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Beyond Brexit - A new dawn? A leap of faith?


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19 hours ago, Paul6754 said:

In 2018, UK Exports to the EU were £291 billion (45% of all UK Exports). UK Imports from the EU were £357 billion (53% of all UK Imports)

In 2016, about 8% of the total of all the  EU's goods and services exports went to the UK.

Who needs who the most, well if I got in that fight I know which side of the fence I'd rather be on and it ain't the UK's.

I've pointed this out to a few quitlings. They've all diligently refused to understand it.

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5 hours ago, hillmanhunter said:

I've pointed this out to a few quitlings. They've all diligently refused to understand it.

What about LITERALLY THE REST OF THE WORLD? do you have any stats on that?

 

Let's not accuse brexiteers of refusing to understand things when that is pretty much the bread and butter tactic of remainers.

 

 

 

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On 17/02/2020 at 13:31, Regal Beagle said:

We will see Paul. That trade isnt going to disappear.

Hopefully the trade won't disappear and everything works out just fine and dandy for both sides but clearly the leverage is on the EU's side and the EU know it. The eating starts soon so we'll know what the pudding tastes like.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51549662

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1 minute ago, Paul6754 said:

Hopefully the trade won't disappear and everything works out just fine and dandy for both sides but clearly the leverage is on the EU's side and the EU know it. The eating starts soon so we'll know what the pudding tastes like.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51549662

Clearly?

 

Forgive me for not trusting remainer predictions given your collective record so far. 

We can sign free trade deals with economies worth up to 10 times the EU.

We can do it quicker than the EU and we can undercut the EU.

They are the ones with an immediate and substantial hole in their budget, not us. And there are plenty of European politicians poised to strike at the first sign of a successful brexit.

 

The EU is in trouble. Make no mistake about that. 

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12 hours ago, Regal Beagle said:

Clearly?

 

Forgive me for not trusting remainer predictions given your collective record so far. 

We can sign free trade deals with economies worth up to 10 times the EU.

We can do it quicker than the EU and we can undercut the EU.

They are the ones with an immediate and substantial hole in their budget, not us. And there are plenty of European politicians poised to strike at the first sign of a successful brexit.

 

The EU is in trouble. Make no mistake about that. 

So far, we have 20 trade deals in place which will kick in at the start of the transition period, which will of 8% of the current levels of UK trade (these are with countries such as Kosovo, the Faroe Islands, and Chile) (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842).

We currently have the freedom to strike new trade deals, and this is the sum of our efforts.

Also; The EU had a GDP of $18.7 trillion in 2019, which was 2nd behind the US which has $21.4 trillion. Now, forgive me my maths, but I fail to see which economies are '10x larger' than the EU, considering it is the 2nd largest and only $2.7 trillion behind the largest. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))

Could you elaborate on which economies you were referring to?

The concept that a successful Brexit is going to lead to some form of political anti-EU movement across the continent is also a nonsense - every single EU member state has seen an upsurge in support for the EU since we voted to leave, and all bar Czech Republic hold over 70% approval ratings (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-eu-survey-italy-ireland-portugal-eurosceptic-poll-a8888126.html)

Could you explain which European politicians are ready to pounce?

We are the ones who currently, should a FTA not be struck, face tariffs on 49% of our total trade at 2018 levels (45% of our exports, 53% of our imports).

I simply can't rationalise, when all emotion is taken out of it, how it can be spun that the EU find themselves in trouble in this situation, and not us. Half our trade goes to the EU.

I have made my peace with Brexit and no longer have any issues with its implementations, but unfortunately that does not give Brexit voters license to post several factual inaccuracies and for it to be passed off as fact.

 

 

Edited by Joe B
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For the record; I think the EU is deeply flawed. I dislike many aspects of it and have never been a massive remainer.

To post that somehow we, we a GDP 1/10th of the size of the EU, and relying on them for 50% of trade, somehow hold the trump card in this negotiation, is farcical.

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UK exports to the EU accounts for 8% our of GDP. UK imports account for 2.3% of the EU27's GDP.

Main players - Germany, 2.6%, France 1.4%.

So whilst we do have a trade deficit to the tune of £67bn, we have a much larger risk due to the size of our economy being 10x smaller. The damage from tarriffs is going to be nearly 4x as large to the UK's GDP as it will be to a EU country, even those with increased exposure to our market.

Your worst case are the likes of the Netherlands (5.3%) and Ireland (5%).

The EU will undoubtedly want a deal, as they will take a hit. However, we have more on the line.

Edited by Joe B

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2 minutes ago, Davebrad said:

I've just read the last few posts about the eu trade, one simple question, a serious one, why are they making such a fuss over "a level playing field"... if they are that big, and we are so small.

Because when you're that big you can set the rules. What's the point in having clout if you're not prepared to use it?

I'm sure we'll be fine. Even though Joe B's posts don't include the service industry where we're at a surplus with the EU.

We can all eat fish.

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10 hours ago, Joe B said:

So far, we have 20 trade deals in place which will kick in at the start of the transition period, which will of 8% of the current levels of UK trade (these are with countries such as Kosovo, the Faroe Islands, and Chile) (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842).

We currently have the freedom to strike new trade deals, and this is the sum of our efforts.

Also; The EU had a GDP of $18.7 trillion in 2019, which was 2nd behind the US which has $21.4 trillion. Now, forgive me my maths, but I fail to see which economies are '10x larger' than the EU, considering it is the 2nd largest and only $2.7 trillion behind the largest. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))

Could you elaborate on which economies you were referring to?

The concept that a successful Brexit is going to lead to some form of political anti-EU movement across the continent is also a nonsense - every single EU member state has seen an upsurge in support for the EU since we voted to leave, and all bar Czech Republic hold over 70% approval ratings (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-eu-survey-italy-ireland-portugal-eurosceptic-poll-a8888126.html)

Could you explain which European politicians are ready to pounce?

We are the ones who currently, should a FTA not be struck, face tariffs on 49% of our total trade at 2018 levels (45% of our exports, 53% of our imports).

I simply can't rationalise, when all emotion is taken out of it, how it can be spun that the EU find themselves in trouble in this situation, and not us. Half our trade goes to the EU.

I have made my peace with Brexit and no longer have any issues with its implementations, but unfortunately that does not give Brexit voters license to post several factual inaccuracies and for it to be passed off as fact.

 

 

Happy to provide the evidence but it will likely be tomorrow now.

To be clear I meant the ROW combined, not any individual country being 10x greater. 

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10 hours ago, Joe B said:

UK exports to the EU accounts for 8% our of GDP. UK imports account for 2.3% of the EU27's GDP.

Main players - Germany, 2.6%, France 1.4%.

So whilst we do have a trade deficit to the tune of £67bn, we have a much larger risk due to the size of our economy being 10x smaller. The damage from tarriffs is going to be nearly 4x as large to the UK's GDP as it will be to a EU country, even those with increased exposure to our market.

Your worst case are the likes of the Netherlands (5.3%) and Ireland (5%).

The EU will undoubtedly want a deal, as they will take a hit. However, we have more on the line.

We have options that the EU does not have.

 

Why else are they absolutely desperate to control our laws even now that we <ovf censored> them off?

Barnier has alluded to the fact that we are a risk to them because of our geographical proximity.

 

The only people who think that the eu wont be massively affected are UK remainers. The EU is in panic, the world is queuing up to trade with us.

 

We have 2 trump cards:

-the ability to strike trade deals with up to 100% of nations now

-regulatory alignment being out of the question.

 

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10 hours ago, Joe B said:

So far, we have 20 trade deals in place which will kick in at the start of the transition period, which will of 8% of the current levels of UK trade (these are with countries such as Kosovo, the Faroe Islands, and Chile) (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842).

We currently have the freedom to strike new trade deals, and this is the sum of our efforts.

Also; The EU had a GDP of $18.7 trillion in 2019, which was 2nd behind the US which has $21.4 trillion. Now, forgive me my maths, but I fail to see which economies are '10x larger' than the EU, considering it is the 2nd largest and only $2.7 trillion behind the largest. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))

Could you elaborate on which economies you were referring to?

The concept that a successful Brexit is going to lead to some form of political anti-EU movement across the continent is also a nonsense - every single EU member state has seen an upsurge in support for the EU since we voted to leave, and all bar Czech Republic hold over 70% approval ratings (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-eu-survey-italy-ireland-portugal-eurosceptic-poll-a8888126.html)

Could you explain which European politicians are ready to pounce?

We are the ones who currently, should a FTA not be struck, face tariffs on 49% of our total trade at 2018 levels (45% of our exports, 53% of our imports).

I simply can't rationalise, when all emotion is taken out of it, how it can be spun that the EU find themselves in trouble in this situation, and not us. Half our trade goes to the EU.

I have made my peace with Brexit and no longer have any issues with its implementations, but unfortunately that does not give Brexit voters license to post several factual inaccuracies and for it to be passed off as fact.

 

Right, I did have a few mins spare

I'm not sure about the Kantar study, I'd have to have a proper look to assess validity but the headline stats as printed in that article are highly suspicious and fly in the face of the EU's own long standing euroscepticsm barometer:

https://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/instruments/STANDARD/surveyKy/2255

 

The key metric in there in my opinion is that trust in national governments throughout the EU is dropping like a stone. What happens when citizens are at odds with the people that purport to govern them? Brexit and a stonking tory majority is what happens.

 

I don't believe I've posted any inaccuracies in that post and I'll hold my hand up to any honest mistakes that I make.

 

Again, I'll point out that the record of predictions from remainers is literally appalling.

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You really are in cuckoo land. The EU have all the trump cards, aside of Johnsons hot air  we are in the mire, wait till the Farmers and Fisherman realise what they will get, and then start squealing, the Tories continue to stagger to their proffered option, taking the country down the No Deal route with them. RB and his Union Jack bum chums on here have been taken in, but the rest of the country will see what Captain Cummings and Cabin Boy Johnson are up to.

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10 hours ago, Joe B said:

UK exports to the EU accounts for 8% our of GDP. UK imports account for 2.3% of the EU27's GDP.

Main players - Germany, 2.6%, France 1.4%.

So whilst we do have a trade deficit to the tune of £67bn, we have a much larger risk due to the size of our economy being 10x smaller. The damage from tarriffs is going to be nearly 4x as large to the UK's GDP as it will be to a EU country, even those with increased exposure to our market.

Your worst case are the likes of the Netherlands (5.3%) and Ireland (5%).

The EU will undoubtedly want a deal, as they will take a hit. However, we have more on the line.

Three excellent replies to Regal, you beat me to it.

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