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Brexit again...


Davebrad

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There is nothing wrong with having another confirmatory vote.

We've been around the block before on this one.

To repeat myself. Democracy isn't fixed in stone from 2016. It changes and moves forwards.

Mature adults are allowed to re-think and change their minds.

If you agree with your doctor that you'll have a serious operation in a few months time they'll ask you again to sign for permission and to see if you are sure you want to proceed.

As David Davis said, "If a democracy cannot change its mind it ceases to be a democracy." It's about the only thing he's got right.

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How could a second referendum be a negation of democracy? We're three years on from the first and we are now a lot clearer on what Brexit would involve - and it would be almost certain to be no deal. If you take the share of the vote in last week's election, the Leave parties are outvoted by some 6% by those proposing Remain. A case for another vote if ever there was one - whether referendum or general election only time will tell.

But there has been a massive shift to Leave in these elections, H.

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But there has been a massive shift to Leave in these elections, H.

 

Virtually a dead heat between Brexit and Remain parties, based on what 40% of the electorate voting, what would a confirmation referendum give will be based on the terms at the time with a full scale turnout.

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Virtually a dead heat between Brexit and Remain parties, based on what 40% of the electorate voting, what would a confirmation referendum give will be based on the terms at the time with a full scale turnout.

Too many parties joining together to form a remain party Fosse.Labour/SNP/Green/LibDem alliance is not realistic.Leave or Remain with a bigger turnout is anyone’s guess as to the outcome.Word it how they like the choice will be same,Remain or Leave.

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Ok but lets say there's another referendum and it's 51% remain 49% leave - what happens then?

 

What happens if it's 52-48 to remain?

 

If the EU election has told us anything it is that a magical second referendum will not resolve anything.

 

I can just about get on board with a referendum of brexit options (remain can not be an option).

 

Any attempt to overturn the result is not acceptable and will simply divide the country further.

 

That's not a reason for not having a second vote.

 

It's clear that the majority no longer want to leave, while at the same time a sizeable minority do. Unlike the Leavers, who with their narrow 2016 majority are still prepared to force us out come what may, it should mean that at least we call a halt to Brexit as it's currently constituted. Then we take time - years if it takes that long - for the Government and EU to come up with an arrangement that satisfies all but the most rabid on both sides.

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There is nothing wrong with having another confirmatory vote.

We've been around the block before on this one.

To repeat myself. Democracy isn't fixed in stone from 2016. It changes and moves forwards.

Mature adults are allowed to re-think and change their minds.

If you agree with your doctor that you'll have a serious operation in a few months time they'll ask you again to sign for permission and to see if you are sure you want to proceed.

As David Davis said, "If a democracy cannot change its mind it ceases to be a democracy." It's about the only thing he's got right.

 

Democracy hasn't changed its mind though.

 

The losing side has refused to accept the result for 3 years and counting.

 

If we have another vote and it's 52% remain, what happens then? Answer that question.

 

Are the brexiters expected to accept it and move on inside of the EU?

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Too many parties joining together to form a remain party Fosse.Labour/SNP/Green/LibDem alliance is not realistic.Leave or Remain with a bigger turnout is anyone’s guess as to the outcome.Word it how they like the choice will be same,Remain or Leave.

 

They don't have to join together for a referendum. Last night they were in balance the Libs, Greens, and Change polled similar scale votes as Brexit & UKIP.

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That's not a reason for not having a second vote.

 

It's clear that the majority no longer want to leave, while at the same time a sizeable minority do. Unlike the Leavers, who with their narrow 2016 majority are still prepared to force us out come what may, it should mean that at least we call a halt to Brexit as it's currently constituted. Then we take time - years if it takes that long - for the Government and EU to come up with an arrangement that satisfies all but the most rabid on both sides.

 

I never particularly wanted a 2nd referendum but last night swung it for me. I don't think there's any way to progress without one. I think No Deal should be an option, as well as remain, and maybe an agreement to reconsider in a decade or so, although that in itself could lead to further instability. Can't see the next tory leader ever agreeing to it though.

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They don't have to join together for a referendum. Last night they were in balance the Libs, Greens, and Change polled similar scale votes as Brexit & UKIP.

 

Yes I understand that but campaigns would have to be from the same hymn sheet.You could argue that the Tories have tried to Leave and may well campaign to do so in another referendum.

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I never particularly wanted a 2nd referendum but last night swung it for me. I don't think there's any way to progress without one. I think No Deal should be an option, as well as remain, and maybe an agreement to reconsider in a decade or so, although that in itself could lead to further instability. Can't see the next tory leader ever agreeing to it though.

I don't think there is any way of avoiding instability, the can of worms was opened. Staying keeps Farage at the BBC for say 10 years to the 4th referendum, Leaving keeps arguments over trade deals with a poorer economy going for 10 years at least also.

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Democracy hasn't changed its mind though.

 

The losing side has refused to accept the result for 3 years and counting.

 

If we have another vote and it's 52% remain, what happens then? Answer that question.

 

Are the brexiters expected to accept it and move on inside of the EU?

 

If you lose a vote or an election you don't meekly fall into rank like a sheep and suddenly become a hard-line No Deal leaver. You stick to your views if you still think that's the best way to go.

 

Several things have happened in the last 3 years.

We've belatedly realised that it isn't very simple and easy to leave a club that has given us unrivalled economic growth for 50 years without the risk of damaging the economy, which on top of ten years of austerity is a daft thing to propose.

We've also seen leavers changing their minds and moving towards a No Deal Brexit when many of them before the vote were talking about staying in some kind of economic union.

There are dozens of ways of interpreting Brexit. And that's why, in my view, the Commons has been so split on the process. Most MPs fear that a crashing out of the EU will cause harm. And it's ok for wealthy stockbrokers to tell everyone we should leave - because they are cushioned from reality - but most voters aren't and it's a huge risk when so much of our business is with the EU.

We voted for something that was undeliverable in the way in which Brexiteers proposed. It isn't easy, as they said. We won't get £350 million a week for the NHS. We can't easily replicate trade deals out of thin air. We are not suddenly going to be awash with money. Immigration will not stop.

 

Sadly, the genie is out of the bottle now and Cameron needs lynching twice over. We should have fought harder for our needs, like Thatcher with the rebate. We ought to have shown everyone how beneficial EU membership has been despite its faults.

And we ought to have done what the Tories have done with union votes: that is have a minimum turnout and a threshold for success. It's too late now but 52:48 is not enough to fundamentally change economic tack. But I would say that wouldn't I?

 

The whole things annoys me because we have lots of pressing problems but have spent three years in limbo arguing the toss and wasting billions of pounds in a way that would make Chris Grayling look like a miser. It's split the country. It won't now go away.

Although turnout on Thursday was abysmal and shows that most people are not interested at all.

 

A soft Brexit preserving our economic links with the EU I can live with. But not a No Deal crash and burn scenario in a million years. That's stupidity of the highest order. We've done fine economically in the EU so why on earth risk changing something that has been so good for us?

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If you lose a vote or an election you don't meekly fall into rank like a sheep and suddenly become a hard-line No Deal leaver. You stick to your views if you still think that's the best way to go.

 

Several things have happened in the last 3 years.

We've belatedly realised that it isn't very simple and easy to leave a club that has given us unrivalled economic growth for 50 years without the risk of damaging the economy, which on top of ten years of austerity is a daft thing to propose.

We've also seen leavers changing their minds and moving towards a No Deal Brexit when many of them before the vote were talking about staying in some kind of economic union.

There are dozens of ways of interpreting Brexit. And that's why, in my view, the Commons has been so split on the process. Most MPs fear that a crashing out of the EU will cause harm. And it's ok for wealthy stockbrokers to tell everyone we should leave - because they are cushioned from reality - but most voters aren't and it's a huge risk when so much of our business is with the EU.

We voted for something that was undeliverable in the way in which Brexiteers proposed. It isn't easy, as they said. We won't get £350 million a week for the NHS. We can't easily replicate trade deals out of thin air. We are not suddenly going to be awash with money. Immigration will not stop.

 

Sadly, the genie is out of the bottle now and Cameron needs lynching twice over. We should have fought harder for our needs, like Thatcher with the rebate. We ought to have shown everyone how beneficial EU membership has been despite its faults.

And we ought to have done what the Tories have done with union votes: that is have a minimum turnout and a threshold for success. It's too late now but 52:48 is not enough to fundamentally change economic tack. But I would say that wouldn't I?

 

The whole things annoys me because we have lots of pressing problems but have spent three years in limbo arguing the toss and wasting billions of pounds in a way that would make Chris Grayling look like a miser. It's split the country. It won't now go away.

Although turnout on Thursday was abysmal and shows that most people are not interested at all.

 

A soft Brexit preserving our economic links with the EU I can live with. But not a No Deal crash and burn scenario in a million years. That's stupidity of the highest order. We've done fine economically in the EU so why on earth risk changing something that has been so good for us?

 

There really isn't more than one interpretation of brexit. Honestly that is so disingenuous.

 

Brexit won because people want to be governed in the UK. Any outcome other than a full sovereign UK government is therefore not what the majority of people want.

 

There is no soft brexit.

 

Brexit = leaving every institution over which the EU has sovereign power. The only discussion to be had was whether or not we can arrange a trade deal with the EU and potentially include the sharing of security information and a deal to not require visas for our citizens and their citizens. We were also prepared to pay a "divorce" settlement.

 

The EU has refused to negotiate these things without them having sovereign power over us.

 

I believe that with enough pressure they will have to cave although that pressure will come from the French and German voters when they start paying significantly more tax to make up for the second biggest net contributor leaving, and Ireland is absolutely ****** if we leave with no deal too.

 

No deal brexit is not a final position. That's what you are refusing to acknowledge. No deal brexit is a clean break and it gives us the advantage in future negotiations.

 

Furthermore, I'm not sure how you can sing the praises of economy within the EU when they literally bail out whole countries regularly. I have worked with lots of Spanish and Greek citizens and they've told me how impossible it is to earn a living in those countries.

 

The problem is that the remain argument simply doesn't have a positive message for staying in the EU because there isn't one. That's why you cling on to this guess that we'll be worse off economically.

 

Why have we needed 10 years of austerity when our EU protected economy has been booming by the way?

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Yanis Varoufakis posited a fairly sensible outcome, in my view, and despite his left-wing ways he has correctly diagnosed the ills of both the Eurozone and austerity fairly succintly.

 

His view is, that we leave the EU with a permanent customs union in place. The economy is spared any hit and we can then discern how much sovereignty we have retained, whether we do have freedom to negotiate our own trade deals, more time to deal with Ireland, evaluation of the ECJ etc etc

 

In the next 2-3 years, a public forum is established, which ensures representation of views from all four UK nations and all walks of life, including your de-industrialised northern cities. These events are held semi-regularly in a variety of locations, often themed. As time passes, people can begin to judge whether they like Brexit with a customs union, whether they want to extend Brexit to a hard Brexit, or whether they want to seek to start the process to re-apply to join the EU.

 

Throughout the course of these debates/fora, a general consensus is built up as to what people's main feelings are. If the public is satisfied with Brexit via a customs union, we carry on. If the public don't like it and want to re-apply for EU membership, a second referendum can be held upon that. If, conversely, the public wishes to seek a harder Brexit, withdrawing from the Customs Union, then a referendum can occur on that.

 

As a consequence, a form of soft Brexit occurs, and time and space is given to the people to decide if they like it or not. Should it be OK, we carry on. If, given time, evidence, and experience, things want to change one way or another, a referendum can be set at the end of a 3 year transition period, to ensure we get what we want.

 

In my view, that's the only way forward. The Government isn't going to preside over a Brexit that hurts the economy; instead, have a soft Brexit, hold a forum to engage the masses in what is now a largely anti-establishment population, and then re-assess at the end of a defined transition period.

 

At the present, half of the country is going to be annoyed if we continue down this path of 'hard Brexit or no Brexit'. Theresa May was woefully incompetent but her departing adage that 'compromise is not a dirty word' is especially prescient at this time.

 

To sum up; soft Brexit with a Customs Union, on 31st October 2019. 3 year transition period set up, concluding on 31st October 2022, that will allow the country time to re-focus on domestic issues and see how a soft Brexit impacts them, and whether they wish to go further on the Hard Brexit route, stick with what they've got, or go back to the EU. Forums are held, with an independent body of fact-checkers, in which people can voice their opinions and have complex questions broken down and answered in a digestible way, away from rhetoric, slogan, and hopefully emotion and division. Brexit occurs in the most non-damaging way, and time is given to establish our future relationship.

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That seems very reasonable. Problem is, the right of the Conservative party will never ever go for it. The puce faced gammon that comprises their membership would be having coronaries. Also, I don't feel that the likes of the ERG are particularly bothered about an economically damaging Brexit. They are either so insulated from it or will actually profit.

I also doubt that the #fbpe lot will countenance leaving Europe in any form even in the more sensible way you've described.

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