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Match Thread: Forest Green Rovers v Port Vale


Fosse69

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30 minutes ago, Rampant Zebra said:

https://www.fgr.co.uk/news/february-2020/fgr-live-port-vale-h2 oops, wrong link, match is supposedly available free if you register

I think it's still the same iFollow service in that it says "UK fans will be able to purchase mid-week games only" (i.e. it's not free)

Personally if you're like me and can't get to midweek games due to work, it may be better for Vale if you purchased an iFollow video pass from the Vale website (as I presume they won't get a cut if you do it via FGR).

You can do it on the Vale site for a tenner through this link - https://www.port-vale.co.uk/my-account/?register=true&sku=GMATCH6D&id=18784&eid=1065283&redirect=https://www.port-vale.co.uk/matches/fixtures/

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For those of a statistics inclination like myself, FGR's recent form is not a blip but merely a regression to the mean after getting very lucky all season. This graph shows the difference: overachievement early season, and now underachievement. Simply laws of averages (happy to post ours if anyone cares; its basically the opposite - underachievement first half of the season and now overachievement).

2020-02-09-forest-green.png?w=998&h=

However, there performances have dramatically improved recently; it just so happens their results have plummeted concurrently. They're playing well and losing, after playing poor and winning.

A draw would be great; if Swindon beat Northampton and improved Grimbsy can avoid defeat at Colchester, it sets up Saturday to be very tasty.

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No one asked, and no one cares, and these models are horrendously, deeply flawed but this is ours. Basically measures what your Goal Difference is averaged out over 10 games and compares it to what the model expects your GD to be based on the quality of your chances created and conceded. If your GD is higher, the graph goes blue, and if the model's expected GD is higher, the graph goes red.

We're actually performing significantly worse than earlier in the season, but are now picking/grinding out points when previously we weren't getting the returns our work deserved. Again, laws of averages. All balances out. You can only be lucky/unlucky for so long before chance/fortune cast their spell.

2020-02-09-port-vale.png?w=860&h=430

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Smith, Atkinson, Oyeleke, Bennett, Cullen... The quality we have on our bench now is ridiculous (in a good way) compared to the last 5 years or so. And it will only be stronger when we have the likes of Taylor and Amoo back too.

With everyone fit and available our strongest bench might read something like Maddison, Brisley, Clark, Burgess, Conlon, Bennett and Cullen. It's a testement to the job Askey is doing so far.

 

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Problem FGR have had is not many goals in their team so earlier season they were grinding results out but seems to be a case of conceding more now and it’s caught up with them.

That said we’ve only got a couple more than them!

Big game... win tonight could be pivotal in setting us up for a real thrust at the top 7.

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