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35 minutes ago, Nofinikea said:

I am sure all of those measures would have had some impact, but you quoted various other figures to show ours to be bad and then go on to say they are all not to be trusted so I think we are done.

It's a simple comparison between 2 countries with similar populations.

I use the same yardstick to gauge government statistics.

You make of the official figures what you will.

Don't you think the UK figures are bad?

The point of the comparison was to highlight the different aproaches to a similar situation and the effects the differing aproaches may have had on the outcome. 

There is nothing to be done with.

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2 hours ago, Howjy04 said:

Ours is bad ,IC.I read something the other day where a German scientist reckoned Germany has had at least 10 times as many cases as reported.1,800,000 as opposed to 180,000.Not sure if we are at that level?I check Worldometer for figures,normally.Some of the figures given by Governments I’d say are slightly dubious.Ive always said we are too honest for our own good.Who would want to win the European championship at this ?

You got a link to that scientist Howj? I would be genuinely interested in reading it.

For me I acknowledge that "Deaths caused by Caronavirus" can not possibly being recorded in the exact same way in all countries.

Cases is also hard as more testing = more cases, and given most people tested are the ones suspected of having Covid mean its hard to get a per capita figure.

But excess deaths should be a relatively normalised, hence why the FT started tracking it a while ago.... the only way that can be impacted is if they are not recording deaths at all.... I'm not 100% sure but isn't there a time limit within which someone has to do that.  

I cant Germany purposefully only allowing a certain number of deaths to be registered to provide a small excess number... that would be a logistical and administrative nightmare, and completely counter productive to the health and safety of the nation.... "Don't tell them about the deaths"... not likely.

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Sadly, we are increasingly regarded by the rest of the world as the basket case of Europe. 

Our handling of this crisis has made us look stupid as well as showing up our government as a dishonest rabble.

I note that Cummings cardboard cut outs have been seen at Australian rugby matches and in German stadiums, along with the likes of photographs of owners' pets and Harold Shipman.

I think the global community have progressed from being amazed at our incompetence to showing us pity and sadness. But now they're laughing at us. It's that bad.

 

 

 

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Prof Neil Ferguson says genetic analysis says most strains of coronavirus in the UK originated in Spain or Italy. He says many thousands of infected people come into the country in February and early March. That helps to explain why death figures ended up being higher than hoped, he says.

Allowing the Athletico game to go ahead - Mistake

Not imposing quarantine - Mistake

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1 hour ago, Nofinikea said:

Oh, I am sorry.  It's just with you being critical of GBs morals and honesty throughout history, that's what we were judging morals and honesty by.  What specific events in our history were you referring to that are more relevant than events in German history?

This is what you said...

"I also think its a very dangerous game to assume that we, Great Britain, bastion of good morals and honesty throughout our history, are the only ones being truthful. We're no morally superior to any other nation."

 

Different points.

It was suggested that we are more truthful than our neighbours, as if we hold some higher moral value to reporting the truth. I suggested, and the case has been proven in the last few weeks, that our government clearly holds no higher moral/truthful values. By using the term 'history' I insinuated a connection with older issues, which was not my intention, though I clearly see how it could be read like so.

I think to try and link the Nazis/failures of the 1930s + 40s to Germany allegedly underreporting COVID cases is a tad different, mind, to my point that it is silly to assume the UK are on a higher moral standing compared to other nations, when we're clearly no better than anyone else, which history proves.

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Again, the debate gets dragged down in petty pedantry to avoid the clear, obvious main point.

England has the highest excess deaths per capita of the 19 countries with reliable data, despite us witnessing for weeks what damage COVID could cause in other nations. Is China worse? Probably. Have Germany used different metrics? Maybe. Are more people dying in this country, proportionally, than usual compared to other countries? Undoubtedly yes.

To avoid confronting this issue head on, we get bogged down in interpretations of certain words and complete side issues, circular arguments where neither side is quite sure as to what their point is anymore.

I'm just keen to repeat that the UK government has not handled this issue well at all, and an independent enquiry is needed to ascertain WHY our death rate is higher than others. Who made the decisions? What evidence was used? When were decisions made? What pressure groups were involved?

Edited by Joe B
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1 hour ago, Nofinikea said:

Like I said we are done here because you simply twist and wiggle to try and make your none points.  You have offered nothing to the discussion so I dont wish to waste any more of my time on you.

Ooohhhhhhhhhh

Then stop replying.

I'm not twisting anything, the stats are the stats, both official stats I might add. How you wish to interpret them is up to you.

I offered the official statistics to the thread, I suggested that if action in the UK  had been taken earlier the figures may have been different.  I offered the major differences in the approaches taken by the respective governments. Your conclusions are your own.

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1 hour ago, Iron Curtain said:

You got a link to that scientist Howj? I would be genuinely interested in reading it.

For me I acknowledge that "Deaths caused by Caronavirus" can not possibly being recorded in the exact same way in all countries.

Cases is also hard as more testing = more cases, and given most people tested are the ones suspected of having Covid mean its hard to get a per capita figure.

But excess deaths should be a relatively normalised, hence why the FT started tracking it a while ago.... the only way that can be impacted is if they are not recording deaths at all.... I'm not 100% sure but isn't there a time limit within which someone has to do that.  

I cant Germany purposefully only allowing a certain number of deaths to be registered to provide a small excess number... that would be a logistical and administrative nightmare, and completely counter productive to the health and safety of the nation.... "Don't tell them about the deaths"... not likely.

If you google it IC,something like Germany 10 times more cases than reported you will get a host of articles on it including our own papers,Guardian,Mail etc.Plus i’m **** at links.

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1 hour ago, Iron Curtain said:

Prof Neil Ferguson says genetic analysis says most strains of coronavirus in the UK originated in Spain or Italy. He says many thousands of infected people come into the country in February and early March. That helps to explain why death figures ended up being higher than hoped, he says.

Allowing the Athletico game to go ahead - Mistake

Not imposing quarantine - Mistake

Shafting someone else’s wife- Mistake.

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1 hour ago, Howjy04 said:

If you google it IC,something like Germany 10 times more cases than reported you will get a host of articles on it including our own papers,Guardian,Mail etc.Plus i’m **** at links.

Found it, its an interesting read... The point on that is they have done an extrapolation based on a sample which s a very reasonable approach.

The bit that's missing is that you would also need to do the same to the UK... the German Scientist is saying that cases are higher because they are not testing enough people and there a load of people who have it who never show symptoms. The whole point of his analysis is that LOADS of people will have cases that are never tested. That is also true in the UK. In fact extrapolating their findings over the UK would give 12MILLION cases.

And of course they are only talking about cases not deaths.

The excess deaths is the thing that normalises all this.... and we are doing rather terribly on that metric.

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4 hours ago, Iron Curtain said:

@Regal Beagle Do you believe that public figures should be held to the highest accountable level when it comes to following their own policy? I acknowledge they shouldn't be treated differently in law. I'm talking here about their job, not their freedom.

Yeah I do but with a caveat of proprotionality and due process.

 

 

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UK with the worst excess death rate per capita up to May 22nd of the countries with reliable data.

Image

Region by region in the UK:

Image

I don't know how much more the debate can go on; the manner in which we locked down, especially the rate in which it was enacted, was rife with mistakes, or we'd have similar numbers to the other countries. Ours is THE worst.

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What is also interesting, is that the next-worst hit European country (Italy) didn't have such an even spread of excess deaths; a lot of it was contained to Lombardy. Some areas in the South barely registered excess deaths.

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The population density differs from 209/km2 for Italy to 259/km2 for UK; not enough of a discrepency to explain the more widespread transmission.

So, not only did we fail to stop excess deaths initially, we also allowed COVID to spread across the country where Italy managed to larged avoid certain areas.

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France - only Paris and Grand Est saw excess deaths increase by over 50%

Spain - 6/19 regions saw excess deaths increase by over 50%

Italy - Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Trentino-Alta Adige saw excess deaths increase by over 50%...

UK - 9/12 regions see excess deaths increase by over 50% (NI, Wales, and the South West do not, with the lowest being 37%. Every other country had at least 3 regions with ZERO% increase.

 

So, to conclude

1. UK has the worst excess death rate per capita of the 19 countries with reliable data

2. UK was the worst European country and preventing geographic, widespread transmission of COVID, with all regions seeing at least a 37% increase in excess deaths (and 9/12 regions at least 50%), when no other country had any more than 6/19 regions with an increase over 50%, with France and Italy only have a 2 or 3 region increase of that scale.

An independent inquiry is needed.

Edited by Joe B
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