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May on the way??


Jacko51

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49 minutes ago, Regal Beagle said:

Nice try but the value of the pound and the stalling economy doesn't count as we haven't left yet. A low currancy value can actually stimulate economy growth and is fantastic for exporters.

There will obviously be less regulation as we only have to worry about regulating ourselves and don't have to comply with the regulations of everyone else.

And great, i'm happy with taking our time over trade deals, but I don't think the other remainers share that view.

It's great for exports but bloody awful for imports..... we don't manufacture much these days but we import a he'll of a lot.... so not good overall.

If the pound can drop so much at the thought of leaving how far can it fall when we actually leave? As an example... on the day of the referendum the exchange rate here was 51 bht to the £... it's now 36 bht... well over a 20% drop.

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I don't think you can make out a particularly strong case on economic grounds for leaving. As geo has outlined - you can't buck the market. The possible consequences range from dire to perhaps ok in the fullness of time, however long that might be.

Being part of the single market and customs union for nigh on 500 million people has been of huge benefit. It's been a godsend to our economy and looking back it was no wonder that we spent 10-15 years trying to get in in the sixties. Having "free" access to this huge successful trading bloc is something that every country in the world would like to have. 

This is why car manufacturers are expressing their concerns. Why the Japanese PM has twice told us to sort out a sensible deal. Why very many businesses have already moved to Europe or downsized. Why sterling has been hit. Why inward investment has taken a punch in the nose. Why the government's own officials and the bosses at the Bank of England have all warned of the consequences of No Deal. Of course, the sky won't fall in. We'll manage as best we can. But it's a risk and no-one can say that it isn't.

There was talk of expert opinion, above, but you have to go with the balance of that and listen to economists and financial experts, look at the history of our economic growth inside the EU, and weight up the pros/cons.

Whatever occurs and whatever the outcome we'll have to negotiate a trade deal with our nearest and dearest EU member states. Remember nearly half our exports and imports come from the EU. It's our closest neighbour and makes logical sense to trade with it and not countries tens of thousands of miles away. It's cheaper for starters. So, all this bravado about not paying our bills and leaving without stumping up the 39 billion or whatever is stupid. It might be a great sound bite but what it would do to our relationship with the EU and to our international reputation abroad does not bear thinking about. Sterling would hit the floor. You ain't seen nothing yet, geo!

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1 hour ago, TheSage said:

I don't think you can make out a particularly strong case on economic grounds for leaving. As geo has outlined - you can't buck the market. The possible consequences range from dire to perhaps ok in the fullness of time, however long that might be.

Being part of the single market and customs union for nigh on 500 million people has been of huge benefit. It's been a godsend to our economy and looking back it was no wonder that we spent 10-15 years trying to get in in the sixties. Having "free" access to this huge successful trading bloc is something that every country in the world would like to have. 

This is why car manufacturers are expressing their concerns. Why the Japanese PM has twice told us to sort out a sensible deal. Why very many businesses have already moved to Europe or downsized. Why sterling has been hit. Why inward investment has taken a punch in the nose. Why the government's own officials and the bosses at the Bank of England have all warned of the consequences of No Deal. Of course, the sky won't fall in. We'll manage as best we can. But it's a risk and no-one can say that it isn't.

There was talk of expert opinion, above, but you have to go with the balance of that and listen to economists and financial experts, look at the history of our economic growth inside the EU, and weight up the pros/cons.

Whatever occurs and whatever the outcome we'll have to negotiate a trade deal with our nearest and dearest EU member states. Remember nearly half our exports and imports come from the EU. It's our closest neighbour and makes logical sense to trade with it and not countries tens of thousands of miles away. It's cheaper for starters. So, all this bravado about not paying our bills and leaving without stumping up the 39 billion or whatever is stupid. It might be a great sound bite but what it would do to our relationship with the EU and to our international reputation abroad does not bear thinking about. Sterling would hit the floor. You ain't seen nothing yet, geo!

The other side of the coin mate is that it's going to be bloody expensive to stay too

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1 hour ago, TheSage said:

I don't think you can make out a particularly strong case on economic grounds for leaving. As geo has outlined - you can't buck the market. The possible consequences range from dire to perhaps ok in the fullness of time, however long that might be.

Being part of the single market and customs union for nigh on 500 million people has been of huge benefit. It's been a godsend to our economy and looking back it was no wonder that we spent 10-15 years trying to get in in the sixties. Having "free" access to this huge successful trading bloc is something that every country in the world would like to have. 

This is why car manufacturers are expressing their concerns. Why the Japanese PM has twice told us to sort out a sensible deal. Why very many businesses have already moved to Europe or downsized. Why sterling has been hit. Why inward investment has taken a punch in the nose. Why the government's own officials and the bosses at the Bank of England have all warned of the consequences of No Deal. Of course, the sky won't fall in. We'll manage as best we can. But it's a risk and no-one can say that it isn't.

There was talk of expert opinion, above, but you have to go with the balance of that and listen to economists and financial experts, look at the history of our economic growth inside the EU, and weight up the pros/cons.

Whatever occurs and whatever the outcome we'll have to negotiate a trade deal with our nearest and dearest EU member states. Remember nearly half our exports and imports come from the EU. It's our closest neighbour and makes logical sense to trade with it and not countries tens of thousands of miles away. It's cheaper for starters. So, all this bravado about not paying our bills and leaving without stumping up the 39 billion or whatever is stupid. It might be a great sound bite but what it would do to our relationship with the EU and to our international reputation abroad does not bear thinking about. Sterling would hit the floor. You ain't seen nothing yet, geo!

You could use the same logic as an arguement for the economic grounds for remaining.

There will be winners and losers in a no deal scenario. The IEA believes that consumers, exporters and manufacturers will win whereas the city of London will lose along with EU producers, for example.

Add in the fact that we will also then have free rein in terms of policy as we wont be hamstrung by EU law (though obviously bad policy will have a negative effect in fairness). I really think that tips the scales in favour of saying that the economy will be better outside of the EU than inside.

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1 hour ago, Regal Beagle said:

 

So can you please explain how Japan and Mercosur have been able to negotiate a trade deal with the EU without joining it? Without allowing free movement of people and without giving uptheir sovereignty?

Can you then please explain why we cannot do the same?

There is nothing to explain if you think about it

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1 hour ago, Regal Beagle said:

 

So can you please explain how Japan and Mercosur have been able to negotiate a trade deal with the EU without joining it? Without allowing free movement of people and without giving uptheir sovereignty?

Can you then please explain why we cannot do the same?

It takes 2 to tango ?

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13 hours ago, Regal Beagle said:

Nice try but the value of the pound and the stalling economy doesn't count as we haven't left yet. A low currancy value can actually stimulate economy growth and is fantastic for exporters.

There will obviously be less regulation as we only have to worry about regulating ourselves and don't have to comply with the regulations of everyone else.

And great, i'm happy with taking our time over trade deals, but I don't think the other remainers share that view.

Regal, there's no nice about it, the pound started to fall when the referendum was muted/announced and on the day of the referendum the pound effectively devalued, the UK hasn't left yet but it's voted to leave, look at the data it's there for everyone to see. 

If I'd got a few million to spare I'd hedge my bets and invest some in sterling 'cause eventually it will rise against the dollar especially if a 2nd referendum is announced and the result was to remain, potentially easy money.

 

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8 hours ago, Paul6754 said:

Regal, there's no nice about it, the pound started to fall when the referendum was muted/announced and on the day of the referendum the pound effectively devalued, the UK hasn't left yet but it's voted to leave, look at the data it's there for everyone to see. 

If I'd got a few million to spare I'd hedge my bets and invest some in sterling 'cause eventually it will rise against the dollar especially if a 2nd referendum is announced and the result was to remain, potentially easy money.

 

And what would the political cost of a second referendum be? 

 

What about the inevitable rioting in the streets which I fear would happen if our democratic right is snatched away.

 

Plus, like I say, and many economists agree, the economy wont be adversely affected by a no deal Brexit in the long run, after a short period of disruption due to the big change. 

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33 minutes ago, Regal Beagle said:

And what would the political cost of a second referendum be? 

 

What about the inevitable rioting in the streets which I fear would happen if our democratic right is snatched away.

 

Plus, like I say, and many economists agree, the economy wont be adversely affected by a no deal Brexit in the long run, after a short period of disruption due to the big change. 

Im not sure the political consequences will increase much with another referendum. Those consequences are already in place. Unless there is a serious shift in policy, which i doubt happening.

Jazzer and his side want out but most don't want to admit it, the other side want in. The Tories say they want out until push comes to shove. None of them know how to get out without waiting for the default no deal.... which will probably be triggered by the EU not extending.

Protesting I can see..... rioting I doubt.

I think the fallout, politically, will be triggered by the next general election.

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