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johnstreet

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  • Birthday 16/09/1964

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  1. just jumping into the discussion, and I like the thrust of the above.. But just querying the accuracy of the 99.9% of people that survive? Is it true? In the uk? Presently it may be almost correct, but the virus has not been halted yet. That would mean that 1 in 1000 people would have died by the end of the pandemic in this country? If we take the released figures for covid deaths so far in the uk, and 'assume' they are accurate (latest figure 75,431 up to today), as per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Stated uk population currently is 68,067,881; 68067881 divided by 75431 = already, 1 in 902 people in this country have died, who tested positive for covid within the last 28 days before death. Now, there is a fair bit of scope for figures, and I'm sure figures will be tweaked in the future, and it would be great if the roll-out of a vaccine has an immediate effect on the death-rate, but it would seem that already the figure (at least in this country) is lower than 99.9% 'survivability' (not by much, currently 99.89%, but that figure will only lower with every extra death in the uk, sadly...). When you say it quickly, 99% surviving doesn't sound too bad, but would add up to 680 thousand dead here. To get things into some football perspective, we're not far off the whole of wembley stadium being filled by the current victims of this disease (89974 largest recorded 'new wembley' crowd)- at current daily 7-day rolling average death rates, it would only take a month more here (approx) ... Another interesting unknown is how many people have already acquired some immunity? If we assumed only tested/ positive covid people have immunity after recovery, and that rates of infection continue at the current high figure of 50,000 positive tests a day, it would still take a further 1,361 days for everyone in the uk to have become infected/ immune. Yes, people need their freedom, too, I really hope one or more of the vaccines work.
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