Match Thread: Scunthorpe United v Port Vale

[darren1810]

PS breaking news 

Half time

FGR xg 2.6  Crewe xg 2.3 

Oh by the way it's 0-0 

[pjg1876]

2 hours ago, valefan16 said:

Another FA charge for us for the trouble at full time.

Would expect a much bigger fine second time around. Will probably goes against the Worrall red card appeal too!

[toyahw]

1 hour ago, darren1810 said:

PS breaking news 

Half time

FGR xg 2.6  Crewe xg 2.3 

Oh by the way it's 0-0 

No need to take the pee mate. The guy Joe B just puts them up in good faith. Make of them what you will is all he says.

[Walka003]

Joe maybe I'm too old skool . The fact we are supposedly the 7th best means nothing at all. 
FGR proves that. Jake Taylor open goal ( hate to pick on him ) was probably a guaranteed goal on xg but he missed. 
I'm sorry mate we'll have to agree to disagree. For example how can xg legislate for Brown dropping the ball ? 
It's not for me, if you have the time and inclination that's your prerogative, we just differ in opinion. And by the way do not patronise me with your sarcastic tone pal 

Xg isn't there to legislate for open goals or dropped catches.

Xg is an indicator of a teams true performance if you were to take out those one off "freak" occurance that happen in games. It's merely a suggest of how a team should be doing. Data analysts are employed by most clubs now (including our own in Dan Thompson) to churn through this information to find weaknesses and strengths in opponents and scout potential signings.

[Santa]

Apparently Saturday was the highest xG for an opposition side against us all season.

[darren1810]

8 hours ago, toyahw said:

No need to take the pee mate. The guy Joe B just puts them up in good faith. Make of them what you will is all he says.

Perhaps read his patronising tone about my post before criticising me 

[pvfc_loyal]

I love stats and xg but that fella's table is a bit disingenuous. Basically gives a draw if you're within 0.33 of a goal of the other team, doesn't give a true indication

 

I prefer to just look at the bare xg stats

in this table, xg For, Against, total difference, total, and then the ratio

 

plenty if not all clubs are using this stuff behind the scenes in terms of recruitment and analysing games/using it to improve tactics etc. Fair enough if you don't understand it but to dismiss it as nonsense is complete folly

 

[Smugsy]

On 23/11/2019 at 18:32, Smugsy said:

Appeals against red cards at this level rarely succeed because there's one camera angle unlike the multiple cameras at a Premier League game and unless it's blatantly obvious, they'll stick with the referee's decision.

Sadly I was right. Worrell's sending off is upheld

[rayzer]

Does he now get a further match ban for losing an appeal?

[valefan16]

Just now, rayzer said:

Does he now get a further match ban for losing an appeal?

No only if frivolous, I believe, Scunthorpe's got rejected to but their lad had his ban down from 4 to 3 games.

[Jacko51]

23 minutes ago, valefan16 said:

No only if frivolous, I believe, Scunthorpe's got rejected to but their lad had his ban down from 4 to 3 games.

I note the Scunny manager has effectively called the ref a liar. He says some of the stuff in the ref’s report simply didn’t happen. 

[Santa]

Why four games? 

PS this is <ovf censored> by the way. 

[The Kalamazoo Kid]

10 minutes ago, Santa said:

Why four games? 

PS this is <ovf censored> by the way. 

The ban doesn't cover the EFL Trophy competition, but Worrall still can't play in the game v Mansfield as he's serving a ban when that game is played. (assume the ban means that the player can't play in any games, including reserves, until 3 league/FA Cup games gave been played)

As you say, it is <ovf censored>

[Iron Curtain]

On 26/11/2019 at 08:42, darren1810 said:

I was there on Saturday and we couldn't of argued at a 3-1 or worse defeat.

Which ironic because that what the xG indicated the score should have been.

xG DOES NOT replace the league table and the anyone repeating "The league table speaks for itself" don't really get the concept. No one thinks it should be replaced.

How many times have we heard fans or pundits comment.... "We have a certain striker who hasnt scored yet but he is getting himself in the right positions and having chances so the goals will come eventually"... xG is a way of quantifying that issue. Creating lots of chances = high xG. Not scoring = not very good at finishing those chances. 

If you have a striker with High xG and low goals = Keep him and the goals have a chance of coming

If you have a striker with low xG and low goals = Get rid, its probably not going to change and the chances are the goals wont come

If you have a striker with a Low xG and high goals = Dont bank on him doing it for ever... or sell him for millions if he does

Steve McPhee comes to mind.... in his first season he had lots of chances but couldnt hit a cows arse with a banjo... His xG would have been very high has he had lots of chances and many of them were quality. If we went off the old adage of "He hasnt scored so he is rubbish" then we would have gotten rid of him... but it was believed that if he kept doing the same thing the goals would come... which they did. Eventually his xG started to convert into goals.

Another example is the old favourite of the smash and grab win.... "It was terrible, we hammered them for 90 mins and they scored with one shot".... All xG does is convert that into a statistic to prove how unbalanced the game was. The dominant team would have a high xG, the team that won would have a low one. No one is suggesting the score should change, but it helps over a season to realise that if you consistently score higher xG then you have a better chance of improving your results.

Its a new and different way of looking at games but its very highly thought of in the higher leagues and is a leading indicator to success.

The issue with your FGR question of "How can they be second when their xG is far lower" is that, like all statistics, they need time to come true... over a longer period, FGR's goals should reduce to be in line with their chances. If you toss a coin and throw 10 heads in a row, I guarantee you that the more and more you throw the coin, the closer to 50:50 your heads and tails ratio will become.

I'm not sure if you have watched Moneyball the film... if not its well worth a watch. Sport is moving into a data age and these guys started it.  There were a lot of people judging baseballers based on the way they looked and the simple stats of "Home runs"... problem there is that if you hit lots of home runs the Yankees (Man city) sign you on a contract worth £21m a year and you get diddly squat in return. And with the smaller wage budget the smaller teams couldn't compete so had to understand what the leading indicator to getting runs was... for baseball it was the ratio of how often a batter was "Walked" to first base by the bowler. No one in the league valued that stat... The Oakland A's figured it out, and made the world series with the lowest budget in the league.

I appreciate this is a long ramble.... In summary. xG doesnt replace the league table, no says it should, yes goals are a more significant statistic than xG.... BUT it is a leading indicator to how many goals a team is likely to score over a long period (eg a season)

 

[Iron Curtain]

18 hours ago, DistantVale said:

Get a life mate.... the league table is here to stay !

Classic misunderstanding... No one, no one, literally not a single person, no one has even thought about, no one has even hinted at, no one, no one, no one... has suggested the league table should go anywhere. 

For years match reports have shown:

1. Shots

2. Shots on target 

3. Possession

4. Corners

5. Fouls committed

etc etc

Should also abandon these stats and not report them because they are a waste of time... who judges if a shot was on target, who judges if a speculative punt forward counts as a shot or not.... There is no point having them is there.... they dont impact the league table!!