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May on the way??


Jacko51

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11 minutes ago, philpvfc said:

A no deal wouldn’t have been so bad had the Government prepared for it. I’m organising with suppliers a new run EU lead compliance which is already a month overdue. There has been absolutely no preparation from the Government and it is in a right mess now with a major knock on with businesses throughout the U.K. 

everything seems to be last minute.com

I doubt there was ever a firstminute.com Geo...

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7 hours ago, Regal Beagle said:

A couple of years of disruption. I honestly believe that 5 years after we leave we will be in a better place with a much brighter future,  economically speaking.

If it wasn't serious it would be funny, voting Brexit and leaving the UK economy to a couple of years disruption and "Honestly believing" something that there is not a scrap of evidence for whereas the threats, short and long term,  to the UK economy were real even before the vote was taken, eg falling value of the pound, UK  economic growth one of the slowest of the G7 countries and other issues highlighted by captains of industry.

Meanwhile the EU signs a trade deal with four South American countries, but we know the UK can do this in 5 minutes, Boris and Farage told us. Dream on.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161

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2 hours ago, Paul6754 said:

If it wasn't serious it would be funny, voting Brexit and leaving the UK economy to a couple of years disruption and "Honestly believing" something that there is not a scrap of evidence for whereas the threats, short and long term,  to the UK economy were real even before the vote was taken, eg falling value of the pound, UK  economic growth one of the slowest of the G7 countries and other issues highlighted by captains of industry.

Meanwhile the EU signs a trade deal with four South American countries, but we know the UK can do this in 5 minutes, Boris and Farage told us. Dream on.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161

Many people honestly believe something because an "expert" says its true, which eventually turns out to be false... there are no "experts" when predicting the future, if there were the bookies would be bankrupt.

There is a danger, economically, of not leaving the EU. There is a danger of such wide splits politically that coalitions may have to be formed to govern for many years to come, which in itself hobble any party to the whims of its conspirators, e.g. the DUP. That would be financially damaging.

Although I disagree with regal beagles assessments I also  aknowledge he could be correct.

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2 hours ago, geosname said:

Many people honestly believe something because an "expert" says its true, which eventually turns out to be false... there are no "experts" when predicting the future, if there were the bookies would be bankrupt.

There is a danger, economically, of not leaving the EU. There is a danger of such wide splits politically that coalitions may have to be formed to govern for many years to come, which in itself hobble any party to the whims of its conspirators, e.g. the DUP. That would be financially damaging.

Although I disagree with regal beagles assessments I also  aknowledge he could be correct.

Geo, obviously it's up to you what you believe but for example when I want to plan financially for my future I go see a financial adviser as the probability is he/she will be more informed and give better advice than a lay person etc etc.

There is risk to everything, yes Regal could be right and I have said as much in the past but IMHO it's crazy to take such risks with the UK economy and crazy to vote on the basis of a belief that something may happen when there's very little evidence (that I've seen) that it could or will happen and much more comment from informed people that it won't.

As for your comment, "there are no "experts" when predicting the future" there is a branch of statistics called Regression Analysis which is a powerful prediction technique in some circumstances but admittedly not in this case of the economic future post Brexit.

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6 hours ago, Paul6754 said:

If it wasn't serious it would be funny, voting Brexit and leaving the UK economy to a couple of years disruption and "Honestly believing" something that there is not a scrap of evidence for whereas the threats, short and long term,  to the UK economy were real even before the vote was taken, eg falling value of the pound, UK  economic growth one of the slowest of the G7 countries and other issues highlighted by captains of industry. 

Meanwhile the EU signs a trade deal with four South American countries, but we know the UK can do this in 5 minutes, Boris and Farage told us. Dream on. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161

Many people believe that there will be damage to the economy if we leave without there being a single scrap of evidence.

Less regulation and being able to make decisions quickly without having to wait for 27 other countries to agree (when it's clear that not all can agree on everything) is obviously better for the economy in my opinion.

And yes, you joke about 5 minutes for a trade deal but we can sign trade deals much quicker than the EU who have taken 20 years to reach this deal. It really is quite clear that we could agree a mutually beneficial trade deal much quicker than that.

 

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4 hours ago, geosname said:

Although I disagree with regal beagles assessments I also  aknowledge he could be correct.

It's the lack of acknowledgement that is one of my biggest issues with the remain side. That and the whole supporting a tyrannical government decision to disobey the biggest political mandate in British history.

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1 hour ago, Paul6754 said:

Geo, obviously it's up to you what you believe but for example when I want to plan financially for my future I go see a financial adviser as the probability is he/she will be more informed and give better advice than a lay person etc etc.

There is risk to everything, yes Regal could be right and I have said as much in the past but IMHO it's crazy to take such risks with the UK economy and crazy to vote on the basis of a belief that something may happen when there's very little evidence (that I've seen) that it could or will happen and much more comment from informed people that it won't.

As for your comment, "there are no "experts" when predicting the future" there is a branch of statistics called Regression Analysis which is a powerful prediction technique in some circumstances but admittedly not in this case of the economic future post Brexit.

I don't disagree with much of what you say I can only give you my opinion which is based on my own life experiences. There is nothing I could be classed as an expert on..... except me.

Your last paragraph is a little odd. It's not possible to predict a future event with certainty that's why it's a prediction not a fact. I would surmise that such predictions are based on the past bearing in mind all the current relevant factors... if any one of those factors varies in the slightest the whole prediction could change the prediction dramatically altered.

We can surmise that the prediction is a likely outcome given the current circumstances.

I have stated the likely outcome of brexit will be a problem financially for about 20 years. I also think the fallout of remaining will be a financial burden for at least a similar length of time, if not longer.

Which would be the best of two evils?... I can't predict.

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51 minutes ago, Aussie Rules said:

In the meantime at the G20 Ms May gets in the face of Mr Putin to have a go at him about the 'Salisbury Affair'.

Priceless...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Putin savaged by a wet lettuce........ I bet he was shaking in his boots..... although he could have been chuckling Barry.

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13 minutes ago, geosname said:

Putin savaged by a wet lettuce........ I bet he was shaking in his boots..... although he could have been chuckling Barry.

It beggars belief Geo. The UK is on the brink of goodness knows what, and all she can do is whimper 'Salisbury'.

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3 hours ago, Aussie Rules said:

It beggars belief Geo. The UK is on the brink of goodness knows what, and all she can do is whimper 'Salisbury'.

To be honest mate at the moment there is bugger all she can do, no respect, no authority, no support, no influence, no power... like a limp lettuce on a bad salad.... pushed to the side of the plate.

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22 hours ago, Regal Beagle said:

Many people believe that there will be damage to the economy if we leave without there being a single scrap of evidence.

Less regulation and being able to make decisions quickly without having to wait for 27 other countries to agree (when it's clear that not all can agree on everything) is obviously better for the economy in my opinion.

And yes, you joke about 5 minutes for a trade deal but we can sign trade deals much quicker than the EU who have taken 20 years to reach this deal. It really is quite clear that we could agree a mutually beneficial trade deal much quicker than that.

Already posted pieces of evidence, value of the pound and UK and economic growth being one of the slowest of the G7 countries whereas you post touchy feely stuff, hope, believe without a shred of evidence.

It isn't about making deals quickly it's making the best and the right deals for the UK, what makes you think there will be less regulation  and decisions can be made more quickly given what's happened since June 2016.

Quote

 

 

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22 hours ago, geosname said:

I don't disagree with much of what you say I can only give you my opinion which is based on my own life experiences. There is nothing I could be classed as an expert on..... except me.

Your last paragraph is a little odd. It's not possible to predict a future event with certainty that's why it's a prediction not a fact. I would surmise that such predictions are based on the past bearing in mind all the current relevant factors... if any one of those factors varies in the slightest the whole prediction could change the prediction dramatically altered.

We can surmise that the prediction is a likely outcome given the current circumstances.

I have stated the likely outcome of brexit will be a problem financially for about 20 years. I also think the fallout of remaining will be a financial burden for at least a similar length of time, if not longer.

Which would be the best of two evils?... I can't predict.

Geo, My last paragraph refers to it is possible in some situations to mathematically model using various statistical techniques to a fair - high degree of certainty/probability (but not absolute certainty in my experience) based on previous data/occurrences. 

The more complex the problem the more difficult it is to predict hence why climate is very difficult to predict in the future hence why the models get the predictions so wrong.

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6 minutes ago, Paul6754 said:

Geo, My last paragraph refers to it is possible in some situations to mathematically model using various statistical techniques to a fair - high degree of certainty/probability (but not absolute certainty in my experience) based on previous data/occurrences. 

The more complex the problem the more difficult it is to predict hence why climate is very difficult to predict in the future hence why the models get the predictions so wrong.

I accept that mate, my only "niggle", if it is one, is common statements that this (whatever this is) will happen as opposed to this will probably happen. That may sound pedantic but it's not meant to be, and I realise that posts are made up of varying opinions so the statement this will happen should be read with the "in my opinion" included even though not written it gets mixed in with people demanding facts.

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5 hours ago, Paul6754 said:

Already posted pieces of evidence, value of the pound and UK and economic growth being one of the slowest of the G7 countries whereas you post touchy feely stuff, hope, believe without a shred of evidence. 

It isn't about making deals quickly it's making the best and the right deals for the UK, what makes you think there will be less regulation  and decisions can be made more quickly given what's happened since June 2016. 

 

Nice try but the value of the pound and the stalling economy doesn't count as we haven't left yet. A low currancy value can actually stimulate economy growth and is fantastic for exporters.

There will obviously be less regulation as we only have to worry about regulating ourselves and don't have to comply with the regulations of everyone else.

And great, i'm happy with taking our time over trade deals, but I don't think the other remainers share that view.

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