General Erection - 12th December 2019

[geosname]

What I hope happens tomorrow.....

Boris wins with a very small working majority.... Labour lose a number of seats to lib dems..... Labour get rid of jezza and are very careful who they select to be the leader (fruit of the tree)..... Boris faces turmoil within his party trying to get issues through and in double quick time faces and loses a no confidence vote as leader, they are careful who they select as leader (as labour).... with a small majority it may not be feasible to get brexit done which could bring down the Tories and we start again with new leaders of both major parties.... brexit will be deadlocked and will grind parliament to a standstill untill both major parties can produce a workable solution..... which may be another in out referendum..... timescale?..... within 12 months.

[Bycarsbill]

1 hour ago, philpvfc said:

I grew up in Madeley and the GP’s were really good back then.

A really interesting interview on Channel 4's news programme last night with a senior NHS consultant professor of oncology in which he claimed that roots of the big problems with the NHS and particularly the A & E crisis dates back ( I know, there'll be loads of groans, but this is someone who knows what he's talking about!) to the time when Blair not only increased GPs salaries to the £100K mark but also allowed them to decide not to work weekends. The professor also pointed out that the PFI initiatives introduced by chancellor Gordon Brown to fund lots of new hospitals (the biggest 'privatisation' of the NHS so far) is now costing the NHS £90billion a year in interest and contract fees.  As the professor said; "this is £90 billion that could have been spent on consultants, doctors,nurses and social care if it wasn't instead being spent to service debt." Some salutary thoughts for all of us!

[Jacko51]

2 minutes ago, Bycarsbill said:

A really interesting interview on Channel 4's news programme last night with a senior NHS consultant professor of oncology in which he claimed that roots of the big problems with the NHS and particularly the A & E crisis dates back ( I know, there'll be loads of groans, but this is someone who knows what he's talking about!) to the time when Blair not only increased GPs salaries to the £100K mark but also allowed them to decide not to work weekends. The professor also pointed out that the PFI initiatives introduced by chancellor Gordon Brown to fund lots of new hospitals (the biggest 'privatisation' of the NHS so far) is now costing the NHS £90billion a year in interest and contract fees.  As the professor said; "this is £90 billion that could have been spent on consultants, doctors,nurses and social care if it wasn't instead being spent to service debt." Some salutary thoughts for all of us!

So which of the parties is going to reverse this policy?  Any or none?

[TheSage]

Just a reply about immigration. It's not open house for any old Tom, Dick or Harry to come here, contrary to populist opinion. 

Of course, there is an issue to be addressed. We are a small country. Allowing an over concentration of too many immigrants in certain parts of the UK has upset the population balance for many. I agree. Places like Boston and the West Midlands and northern towns. A lot of people feel as if their culture is being eroded and if these people do not speak English well and dress differently it can be disconcerting. For older folk especially. I get that. We haven't addressed these issues ever and things like that have been sliding since the nineties. I understand why [mainly older] voters feel that way. 

Remember that immigration from non EU countries is far greater. We have always been able to control that 100% but have never chosen to do so. Leaving the EU will not make a difference. So if you think leaving the EU will mean we'll have less from Iran, Iraq,Turkey, Libya, Syria, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, you are sorely mistaken. Most evidence suggests that it will rise if EU numbers drop. Even May said that. And we know that people are more likely to integrate here if they come from places like France, Germany, Eire or Spain. But we'll lose them and get more from the places above.

In terms of the EU, yes there is a issue and there is FOM but we do have a number of rules and regulations that we don't enforce. I'd guess that 90% of people don't know that and think anyone can walk in here but it's not true. The 2004 FOM act said that for new countries (like Poland) joining the EU we could restrict or ban movement for up to 7 years. We did not do that. Austria had a ban. I think Holland says 22,000 annually and no more. But we did nothing. 

We should of course turn away illegal immigrants (not to be confused with asylum seekers), criminal gangs, thieves, fraudsters and those who abuse the system. They can all be legally expelled and so they should. We already have the power to do it but again we don't enforce it because border staff and customs staff have been cut and we don't track people coming here. We don't register people and we don't have ID cards. Belgium makes immigrants prove they have jobs, housing, money, etc and tracks them. We don't. We could do all of these things under the current rules. But it was our choice not to do so. Nowt to do with the EU. It's down to government inaction.

EU workers who come here should have a job, money and health insurance within three months or we can deport them. We don't because we don't know where they are and don't make them register.

Cameron negotiated an emergency brake but because we don't track everyone we haven't the foggiest how many are here. But that's all our fault.

Article 45 TFEU states that, "If overriding reasons of public interest make it necessary, free movement of workers may be restricted by measures proportionate to the aim pursued." (copied and pasted). So we do have more ability than you might think if we wanted to restrict immigration. But not registering and tracking everyone and cutting our border force is all our own fault. I'm unsure of the figure now but we did cut 5-8000 border staff in the years after 2010.

FOM of course works both ways and means we too can live, work, study and retire in Europe, with reciprocal benefits, as over 1 million UK citizens do. It's a good thing. 

But I'm not convinced that every voter understands the current system and I'm sure many believe we don't have any control of our borders which is untrue.

 

 

 

[TheSage]

7 minutes ago, Bycarsbill said:

A really interesting interview on Channel 4's news programme last night with a senior NHS consultant professor of oncology in which he claimed that roots of the big problems with the NHS and particularly the A & E crisis dates back ( I know, there'll be loads of groans, but this is someone who knows what he's talking about!) to the time when Blair not only increased GPs salaries to the £100K mark but also allowed them to decide not to work weekends. The professor also pointed out that the PFI initiatives introduced by chancellor Gordon Brown to fund lots of new hospitals (the biggest 'privatisation' of the NHS so far) is now costing the NHS £90billion a year in interest and contract fees.  As the professor said; "this is £90 billion that could have been spent on consultants, doctors,nurses and social care if it wasn't instead being spent to service debt." Some salutary thoughts for all of us!

I suspect that's right and I don't support that at all. Fair point. But the current lot have had 10 years in power so what have they done about it?

We can't keep blaming what occurred 22 years ago on the state of the NHS in 2019. Surely to goodness 10 years in power is long enough to start addressing these issues but everything has got much much worse! We didn't have the NHS missing all their key targets back then and overall the NHS was in a far better state then than now. Labour invested in it. It was a golden age for the NHS then.

[TheSage]

21 minutes ago, geosname said:

What I hope happens tomorrow.....

Boris wins with a very small working majority.... Labour lose a number of seats to lib dems..... Labour get rid of jezza and are very careful who they select to be the leader (fruit of the tree)..... Boris faces turmoil within his party trying to get issues through and in double quick time faces and loses a no confidence vote as leader, they are careful who they select as leader (as labour).... with a small majority it may not be feasible to get brexit done which could bring down the Tories and we start again with new leaders of both major parties.... brexit will be deadlocked and will grind parliament to a standstill untill both major parties can produce a workable solution..... which may be another in out referendum..... timescale?..... within 12 months.

I tend to agree with the general thrust of your comment. We are not far apart. Naturally I'd prefer a hung parliament (Corbyn hasn't a chance on his own), a people's vote and a sustained programme of investment to attack austerity and revive the NHS and public services. That would tame Corbyn. I think/hope Corbyn would soon go. He can't continue for much longer. And the ruthless Tories would ditch Johnson. My fear though is that Labour will stick with hard leftie and the Tories with a hard right leader and we'll continue this polarisation and nasty political discourse for years to come.

Ideally - tongue in cheek - I'd like a government of Grieve, Clarke, Starmer, Cooper, Swinson, Cable, Lucas, Stewart & Burnham, taking advice from Major, Heseltine & Blair.

A centre government would suit me fine and I want a system of PR to prevent what is now happening.

But I also want a villa in Nice, one of those brand new Tesla cars and a date with Liz Hurley, but I doubt it'll happen. 

[Jacko51]

31 minutes ago, TheSage said:

I tend to agree with the general thrust of your comment. We are not far apart. Naturally I'd prefer a hung parliament (Corbyn hasn't a chance on his own), a people's vote and a sustained programme of investment to attack austerity and revive the NHS and public services. That would tame Corbyn. I think/hope Corbyn would soon go. He can't continue for much longer. And the ruthless Tories would ditch Johnson. My fear though is that Labour will stick with hard leftie and the Tories with a hard right leader and we'll continue this polarisation and nasty political discourse for years to come.

Ideally - tongue in cheek - I'd like a government of Grieve, Clarke, Starmer, Cooper, Swinson, Cable, Lucas, Stewart & Burnham, taking advice from Major, Heseltine & Blair.

A centre government would suit me fine and I want a system of PR to prevent what is now happening.

But I also want a villa in Nice, one of those brand new Tesla cars and a date with Liz Hurley, but I doubt it'll happen. 

I've just texted Liz, Sage.  She can fit you in on 4th Jan at 5pm if you're free?

 

[Jacko51]

Boris out in the cold this morning!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/dec/11/boris-johnson-retreats-into-fridge-to-avoid-tv-interview-video

[TheSage]

9 minutes ago, Jacko51 said:

I've just texted Liz, Sage.  She can fit you in on 4th Jan at 5pm if you're free?

I can get two tickets if she's keen. 😉

[TheSage]

9 minutes ago, Jacko51 said:

Boris out in the cold this morning!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/dec/11/boris-johnson-retreats-into-fridge-to-avoid-tv-interview-video

Finish as you started eh?

And we were all told how much better he was at campaigning than May.

I suppose it's clever tactics by Cummings isn't it? They know they're ahead and have been since the start so do nothing, absolutely nothing, to rock the boat. Avoid scrutiny. Turn down Andrew Neill. Don't go on the climate change debate because your record is crap. Don't do Newsnight. Lock up Mogg and IDS because voters hate them. Release our manifesto on a quiet Sunday and don't put any costings in it. And if you can tell a few porkies along the way... But don't do more than you have to. Shy away from people and stage manage everything you can.

It's worked hasn't it?

[Mario]

1 hour ago, Bycarsbill said:

A really interesting interview on Channel 4's news programme last night with a senior NHS consultant professor of oncology in which he claimed that roots of the big problems with the NHS and particularly the A & E crisis dates back ( I know, there'll be loads of groans, but this is someone who knows what he's talking about!) to the time when Blair not only increased GPs salaries to the £100K mark but also allowed them to decide not to work weekends. The professor also pointed out that the PFI initiatives introduced by chancellor Gordon Brown to fund lots of new hospitals (the biggest 'privatisation' of the NHS so far) is now costing the NHS £90billion a year in interest and contract fees.  As the professor said; "this is £90 billion that could have been spent on consultants, doctors,nurses and social care if it wasn't instead being spent to service debt." Some salutary thoughts for all of us!

I was going to mention about GP's but I thought I would get shouted down, a neighbour of mine was a GP and he confessed to me that the extra money given to him by "His mate Blair" would mean at his age he could afford to reduce his working day down to 3 days a week and then in 4 years retire,when I asked him who would take up the slack he said he didn't know.

He also said a lot of his colleagues had/were going to take advantage,he said thats why when you go to the surgery you see that their might be 8 GP's but only say 5 working on any given day. 

I think that by throwing money at a problem and automatically expecting greater productivity, due to human nature is a flawed concept.

I think it's short sighted to blame ALL the faults of the NHS on the Conservatives, Labour have played their part as well.

With a growing aged population and a growing population, the NHS is a problem that is going to need some out of the box solutions whoever gets the keys to No 10.

[Bycarsbill]

17 minutes ago, TheSage said:

Finish as you started eh?

And we were all told how much better he was at campaigning than May.

I suppose it's clever tactics by Cummings isn't it? They know they're ahead and have been since the start so do nothing, absolutely nothing, to rock the boat. Avoid scrutiny. Turn down Andrew Neill. Don't go on the climate change debate because your record is crap. Don't do Newsnight. Lock up Mogg and IDS because voters hate them. Release our manifesto on a quiet Sunday and don't put any costings in it. And if you can tell a few porkies along the way... But don't do more than you have to. Shy away from people and stage manage everything you can.

It's worked hasn't it?

Is that why Labour has "locked up" Diane Abbott, Emily Thornberry & Kier Starmer and a load of other shadow front benchers? Boris has done 118 sit-down interviews plus the 2 direct head-to-heads with Jeremy.  Every Labour rally we see Jezza attending is carefully stage-managed--that's the nature of electioneering. Surprised & disappointed that you of all people has now started to share in the 'conspiracy theories' that I normally associate with Mr. H, Nofinikea and the other usual suspect lefties!

[Bycarsbill]

3 minutes ago, Mario said:

I was going to mention about GP's but I thought I would get shouted down, a neighbour of mine was a GP and he confessed to me that the extra money given to him by "His mate Blair" would mean at his age he could afford to reduce his working day down to 3 days a week and then in 4 years retire,when I asked him who would take up the slack he said he didn't know.

He also said a lot of his colleagues had/were going to take advantage,he said thats why when you go to the surgery you see that their might be 8 GP's but only say 5 working on any given day. 

I think that by throwing money at a problem and automatically expecting greater productivity, due to human nature is a flawed concept.

I think it's short sighted to blame ALL the faults of the NHS on the Conservatives, Labour have played their part as well.

With a growing aged population and a growing population, the NHS is a problem that is going to need some out of the box solutions whoever gets the keys to No 10.

At last a sensible and rational view on the NHS problem!

[Bycarsbill]

1 hour ago, TheSage said:

I suspect that's right and I don't support that at all. Fair point. But the current lot have had 10 years in power so what have they done about it?

We can't keep blaming what occurred 22 years ago on the state of the NHS in 2019. Surely to goodness 10 years in power is long enough to start addressing these issues but everything has got much much worse! We didn't have the NHS missing all their key targets back then and overall the NHS was in a far better state then than now. Labour invested in it. It was a golden age for the NHS then.

The problem is that the PFI initaitives took the investment 'off-book' which suited Brown and his economic manipulations, but like a mortgage (which these effectively were) you have to keep paying in the long-term and that £90 billion interest/contract annual charge as the oncology professor pointed out, could do a lot to alleviate some of the worst gaps in staff, beds & treatment.  But just like any long term borrowing, it is not that easy to mitigate--whoever has the debt has to service it and this was passed on from the Blair/Brown governments. We'll still be paying back the debt for many years to yet come whichever colour of government is in charge!

[Bycarsbill]

1 hour ago, Jacko51 said:

So which of the parties is going to reverse this policy?  Any or none?

It's very difficult, if nigh on impossible to just reverse the PFI contracts and I'm pretty sure doctors would be pretty miffed if any government suggested cutting their salaries!  At least the Conservatives have tried to extend GPs surgery opening hours to evenings & weekends!