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Fosse69

Match Thread: Morecambe v Port Vale

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We’re judging a player based purely on his goal output, but as things stand right now IMO it is very noticeable what  is missing from the side when Pope does not play. Bennet and Cullen do not lead the line, hold it up, bring others in to play as well, nowhere near as well in fact. However we need to quickly find a way of getting a replacement for Pope as he’s into his last couple of seasons now.

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People shouldn't post selective statistics. It shows how weak their arguement is.

Our club's second highest all-time goalscorer, who hadn't taken a penalty until he was 32, a targetman who holds the ball up and brings others into play. Okay he is our current top-scorer but if we arbitrarily decide to not count the FA Cup (a hat-trick and a goal against the current Premier League champions) and we arbitrarily decide to exclude set piece goals and let's say goals scored in the last ten minutes or on a Tuesday night don't count. Fuckinghell

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19 minutes ago, Wrex said:

People shouldn't post selective statistics. It shows how weak their arguement is.

Our club's second highest all-time goalscorer, who hadn't taken a penalty until he was 32, a targetman who holds the ball up and brings others into play. Okay he is our current top-scorer but if we arbitrarily decide to not count the FA Cup (a hat-trick and a goal against the current Premier League champions) and we arbitrarily decide to exclude set piece goals and let's say goals scored in the last ten minutes or on a Tuesday night don't count. Fuckinghell

Pedant alert, but he used to take penalties a long time before he was 32. He was just crap at them before he turned 32! I remember him missing one at Tranmere in the first season back in League 1 (Lines free kick game). 

Other than that, I agree with your point. 

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The only statistics that actually matter are those for this season. 

Put the ball on popes head in the box and theres a high chance it's a goal

All this talk of hold up play though, he's definitely the best we have at it but the majority of the time its either headed straight towards their goalkeeper with nobody running in, a bit of a 50/50 wrestle with a defender which half of the stadium moans and Tom starts swinging arms about wanting a free kick but it's not or if we are trying to do a quick break, he lays it off well to a winger who runs across the wing looks to whip a ball in and Pope hasn't got back into the box yet so we then cut back and pass back and lose the break. Obviously there are exceptions like the man city goal, and if he keeps playing he will continue to score goals for us but he is clearly starting to fade. It doesn't matter if that's Popes fault or the supply, if it isn't working, it isn't bloody working!

He's a real help at the back too which doesn't get mentioned much, but then that adds to the problem of him running up and down the pitch. 

I think we are slowly creeping back to how we were playing last season

As i've said previously in this thread I like all three of Pope, Cullen and Bennett but we do need better to push on. You can't just excuse one of them and say the other two are <ovf censored> when based on this season they have all provided similar output for us at the front. Even Cullen, a few weeks back was it 5 played 5 goals or something? then he starts the next game, doesn't score and people are saying we should get rid because we decided to play someone smaller than a corner flag upfront on his own? 

Bennett is <ovf censored> at holding the ball up, most of the time it pings off him. But every now and then he will do a flick on or a pass that wouldn't look out of place in the champions league that gets us behind the defence quickly and he's also straight in the box for the return. It's swings and roundabouts. Happy with either starting until we get someone better, it just pisses me off when people can only support one player instead of seeing what they all bring/dont bring to the table.

I also agree with Joe, we shouldn't have to write a <ovf censored> disclaimer every time someone posts something slightly negative about the absolute undoubted legend of our club that is Tom Pope.

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6 hours ago, PV1973 said:

Personally I think there’s only one reason why Worrall was moved to the left and that’s because we put Monty at left back. Imagine a left hand side of Amoo and Monty. To the detriment of the side he’s split up the Worrall / Gibbo partnership so that there’s at least some defensive energy on each side of the pitch. 

Agreed PV , but whatever the reason, the forward threat was weakened and midfield engagement has suffered as a result, though the emergence of Jake Taylor has masked this to some extent. 

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15 hours ago, Sandyford_Lion said:

Oh Joe

Have to disagree entirely. Worrall the best winger in the league .? I agree he is far better than his previous seasons, he works his socks off, most games but he is not a goal scorer, he is not a prolific crosser of a ball and he hardly ever takes a man on out wide to pull the ball back across goal. 

Amoo wow, if he had half the work ethic of Worrall he would be far better. He can take a man on out wide when he wants to. He has terrific pace when he decides to use it. No where near being a good winger and is only chosen each week because we have poor other choices in the squad.

Our poor scoring record is due more to the 2 wide men and 3 midfield men not offering anywhere near enough goals rather than the lone target man not scoring goals.

Lone target man means wide men must tuck inside with Pope at every opportunity.             Loan target man means 2 midfield players of the  3 must push forward i to the box at every opportunity. Taylor apart we have failed in these positions.

This is Askeys big failing to me. He has signed plenty of players in these positions but there are not enough goals in them to reach the play offs.

Worrall has the highest number of successful crosses in the league and is one of the top assisters, so he is, by definition, a prolific crosser of the ball.

I'm sorry mate but Taylor has 7 goals this year, so your midfield claims don't stand up either.

Our lone target man hasn't scored against 11 men, apart from penalties, all season. That's an issue, regardless if you shoehorn the shift of blame to everyone else.

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2 hours ago, Wrex said:

People shouldn't post selective statistics. It shows how weak their arguement is.

Our club's second highest all-time goalscorer, who hadn't taken a penalty until he was 32, a targetman who holds the ball up and brings others into play. Okay he is our current top-scorer but if we arbitrarily decide to not count the FA Cup (a hat-trick and a goal against the current Premier League champions) and we arbitrarily decide to exclude set piece goals and let's say goals scored in the last ten minutes or on a Tuesday night don't count. Fuckinghell

I don't think excluding penalties is that radical.

 

 

Edited by Joe B
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10 minutes ago, Joe B said:

Worrall has the highest number of successful crosses in the league and is one of the top assisters, so he is, by definition, a prolific crosser of the ball.

I'm sorry mate but Taylor has 7 goals this year, so your midfield claims don't stand up either.

Our lone target man hasn't scored against 11 men, apart from penalties, all season. That's an issue, regardless if you shoehorn the shift of blame to everyone else.

Yep, Worrall has the highest XgA in the league at 8.88. This means that his assist should've led to nearly 9 goals this season. In reality he has 6 assists meaning that the chances he's creating for other players are not being being converted at the expected rate. Only Nicky Adams at Northampton gets anywhere near those numbers. Worrall is statistically the most creative player in the league, and signing him up for next season and beyond is a must. 

On the other wing, Amoo's XgA is 4.89. This may seem poor compared to Worrall but it actually makes him the 7th most creative player in the league. Amoo sits on 2 assist, which again implies that the quality of chances he's creating for others are not being converted at the expected rate.

Stats are stats and people will always argue with them. People tend to have a big problem with Xg. Fair enough. However, I'm fairly confident that these stats disprove one thing at least, that our strikers are not getting the service to score goals. The wingers alone have created 13 goals worth of chances this season and seen only 8 converted. 

Whilst I'm talking of Xg - Tom Pope's individual Xg this season (in the league) is 6.52. He's scored 4 goals. This would imply that he's been a bit wasteful this season. 

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How many chances do we create for Popey Cullen or Bennett ,hardly any I’d say we should try a 3-5-2 with Pope being partnered by Cullen Or Ritchie Bennett as Gibbons should be relieved of defensive responsibility along with Monty .

We spend too much time respecting the opposition and not going out and saying come on lads let’s get some decent ball into Popey as some games the level of ball up to Pope is abysmal but be nice see Cullen have a run in the side as he is a very good finisher but he cannot finish if he isn’t being played and when he is he is given 20 mins every now and again because Askey is frightened of the opposition 

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1 hour ago, jjvale_03 said:

Yep, Worrall has the highest XgA in the league at 8.88. This means that his assist should've led to nearly 9 goals this season. In reality he has 6 assists meaning that the chances he's creating for other players are not being being converted at the expected rate. Only Nicky Adams at Northampton gets anywhere near those numbers. Worrall is statistically the most creative player in the league, and signing him up for next season and beyond is a must. 

On the other wing, Amoo's XgA is 4.89. This may seem poor compared to Worrall but it actually makes him the 7th most creative player in the league. Amoo sits on 2 assist, which again implies that the quality of chances he's creating for others are not being converted at the expected rate.

Stats are stats and people will always argue with them. People tend to have a big problem with Xg. Fair enough. However, I'm fairly confident that these stats disprove one thing at least, that our strikers are not getting the service to score goals. The wingers alone have created 13 goals worth of chances this season and seen only 8 converted. 

Whilst I'm talking of Xg - Tom Pope's individual Xg this season (in the league) is 6.52. He's scored 4 goals. This would imply that he's been a bit wasteful this season. 

Fair points. Our problems this year hasn't been creating chances, it's been finishing them regardless of whoever we have up front. No stats to back that up, just the impression I've had from watching the games.

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4 hours ago, jjvale_03 said:

Yep, Worrall has the highest XgA in the league at 8.88. This means that his assist should've led to nearly 9 goals this season. In reality he has 6 assists meaning that the chances he's creating for other players are not being being converted at the expected rate. Only Nicky Adams at Northampton gets anywhere near those numbers. Worrall is statistically the most creative player in the league, and signing him up for next season and beyond is a must. 

On the other wing, Amoo's XgA is 4.89. This may seem poor compared to Worrall but it actually makes him the 7th most creative player in the league. Amoo sits on 2 assist, which again implies that the quality of chances he's creating for others are not being converted at the expected rate.

Stats are stats and people will always argue with them. People tend to have a big problem with Xg. Fair enough. However, I'm fairly confident that these stats disprove one thing at least, that our strikers are not getting the service to score goals. The wingers alone have created 13 goals worth of chances this season and seen only 8 converted. 

Whilst I'm talking of Xg - Tom Pope's individual Xg this season (in the league) is 6.52. He's scored 4 goals. This would imply that he's been a bit wasteful this season. 

Excellent post. I am biased in favour of using xG though.

Worrall also has the 3rd most successful key passes in the league (30, just behind Danny Mayor and Randell Williams) and I believe he's in the top 5 of successful crosses.

Every single statistical metric point to Worrall being a top 5 winger, absolute minimum, this season. When the added eye test comes in, and the exceptional work rate, I can't name a winger, maybe possibly Mayor, I'd rather have.

So unfortunately, despite having one of the league's eminent creators in the supply lines, none of our forwards are scoring. The problem is the strikers. We simply can't keep bleating 'feed the Pope' when we've got, by all metrics, one of the most 'feeding' wingers at League 2 level.

And no lads and ladies, anecdotal evidence such as 'I go the games and can't remember many good crosses' isn't the same. 

Edited by Joe B
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@JoeB you can’t quote stats like that because it goes against commonly held views that our own players aren’t actually that good. Yet another case of not realising how good some of our key players this season are..... Smith, Legge, worrall, Gibbo, Pope. 

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Just a final stat, not edited at all, for those who claim we don't create or cross.

Worrall has put in the 2nd most crosses this season (131) and Amoo the 5th most (101). Of every single player in the League. We literally have the most crossiest winger pairing in the league by a massive margin. All we do is put balls, aerially, into the box.

People spending 10 seconds 'remembering crossing' and confidently asserting 'we don't put balls in the box' are selectively remembering to fit their narrative. We cross more than any other team in the division by miles.

Now, you could quibble on the quality and claim the crosses 'are all bad/useless', but when one of those players has the highest number of key passes, is top 5 for assists, top 5 for completed crosses, and highest xA in the league, and the other recently went on a run of a goal or an assist every game for 4 games, the mantra that the Pope 'isn't being fed' simply falls apart under the first sign of scrutiny.

Our entire build up play is predicated on crosses. We have one very good winger, and one serviceable one, and two attacking full backs.

Is it at all possible, that at 34 and after several injury layoffs, Pope simply isn't able to bully defenders in the air as he once did?

CAVEAT; HE'S STILL A LEGEND.

Edited by Joe B
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Since the stats are available to all clubs, would not other clubs plan to concentrate on cutting out our  crosses from the wings? Where do Taylors goals come from? The answer is variation of attacking. Not that football can be played as if on a computer, but the general picture can be found there.

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46 minutes ago, Fosse69 said:

Since the stats are available to all clubs, would not other clubs plan to concentrate on cutting out our  crosses from the wings? Where do Taylors goals come from? The answer is variation of attacking. Not that football can be played as if on a computer, but the general picture can be found there.

Morecambe did it first half to great effect. 11 men behind the and stop the space for the wingers and full backs. With no midfielder getting forward from us (like Taylor) then they weren’t troubled too much in the first 45 at least. 

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6 hours ago, Vale fan in Alsager said:

How many chances do we create for Popey Cullen or Bennett ,hardly any I’d say we should try a 3-5-2 with Pope being partnered by Cullen Or Ritchie Bennett as Gibbons should be relieved of defensive responsibility along with Monty .

We spend too much time respecting the opposition and not going out and saying come on lads let’s get some decent ball into Popey as some games the level of ball up to Pope is abysmal but be nice see Cullen have a run in the side as he is a very good finisher but he cannot finish if he isn’t being played and when he is he is given 20 mins every now and again because Askey is frightened of the opposition 

Maybe take a break from posting for a while and chill out, have a lie down in a dark room or throw darts at a picture of Nathan Smith. 

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