.

Good effort, mate, you thought this was an easy win. I'm largely apolitical, have no real love for any of the main parties. I disliked Corbyn, haven't formed much on an opinion on Starmer, and dislike Johnson. There's no political gain here; just want full justice done when this process is over via an inquiry into why our deaths are higher than others.

If its because of these unnamed 'variables' you're unable to specify, fine, but you seem to have a real issue with me copy and pasting facts from the Financial Times, whilst engaging in conspiracy theories that Germany are cooking the numbers.

Edited by Joe B

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33 minutes ago, toyahw said:

I believe that in Rome there were no excess deaths. In fact the death rate declined... So yes it seems that regional lock downs worked. On the other hand, would that work in the UK. Isolating London, or Manchester, or Stoke for that matter?

If you read the SAGE minutes they were factoring in social factors right from the start. Probably too much for my liking.  Behavioural science is junk science in an unknown scenario.

This is not any kind of pro/anti government thing. Just I don't think SAGE have played a blinder here. If you have time, read the minutes of the early meetings. It is quite instructive as to what duff advice was being given.

Unfortunately things have become so aggressively tribal in terms of politics that EVERY comment is viewed through the left-right spectrum.

You can't criticise this government's handling of COVID without trying to score political points against them. Its really bizarre.

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23 minutes ago, Joe B said:

Alright, let's try and break this mess down.

All I've done is presented facts. We've got the worst excess death rate per capita of the data-reliable nations. If you are somehow implying that the UK's healthcare and infrastructure put it at a disadvantage compared to Italy, Spain, Peru, Netherlands etc then you're not quite at one with reality. How bad does it have to get until you stop making excuses about variables? First it was population density people used; Germany put rest to that.

Please list the specific variables that make Britain so different than the 18 other countries, and would reasonably explain the discrepancy in excess deaths.

This paragraph is devoid of structure, logic, and sense. I have literally no idea what your point it. Excess deaths are how many more people have died in comparison to the 5 year average of this period. So, for example, if you take the number of deaths we had from March-May in 2015, 16, 17, 18, and 19, work out an average, and then subtract the number of deaths from the same period in 2020, you get your excess death rate. It shows that more people are dying than usual. I have absolutely no idea what your temperature argument is on about mate, genuinely.

Go back on this very thread.

Good effort, mate, you thought this was an easy win. I'm largely apolitical, have no real love for any of the main parties. I disliked Corbyn, haven't formed much on an opinion on Starmer, and dislike Johnson. There's no political gain here; just want full justice done when this process is over via an inquiry into why our deaths are higher than others.

If its because of these unnamed 'variables' you're unable to specify, fine, but you seem to have a real issue with me copy and pasting facts from the Financial Times, whilst engaging in conspiracy theories that Germany are cooking the numbers.

I think we have a winner in this particular  tête-à-tête

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7 minutes ago, Howjy04 said:

That’s good news.Spain went into lockdown just one week before us.

Last week / the week before the number of deaths there have been in double figures or not much higher than 100 on odd days.

I still think we've got a fair way to go.

 

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1 hour ago, Jacko51 said:

Could that be because we allowed symptomatic people from hotspots like London to travel to fairly clear areas like the North East?

No.I think it was the South Wales to London birthday  round trip by someone who wouldn’t have known if they were asymptomatic or not.

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2 minutes ago, Howjy04 said:

No.I think it was the South Wales to London birthday  round trip by someone who wouldn’t have known if they were asymptomatic or not.

Why no? Surely both trips are wrong?

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15 minutes ago, Santa said:

Last week / the week before the number of deaths there have been in double figures or not much higher than 100 on odd days.

I still think we've got a fair way to go.

 

Probably so Santa but Spain started relaxing restrictions over a month ago when the death toll was over 500.

Edited by Howjy04

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1 minute ago, Nofinikea said:

 

I haven't said Germany are cooking the numbers but you seem to be holding anyone and everyone as better than us.  Its bizarre how you dont understand the arguments.  It was quite straight forward really and considering you were so adamant that people are refusing to meet the issues head on, you arent half dancing around your handbag.

I'm holding countries with lower excess deaths per capita as countries who probably handled the crisis better, yes.

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19 minutes ago, Howjy04 said:

Probably so Santa but Spain started relaxing restrictions over a month ago when the death toll was over 500.

They did but only very lightly, some areas of the country moved from phase 0 to phase 1 on May 11th, things like exercise were permitted but restricted to certain age groups at certain times.

Some parts of Madrid, Castilla y Léon, and certain bits of Cataluña have only just moved to phase 1 (orange) yesterday.

Three of the Canary Islands and one of the Balearics have moved into phase 3 (the ones in green).

fase4-escritorio.jpg?v=9995

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10 minutes ago, Santa said:

They did but only very lightly, some areas of the country moved from phase 0 to phase 1 on May 11th, things like exercise were permitted but restricted to certain age groups at certain times.

Some parts of Madrid, Castilla y Léon, and certain bits of Cataluña have only just moved to phase 1 (orange) yesterday.

Three of the Canary Islands and one of the Balearics have moved into phase 3 (the ones in green).

fase4-escritorio.jpg?v=9995

We could certainly adopt that regional  policy if needed.(re-lockdown)I think London will be the yardstick for us.

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